The unpredictability of sports makes it rare for events to result in a perfect scenario. Make it the NFL Draft — perhaps the king of unpredictability — and it’s borderline impossible for the ideal outcome.
But what if things did take a flawless path next week for the Dallas Cowboys? What would the perfect draft look like for them? Let’s try to create that road map while maintaining a healthy dose of reality.
The toughest element of predicting the full scope of the draft is the infinite variables involved. Sure, we know what the Cowboys need but which players will be available each time they go on the clock? What does their master draft board look like? Those are questions we have no way of knowing until the moment arrives. With that being the case, we won’t make exact player selections but instead, analyze in broader terms.
Make the pick at No. 12
Ideally, the Cowboys make a selection at No. 12. Based on recent history, that would appear to be their most likely scenario. Dallas has stayed put and made its first-round selection eight of the last 10 times it picked in the first round. It is worth noting that the Cowboys traded back in the first round in two of their last four drafts. In 2021, their desired cornerbacks flew off the board just ahead of them and they traded back, ending up with Micah Parsons in the first round and Chauncey Golston with their extra pick. In 2024, they traded back and drafted Tyler Guyton and selected Cooper Beebe with the extra pick.
While trading back is always a popular desire, especially for a team with as many holes as the Cowboys, the top of this draft is relatively lean. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler values just 13 prospects with pure first-round grades. Picking at No. 12 virtually guarantees the Cowboys landing a true first-round talent, while moving back, even a few spots, puts them at risk of using their first-round pick on a lower-graded talent. The Cowboys have enough needs to use one of the premier players in this draft class. The extra Day 2 pick could be useful in filling immediate needs, but it could result in the Cowboys coming out of the draft without any top-tier talents.
Tetairoa McMillan is perhaps the most popular mock draft selection for the Cowboys at No. 12, if he’s still on the board. Brugler took Texas WR Matthew Golden at No. 12 in his seven-round mock this week. Depending on where the quarterbacks go, there could be an edge rusher, offensive tackle or a few other players at different positions who could be available. Aside from tight end, any of those positions is a good option for Dallas.
Dallas hasn’t traded up in the first round since 2012, when it moved up to No. 6 and took LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne. There are a handful of players that if they tumbled into the No. 5 to 10 range that could be worth the consideration, but it’s hard to imagine the player and price to pay lining up to be worthwhile.
Get a running back in Round 2
We’ve said before that the Cowboys should come out of Day 2 with their RB1. Ideally, that selection comes before the second half of Day 2 begins.
There are valid points when it comes to the running game. It is certainly true that regardless of who the running back is, it won’t matter much unless the offensive line is better than it was last year. It’s also true that four of the five spots on the offensive line are pretty locked in, at least to begin the season.
Could the Cowboys target RB Quinshon Judkins in Round 2? (Samantha Madar / The Columbus Dispatch via Imagn Images)
Tyler Smith at left guard is a no-doubter. Beebe at center is a sure thing as well. Even if the Cowboys explored moving him, it would be to right guard. Regardless, Beebe will occupy one of the spots in the interior. The Cowboys are high on Guyton taking a big step forward at left tackle in Year 2. Outside of taking one of the top tackles in Round 1, right tackle Terence Steele will continue as the starter for at least another year. Right guard is a question, but it’s hard to imagine a guard being available in the second round who substantially elevates the entire unit to a different level.
The Cowboys need a legitimate top running back, and there should be a handful of talents available in the second round who fit the bill. Whether it’s selecting that player at No. 44 or sliding back to add a Day 3 selection, having RB1 on the books before the third round begins would fill one of the team’s biggest needs.
Add another Day 2 pick
Even without having their fourth-round pick because of the Jonathan Mingo trade, the Cowboys have a collection of Day 3 assets they can use to try to move up to a more favorable spot and choose quality over quantity. They have used some of those assets already to add to the roster, such as moving one of their fifth-rounders to land quarterback Joe Milton, one of their sixth-rounders to acquire cornerback Kaiir Elam and one of their seventh-rounders to acquire linebacker Kenneth Murray.
Still, Dallas has two fifth-rounders, two sixth-rounders and three seventh-rounders. While throwing seven darts on Day 3 isn’t the worst idea, packaging some of those picks to move into a Day 2 pick, or even a fourth-rounder, could help bridge the massive gap they currently have between picking at No. 76 in the third round and their next selection at No. 149 in the fifth round.
Come out of Day 2 with a starting cornerback
It’s hard to have concrete expectations for immediate impact on players selected in the fourth round and beyond. Last year’s fifth-round pick, cornerback Caelen Carson, is a good example. He joined a loaded defensive backfield and didn’t have many expectations for an immediate role. He was a pleasant surprise in training camp, but when injuries thrust him into a starting role during the season, it was clear that Carson wasn’t ready for that spotlight quite yet.
The Cowboys need a cornerback who is ready for the starting lineup, potentially as soon as Week 1. DaRon Bland is a staple on one side, but Trevon Diggs may not be ready for the start of the season and Jourdan Lewis’ departure in free agency leaves a hole in the slot.
Outside of Bland, the Cowboys’ strategy for their Nos. 2 and 3 cornerbacks involves a whole lot of hope, whether it’s with a change of scenery serving Elam well or Carson making a Year 2 jump. Adding somebody to fill in during Diggs’ absence or replace Lewis not only serves the team well in the short term, but also in the near future where contract situations could make things interesting at the position.
Add competition at defensive tackle
It’s hard to have big expectations for the Cowboys drafting at defensive tackle after their rough history in the draft at the position, but the current outlook is not great, so they have to keep trying. Last year, they took a flyer on Justin Rogers in the seventh round. Perhaps they try to get somebody they like earlier than that, but regardless, there should be at least one other body added to the mix in trying to find some hope next to Osa Odighizuwa.
(Top photo of Matthew Golden: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)