Why is Rockets' Fred VanVleet shooting so poorly? Explaining what's going wrong

In the midst of Houston’s ongoing offensive inconsistencies, the question of shot quality versus shot accuracy becomes a “chicken or egg?” scenario, particularly for Fred VanVleet. Is a player missing shots he normally makes because of a shooting slump, or is there a deeper reason tied to the type of shots being taken?

Last week, subscriber Rick S. sent in a mailbag question about the veteran guard’s shooting struggles, which have plagued him all season. But it wasn’t simply the why that piqued my interest; it was the final sentence.

“What needs to be done?” Rick asked.

I’ve given this much thought since the Rockets were eliminated in the NBA Cup semifinals. Still, I believe VanVleet’s recent shooting struggles are a casualty of a) overreliance by Rockets coach Ime Udoka and b) the lack of a fluid offensive system.

Udoka’s trust in VanVleet correlates to how often he’s on the floor and the responsibilities he’s given, but you could argue it’s wearing on the veteran guard. In the last three weeks alone, VanVleet is averaging nearly 40 minutes a game, including two outings of 42 minutes and one of 45(!) minutes. He missed the Dec. 8 LA Clippers game with knee soreness and hasn’t looked right since returning, shooting 6-for-28 from the field and 3-for-20 from deep. On Thursday, VanVleet converted just two of his seven outside attempts against the New Orleans Pelicans.

Against the lowly Pelicans, VanVleet played the entire first quarter and ended up with 35 minutes in a 20-point blowout. It didn’t matter that the Rockets were facing the worst team in the Western Conference, Udoka’s dependence on VanVleet is unrelenting.

VanVleet, a career 37 percent 3-point shooter who converted 38.7 percent of his 3s last season, should eventually regain his form.  However, other factors play into his offensive efficiency, including health and overall wear and tear.

Simply put, VanVleet needs easier created shots within Udoka’s system, which has proven to be difficult given how much the Rockets depend on him to initiate offense for others. Udoka can regularly be heard on the sidelines calling for VanVleet to retrieve the ball and push the tempo. During VanVleet’s Toronto days — notably his 2021-22 All-Star campaign — the Raptors had Pascal Siakam and Scottie Barnes, jumbo wings comfortable operating with the ball in their hands. Because of this, VanVleet could start possessions on the ball, relocate and still get wide-open looks (Toronto also had underrated screen-setters who were adept at sealing).

So what has happened in Houston? While players like Jalen Green, Amen Thompson and Alperen Şengün are capable creators, none of them have the elite ball handling VanVleet has, which often results in Udoka putting everything in the guard’s hands — even down to after-timeout (ATO) sets where VanVleet is the player making the inbounds pass.

Consider this: The Rockets had a late-quarter lineup against the Pelicans that featured Thompson, Reed Sheppard and Aaron Holiday — all ballhandlers — but Udoka still had VanVleet on the floor as the supervisor. As a Raptor, VanVleet was seldom responsible for setting up ATOs and could focus on his best attribute — shooting the leather off the ball.

As a result, VanVleet’s catch-and-shoot attempts this season are down. According to NBA.com tracking data, he’s averaging a shade over three per game this season. Before arriving in Houston, VanVleet enjoyed a healthy amount of such shots:

• 2020-21: 4.9 3s
• 2021-22: 4.6
• 2022-23: 4.3

For reference, according to Synergy, 7 percent of VanVleet’s offense in 2021 came off screens, 19.1 percent came on spot-up looks and 34 percent came as a pick-and-roll ballhandler. In his two seasons in Houston, those numbers have changed drastically: 2.8 percent off screens, 15.8 percent off spot-ups and 40.9 percent coming via pick-and-roll.

“It’s been a big difference,” VanVleet told The Athletic.  It’s a different role. My game has changed a lot in the last year or so, but my goal coming in was to bring guys along with me. I think ultimately we’ll have multiple guys that can get us into sets, initiate offense and create shots for me. But starting off, Coach (Udoka) put the onus on me to handle the ball, get us settled down and into spots. I’ve been doing that, something that’s been different for me, but something I’m enjoying.

“It gives me a different approach in terms of how I need to get my own offense. That’s why it’s been a little inconsistent at times. But I’ll find my way and continue to shoot the ball better — and the numbers will look better.”

There needs to be more variety in the Rockets’ half-court offensive scheme — quicker actions, more off-ball screens and faster tempo — but lessening the load on VanVleet should be a priority. And it doesn’t require a complete overhaul of what’s already in place.

A chunk of VanVleet’s lack of rhythm stems from his teammates’ recognition or lack thereof. In a Rockets utopia, Udoka envisions several players who are comfortable handling playmaking duties in bunches, freeing up VanVleet to move off the ball and find open shots. But even without that happening, there are times when a simple extra pass can go a long way.

Take Şengün, for example. The fourth-year big sees frequent doubles nightly, regardless of where he has the ball on the court. Because most times he’s the person involved in pick-and-roll action with VanVleet, they are on the same side of the floor. When Şengün recognizes VanVleet’s defender inching away from him and towards the restricted area, VanVleet is typically in an opportune area to punish said gamble.

The issue, though, is that this happens infrequently. More often than not, the Rockets find themselves in half-court predicaments like the possession below. Again, VanVleet’s defender (CJ McCollum) moves away from him and towards Şengün in the paint. Şengün doesn’t get the ball out in time, and once he does, Trey Murphy, a 6-foot-8 forward with a 7-foot wingspan, is already in VanVleet’s airspace.

Pay attention to VanVleet, particularly what he does after the play is ruled dead. He claps at Şengün, urging him to get the ball to him quicker, and the center apologizes.

Another possible tweak is having VanVleet inbound the ball less. The Rockets haven’t been efficient at creating offense from these scenarios, ranking in the 47th percentile on ATOs, 13th percentile on sideline out-of-bounds plays (SLOBs) and 20th percentile on baseline out-of-bounds plays (BLOBs), according to Synergy. Of the latter, which has occurred 69 times so far this season, VanVleet was the passer on 25 of them. Of the 44 times he wasn’t, he wasn’t event on the floor in 25.

Everything boils down to managing not only how often VanVleet is on the floor, but also how he’s utilized when he is. Currently, the Rockets have him on a “12-6-12-6” plan, meaning he’s on the court for the duration of the first and third quarters and six minutes in the second and fourth. According to Cleaning the Glass, VanVleet’s usage of 21.8 percent is the lowest it’s been in six seasons, yet his 99.2 points per 100 shot attempts is nearly 17 points less than last season and the lowest since his rookie season.

But if this is the floor, during an 18-9 season, there are worse starting points to have. Houston recorded a season-high 34 assists against New Orleans and hit 17 of 39 3s, good for 43.6 percent. There’s been a concerted effort to move the ball following their dismal showing in the NBA Cup semifinal, but as it pertains to VanVleet and improving his overall effectiveness, there needs to be a marriage between the system, the moving pieces and development of those around him.

“That would be the perfect formula,” Udoka said. “Take some of the stress off him. Alperen’s a hub down in the post that creates shots for other guys, but the more Amen (Thompson), Dillon (Brooks), Tari (Eason), Jalen (Green) and those guys grow, he can play off ball and be the recipient of some of those easy shots — which will be beneficial for him. Obviously, to keep his legs fresh throughout the game. You want to be the recipient of some catch-and-shoot (looks) and easy shots, instead of having to be the initiator or creator every time.”

(Photo: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)