When the season began, the Penguins wanted to reach the playoffs.
That’s always their goal — it’s why they spend to the very top of the salary cap — and it’s always going to be a goal of sorts for a franchise that has won the Stanley Cup five times in the past 33 years.
Make no mistake, though: Reality has set in for the organization’s front office.
Trading Lars Eller is only the beginning, so long as the Penguins’ current trend continues. General manager/president of hockey operations Kyle Dubas’ team is 7-10-3 after blowing a three-goal lead against the lowly San Jose Sharks on PPG Paints Arena ice, only to emerge with two points in a shootout victory. The front office saw last week’s schedule as an opportunity for the Penguins to make a dent in the standings. Instead, they were blown out in Columbus, barely beat San Jose and lost in overtime to Detroit, giving the Penguins only three out of a possible six points against three of the league’s worst teams.
Call it a dirty little secret if you want, but the Penguins are one of the league’s worst teams. Players and coaches refuse to see it that way, but the front office sees it.
So, what happens next?
The Penguins are planning to stay in sell mode for a while. It started last season when half-hearted discussions with Jake Guentzel and his agent, Ben Hankinson, turned into an inevitable trade to the Carolina Hurricanes.
Then, the Penguins traded Eller.
More deals are very clearly going to follow. Sidney Crosby isn’t going anywhere, and he’s not the only untouchable on the roster. The same can be said of Evgeni Malkin, who has a full no-trade clause in his deal. Malkin has no intentions of playing elsewhere, nor do the Penguins have any interest in moving him. Crosby and Malkin are intent on finishing their careers in Pittsburgh, and management is in favor of it.
Kris Letang might be the most interesting player in this equation.
While he signed a six-year deal with the Penguins in 2022 with a desire to finish his career in Pittsburgh, I’ve never sensed from Letang that playing for a different franchise would trouble him the way it would Crosby and Malkin.
It would be in the Penguins’ best interest to move his contract if possible. The big question is whether other teams would be interested in his contract. While his resume speaks for itself — there’s a strong chance he’ll someday be enshrined in the Hockey Hall of Fame — he’s 37, comes with a significant health history and has played poorly this season.
Trading Letang would certainly shake up the Penguins’ locker room, their financial situation and so much more. Will it happen this season? Probably not, but I wouldn’t rule it out entirely. If one of the Big Three is to move on, it will almost certainly be Letang.
• Who else will be on the move? It’s basically common sense at this point, and it comes in categories.
There are the players Dubas would be happy to move but other teams likely aren’t interested in: Ryan Graves, Tristan Jarry and Erik Karlsson.
Then, there are the players who are likely to be traded before the deadline.
Marcus Pettersson is the most likely candidate to be on the move. League sources said the Edmonton Oilers and Vancouver Canucks have interest in the lanky defenseman, and there’s every reason to believe other teams will covet him. In the final year of his contract, Pettersson is set to break the bank when free agency opens next summer. The Penguins value Pettersson, but they value replenishing their system considerably more. This is essentially the Guentzel situation all over again.
Pettersson is as good as gone.
There’s a good chance Rickard Rakell, Pettersson’s fellow Swede and close friend, will also be gone sooner rather than later. He’s had a strong start to the season and his contract doesn’t serve the Penguins particularly well moving forward. Teams covet top-six wingers at the deadline. Rakell is not only a legitimate top-six winger capable of scoring 30 goals annually, but he’s also functional at left and right wing, which adds to his value.
Along with Letang, Bryan Rust is the most interesting of the Penguins’ potential trade chips. The respected veteran still has a full no-trade clause on his contract until the end of the 2024-25 season. In other words, he can veto any trade until July 1. I suspect he would do that, and I also don’t sense that the Penguins are in a great rush to deal him. The organization loves Rust, who is the only member of the 2016 and 2017 Stanley Cup teams not named Crosby, Malkin or Letang remaining.
The Penguins know Crosby loves playing with Rust. They also don’t want to completely deprive him of dependable wingers. Rust recently purchased Guentzel’s home in the Pittsburgh area. He isn’t eager to leave and is as loyal as they come. He’s a Penguin and a proud one.
Don’t expect the Penguins to ask Rust to waive his no-trade clause. And don’t expect him to do it if they ask.
Next season? Things could get interesting. There will be no shortage of teams interested in his services, and, again, the Penguins are in a rebuild even if they won’t publicly say it.
• It wasn’t easy for the coaching staff to make Graves a healthy scratch on Saturday because he has been playing better than last season and the staff has made a concerted effort to build Graves’ confidence. Healthy scratches don’t typically make a player feel better about his performance.
That said, it was time to get a look at Owen Pickering. He played a pretty strong game in his NHL debut against the Sharks, and the organization is excited about his progress. After being drafted in 2022, Pickering’s play dropped and there were some concerns in the organization that GM Ron Hextall had reached to take him with the 21st pick.
Those fears have since been replaced by optimism. Pickering was a much different player at training camp this season and, still only 20, appears to be well on his way to becoming a good NHL player.
Given the state of the Penguins’ blue line, and that Pettersson doesn’t figure to be in Pittsburgh for more than a couple of months, it seems likely that Penguins fans will see their share of Pickering soon.
• On the surface, Jarry’s performance wasn’t so good in his return to the NHL. The Penguins had Jarry make his return on the road in Columbus to alleviate some pressure — a smart and thoughtful move. He responded, of course, by allowing a goal on the first shot he saw and two of the first three.
To be fair, both shots were deflected. The Penguins were more disgusted with the defensive work in front of Jarry as opposed to his performance, and the plan is for Jarry to continue receiving playing time.
• There is concern within the organization that fans won’t respond favorably to a public admission of entering a rebuild. Personally, I think fans will respond well to it. These are smart hockey fans.
(Photo of Kris Letang and Marcus Pettersson: Claus Andersen and Christian Petersen / Getty Images)
