Seasonally adjusted EV values for November 2024 continued to show stronger depreciation trends and fell by 11.4%
Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) were higher in November than in October, according to the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) released Dec. 6.
The index rose to 205.4, an increase of 0.2% from a year ago. The seasonal adjustment to the index amplified the change for the month, as non-seasonally adjusted values declined slightly. The non-adjusted price in November decreased by 0.1% compared to October, moving the unadjusted average price down 1% year over year.
“Wholesale values gave back a little bit of the strength we saw earlier in the month but depreciated less than what we normally see in November,” said Jeremy Robb, senior director of economic and industry insights at Cox Automotive, in a news release. “The Thanksgiving holiday usually slows down the market, and it did this year, although it was very late in the month from a timing perspective. This slowdown caused a slightly sharper decline in values at month-end than usual. However, tight supply in wholesale and retail markets will support healthy dealer demand through the year’s final month.”
In November, Manheim Market Report (MMR) values saw weekly decreases every week, with larger declines seen in the last two weeks of the month. Over the last four weeks, the Three-Year-Old Index decreased an aggregate of 0.9%, including a drop of 0.3% in each of the last two weeks of the month. Those same four weeks delivered an average decrease of 1.2% between 2014 and 2019, indicating depreciation trends were less than typical, especially earlier in the month.
In November, daily MMR Retention, the average difference in price relative to the current MMR, was 99.6%, meaning market prices moved much closer to MMR values in November and were higher than October levels. Compared to November 2023, valuation models were higher by six-tenths of a point on MMR retention and one-tenth of a point higher than 2019 levels for the same period.
The average daily sales conversion rate fell to 55.6%, a decline of one point against last month yet much higher than normal at this time of year. For comparison, the daily sales conversion rate averaged 50.7% in November over the last three years. November typically shows a lower conversion rate due to the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.
Used Vehicle Prices Mostly Down YOY
Most major market segments experienced seasonally adjusted prices that were down year over year in November, although sedans bucked the trend and rose. Compared to November 2023, the midsize sedan segment was the only group to outperform the market, rising by 0.3%. Performing worse than the overall industry, SUVs fell just 0.2%, compact cars and luxury were down 1.4%, and pickups continued showing the most depreciation, declining by 2.3% year over year.
A few segments performed better than the industry overall compared to October. The luxury segment rose 1.7% against October 2024, and SUVs gained 1.5%. While all segments rose against the prior month, several rose less than the industry, as midsize sedans increased by 0.9%, pickups increased by 0.6%, and compact cars rose just 0.2%.
Looking at the market by powertrain, both electric vehicles (EVs) and non-EVs were higher against October. Seasonally adjusted EV values for November 2024 continued to show stronger depreciation trends and fell by 11.4%, while non-EVs were down only 0.1% year over year.
Looking at the change against October, seasonally adjusted EV values rose less than the overall market, increasing by 0.2% from October 2024, while non-EVs showed more appreciation, rising 1.3% over the same period.
Retail Used-Vehicle Sales Increased in November
Assessing retail vehicle sales based on observed changes in units tracked by vAuto, initial estimates of retail used-vehicle sales in November were up 5% compared to October and higher year over year by 15%. A used vehicle’s average retail listing price increased 0.4% over the last four weeks.
Using estimates of retail used days’ supply based on vAuto data, an initial assessment indicates November ended at 46 days’ supply, down one day from 47 days at the end of October and down nine days from November 2023 at 55 days.
New-vehicle sales in November were up 10.1% from last year, and volume increased 1.3% from October. The November sales pace, or seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), came in at 16.5 million, up 1.0 million from last year’s pace and higher than October’s revised 16.3 million level.
Combined sales into large rental, commercial, and government fleets decreased 4.6% year over year in November. Including an estimate for fleet deliveries into dealer and manufacturer channels, the remaining new retail sales were estimated to be up 15.5% from last year, leading to an estimated retail SAAR of 13.6 million, up 5.3% from last year’s pace and up from October’s estimated 13.5 million level. Fleet share was estimated to be 12.6%, down from last year’s 16.7% share.
Rental Risk Price and Mileage Results Higher in November
The average price for rental risk units sold at auction in November increased 0.8% year over year. Rental risk prices also rose by 0.7% compared to October. Average mileage for rental risk units in November (at 48,700 miles) rose just 0.6% for the month against last year’s level. For November, rental unit average mileage was down 7.3% from October 2024.
Measures of Consumer Confidence Improved in November
- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased 2.8% in November, about as expected, and October’s index was revised higher. Consumers’ views of the present and the future both improved. Consumer confidence was up 10.6% year over year. Plans to purchase a vehicle in the next six months declined slightly from the highest level since December 2019 in October but remained much higher year over year.
- The sentiment index from the University of Michigan increased 1.8% in November, which was lower than expected as the earlier reading in November was higher. With the final monthly increase, the index was up 17% year over year. The underlying views of current conditions and future expectations moved in different directions, with current conditions declining and consumer expectations improving to the best level since March. Expectations for inflation in one year declined to 2.6% from 2.7%, but expectations for inflation in five years increased to 3.2% from 3.0%. Consumers’ views of buying conditions for vehicles declined as interest rates declined, but the view of buying conditions remained much better than a year ago.
- Morning Consult’s daily consumer sentiment index extended its streak of increases to five straight monthly gains. The index was up 5.6% for the month, leaving it up 16.5% year over year.
- According to AAA, the national average price for unleaded gas was $3.05 per gallon in November, down 2.3% from the end of October and 6% year over year.
