Aston Villa’s rollercoaster season arguably hit its lowest point this week after a 4-1 defeat against Crystal Palace, which dropped them to 10th in the Premier League.
Despite their inconsistency domestically, they are just four points adrift of fifth place — likely to guarantee a second season in a row at Europe’s top table — and are into the last 16 of the Champions League, too.
January signings Marco Asensio and Marcus Rashford sparked their recent comeback against Chelsea, but failed to make an impact off the bench at Selhurst Park.
On the The Athletic FC Podcast this week, Ayo Akinwolere was joined by Villa beat writer Jacob Tanswell and Rory Smith to ask whether bringing Asensio and Rashford to Villa Park were risks worth taking.
A partial transcript has been edited for clarity and length. The full episode is available on YouTube below or via The Athletic FC Podcast feed on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Ayo: Do you think (Asensio and Rashford) are a bit of a gamble? This is an expensive experiment. If the club is predicted to go on the trajectory it wants to, surely they have to be in the Champions League next season?
Jacob: They do have to go all in on the Champions League because if you look at their revenue, Villa made a big celebration of being in the top-20 clubs globally for revenue. But a lot of that is because of the Champions League and unlocking the riches that come with it. If you look at their commercial revenue, it’s half of West Ham and 96 per cent of their wage-to-turnover ratio is spent on wages. The next highest in the top 20 is Chelsea at 72 per cent, so the difference is huge. If Villa drop away from the Champions League, the whole club — commercially, revenue, appeal, the players they can buy and PSR (profit and sustainability rules) — will all be impacted.
Ayo: What do you reckon, Rory? You said you thought their business was good. But if they don’t make the Champions League and keep that money coming in… obviously Newcastle have been in this position before. But this is massive considering they’re putting down potentially 90 per cent of Rashford’s fees.
Rory: Yeah, but it’s only on loan, that’s what was smart about it. I don’t think they’d have spent that money on Donyell Malen if they knew how the market would play out. They’re reacting and being opportunistic to an extent, which isn’t meant as a criticism — it’s a useful skill in the market. Some clubs aren’t opportunistic enough these days and are too strategised and rigid in their thinking.
But I worry about Villa’s financial position. I was on the radio the other day with Paul Robinson, the former Leeds United goalkeeper. He’s massively anti-PSR, he really doesn’t like it. I was genuinely surprised because he would have been at Leeds, maybe not playing for them, but there when they collapsed — the club would have been saved by PSR. Villa and Newcastle hold themselves up as the two clubs suffering the most. But Villa are an example that despite the risks you’re taking by pushing against the limits, there are benefits. There are also drawbacks to the rules, no one’s disputing that, but there are benefits.
Villa have consistently voted against cost control measures at the Premier League level. They’re aligned with Newcastle and Manchester City in saying, ‘We want a free-for-all.’ But the risk of a free-for-all comes if it doesn’t work. If you assume that money is going to keep on rolling, if you think it’s sunny every day and there’ll never be a rainy day, great. Pump in as much money as you like. The problem comes if you don’t meet your budgetary expectations or chase something and fall short because football doesn’t have that many guardrails. If you get rid of all of them, you’re playing with the futures of the clubs.
Villa were smart to get Asensio and Rashford on loan, but I presume if they don’t make the Champions League, those deals are off the table. Even then, Villa have an issue. Not because PSR exists, they have an issue because they’ve already spent so much money. I find it weird how that bit is always left out of the conversation because it’s not like Newcastle and Villa have only signed free transfers and built everything organically with completely home-grown players. They’ve spent an absolute shedload of money in the last few years to get to where they are.
Villa have pushed right to the limit. The problem with pushing right to the limit is that if you don’t meet your expectations and things happen over a season that is not in your interest — as happens in sport because sport does not owe you a happy ending — then you can have a severe financial problem. At that point, you have to cut your cloth accordingly. This might mean Villa have to cash in on someone they don’t want to sell so they can strengthen the squad again. That is not ideal for them, but it’s probably better than the alternative of just throwing money at it endlessly and hoping for the best.
You can listen to full episodes of The Athletic FC Podcast for free on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, and watch on YouTube.
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