We’re right in the middle of the holiday season, meaning you’re probably still fighting off a turkey coma and/or dealing with overstimulated kids and/or planning your New Year’s party. What you’re probably not doing is obsessing about the NHL, which makes this the perfect time for my annual admission of all the ways I’ve been wrong so far this year. Pro tip: If you’re going to admit to being dumb, do it when nobody’s paying attention.
Bonus five: Things I was wrong about but it’s fine because nobody is reading this
5. I was wrong about all the same stuff we were all wrong about — Let’s get a bunch of these out of the way in one shot. No, I didn’t see the Rangers’ collapse coming, or the ascension of the Wild and (especially) Capitals, or the Bruins’ miserable start, or the absolute disaster in Nashville. Neither did you, or anyone else, so we don’t have to dwell on it.
4. I really thought the Penguins were done — This one’s tough because it’s not just something I was wrong about in the preseason. Even in late November, I was ready to write off the Penguins entirely. I’m still kind of tempted to, if we’re being honest. But Sid and friends keep grinding along, winning just enough to stay in the race and hold off the postmortems a lot of us have already prewritten.
3. I whiffed on the Kings — I figured they’d topped out as a mediocre team whose ceiling was first-round fodder for real contenders. And to be fair, maybe that still ends up being true. But the reality is I was pretty sure that even that best-case was a long shot, and that the Kings would take a step back to clear space in the West for someone new. I certainly didn’t see them spending the first half comfortably in the top 10.
2. I slept on the Jets, yet again — At this point, Winnipeg fans are probably celebrating whenever I’m hand-waving their team away since I’m almost always wrong. Last year, I didn’t truly get on the Jets bandwagon until well into the season (after being completely wrong about their offseason). This year, I apparently decided that five bad playoff games told me more than a full regular season had, even though I’m supposed to be the “don’t overreact to small samples” guy. Maybe I should switch to the NFL beat, where being pessimistic about the Jets never misses.
1. I didn’t think it could get this bad for Buffalo and Detroit — I certainly wasn’t an optimist. But when it came to the trio of young Atlantic teams that also includes Ottawa, I figured they’d at least stick around the race. The Senators have proven me right, but one out of three isn’t great. Unfortunately, one out of three is close to the win ratio for the Wings and Sabres, who’ve worked their way down to the floor of my expectations and grabbed a shovel. Then they’ve used the shovel to hit themselves over the head repeatedly.
Not listed: I have no idea what to make of the Canucks — I can’t say that I’m wrong about them, because I have no idea what they actually are, but I know that I’m very confused and I feel like I’m not alone. I know there’s drama between Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller, I know Thatcher Demko is back and might take a few starts to really find his game, I know Quinn Hughes is now week to week, I know they had an epic collapse against the Kraken, and I know they’re still holding a wild-card spot through all of it. But are they good? Absolutely no clue.
On to the power rankings, which in theory shouldn’t change much after a week with three days off …
Road to the Cup
The five teams with the best chances of winning the Stanley Cup.
If you missed it, Chris and Pierre played hot stove matchmakers on names like Brock Nelson, John Gibson, Rasmus Ristolainen and Taylor Hall. Check it out: part one and part two.
5. Edmonton Oilers (21-12-3, +13 true goals differential*) — Yeah, I don’t know. For what it’s worth, most of the Vegas books still have them listed as Cup favorites, which suggests I’m actually being too pessimistic here. But then you watch them lose to the Ducks, even coming off a tough OT battle with the Kings, and you wonder. I’m sticking with them, but I can think of three or four fan bases who could make a good case that they should be here instead.
4. Florida Panthers (22-13-2, +8) — Since (spoiler alert) the Habs aren’t in the bottom five this week, let’s use this space to mention Jakub Dobeš, who made his NHL debut on Saturday with a 33-save shutout against the Panthers.
Dobes is only the 19th goalie to get a shutout in his NHL debut in the modern area, I believe.
Fucale, Werner and Sparks were most recent three and only ones in last decade.
— James Mirtle (@mirtle) December 28, 2024
That’s two straight games in which Florida hasn’t scored, with a shutout loss on either side of the holiday break. The good news is they get the Rangers tonight, so that should be the end of that mini-slump.
3. Washington Capitals (24-10-2, +37) — Alexander Ovechkin is back, and he has two goals in two games as he resumes his chase of Wayne Gretzky’s record.
Feels like you may want to cover that player in that spot, but I’m not really an X’s and O’s guy.
2. Winnipeg Jets (26-10-1, +46) — It was a weird week in the Central, where the Wild are winning again, the Avalanche are locking into a goalie extension that not everyone loves and the Stars have been exposed as filthy cheaters. But it’s business as usual in Winnipeg, which is to say winning. The Jets are very close to “definite Cup favorite” status, although Murat has two questions first.
1. Vegas Golden Knights (25-8-3, +30) — They just keep rolling, coming back from the break to take care of business against the Sharks and Flames and run their win streak to six. They’re four games into an 11-game stretch against teams outside of a playoff spot today, so the chance is there to rack up big points and pull away in the Pacific.
*Goals differential without counting shootout decisions like the NHL does for some reason.
Not ranked: New Jersey Devils — So how can a team be in first place in its conference and the top three overall without earning a spot in our top five?
That’s an easy one, and Devils fans already know the answer: The team is only in first place in total points, and since it has played more games than anyone else, its points percentage isn’t quite as impressive. That said, the Devils are playing at a 107-point pace, which is better than anyone else in the East besides Washington. And if you’re one of the many who still don’t quite buy the Caps as a truly elite team, well, doesn’t that mean the Devils are at least the best bet in the Metro?
Maybe. There’s a case. It’s not an airtight one, as you can see by how this week’s rankings played out, but I’m open to it. After all, this is a team everyone was ready to anoint as Cup favorites a year ago, before a season where everything went wrong. With a star goaltender added in the offseason and a fresh voice from a new coach, it wasn’t hard to see this coming. Most of us did.
The Devils had a chance to make a strong statement coming out of the break with a weekend home-and-home against the Hurricanes. The results were mixed, with each team winning on home ice without looking especially dominant (although Carolina outshot New Jersey by a total of 72-46). And that wraps up the season series, meaning we won’t get a rematch until April or May.
By the way, if the governor of your opponent’s state calls you dirty, is that good or bad? I feel like it’s probably good.
Saturday’s game in Carolina was the first of a six-game road trip that now heads out to California and Seattle before a stop at MSG to face the Rangers. In theory, that’s at least four very winnable games and a chance to pad that impressive point total. After that comes a slate of the Lightning, Panthers and Maple Leafs, which will be a good checkpoint to set up the second half.
Will any of it lead to the Devils reclaiming a top-five spot they last held in October? It sure feels that way, assuming they can bank those easy points out west. For now, consider them just outside.
The bottom five
The five teams that are headed toward dead last, and the best lottery odds for James Hagens, or maybe someone else.
Have you been enjoying the World Juniors? Not if you’re Canadian, but Scott and Corey have you covered.
5. Detroit Red Wings (14-18-4, -25) — Steve Yzerman finally did something, firing Derek Lalonde and hiring Todd McLellan. Will it be enough? Obviously not, as Max outlines in this excellent column, but at least it’s a start, and it’s an acknowledgment that the first half has been nowhere good enough. That’s progress, in a sense.
That said, this was clearly not the move Yzerman wanted to make. Instead, he really had no choice, with a team that was supposed to build on last year instead falling further and further out of the playoff race. You could see the frustration building in the aftermath.
“If you have a better way, you’re free to share it with me, okay?” 👀
Steve Yzerman gets a bit passionate while discussing the #RedWings rebuild, how long it’s taking, & what he can do to expedite it. #LGRW pic.twitter.com/NbfZwwNW7r
— Winged Wheel Podcast (@WingedWheelPod) December 27, 2024
Not surprisingly, McLellan couldn’t come in and fix everything right away; that will be a process, and his debut on Friday showcased a lot of the same mistakes that have marked the season so far. (For example, I’m not sure how something like this happens.) But a tough first practice led to last night’s impressive win over the Capitals, so maybe this journey of a thousand miles has just taken its first step.
Of course, now that Yzerman has played the coach card, he’ll feel even more heat to fix his roster. We’ve long said he may be the only GM in the league who couldn’t be fired, and that’s probably still true, but it doesn’t mean fans won’t expect some sort of creativity. As the Wings become the ninth different team to enter our bottom five this week, it’s clear that patience has officially run out in Detroit.
4. Nashville Predators (11-18-7, -26) — Here’s some rare good news for the Predators: It looks like they’ve got yet another legit blue-line stud on the way.
3. San Jose Sharks (11-22-6, -33) — They’ve lost seven in a row, all but one in regulation, and I’m starting to think I may have jumped the gun on the whole “The Sharks are back, baby” thing.
2. Buffalo Sabres (14-19-4, -10) — We’ve officially got ourselves a winning streak, so maybe the answer was in the room all along. They even chased another team’s goalie and … still won? Unheard of? What team would actually lose to the Sabres like that?
1. Chicago Blackhawks (12-23-2, -30) — Oh, right. Fine, the Hawks can have their top spot back. Mark had an interesting piece on the Hawks and Sabres, the 2019 draft and the fraught nature of NHL rebuilds.
(And oh yeah, the Winter Classic is tomorrow. It’s Hawks and Blues, again. At Wrigley Field, again. Feel the excitement.)
Not ranked: New York Islanders — Last week, we had a bit of fun with the state of New York. We asked which of the state’s teams was suffering through the most miserable season, the historically awful Sabres or the unstoppably collapsing Rangers.
And Islanders fans rose up to say: Hey, we should be in this piece too.
And … yeah, maybe they should have been. I don’t think they would have been competitive and probably would have only “won” a single category (the hope for the future). But while things might not be as miserable for Islanders fans right now the way they are for the Rangers or the Sabres, they’re certainly not good.
So let’s talk about it, starting with what happened one week ago tonight. That was the game that saw those same Sabres, losers of 13 straight games, skate onto the Islanders’ home ice and absolutely light them up. The final was 7-1, and if you wanted to call it the most embarrassing outcome of the year leaguewide, I’m not sure you’d be wrong.
Not to be outdone by the #NYR earlier, the #Isles are getting smoked at home by a team on a 13-game winless streak.
The best holiday gift from the two NY hockey teams: 3 days without a game.
This shit is bleak.
— Arthur Staple (@StapeAthletic) December 24, 2024
But that’s one game. The bigger picture still has the Islanders in the playoff hunt, although even that’s looking dicey these days. They’re five points out this morning, with five teams to pass. And even those dire numbers flatter the Islanders a bit since they’re being propped up by a conference-leading seven loser points. In terms of just winning games, the Islanders are even with teams like the Sabres, Ducks and Red Wings.
They did get one of those 14 wins over the weekend, splitting a home-and-home with the Penguins to keep themselves five points back of a wild-card spot. There’s a lot of hockey left to play and plenty of time to turn the season around, or at least get back into a realistic playoff hunt. It was only a few weeks ago that the Islanders looked like they’d keep grinding toward a spot. But without any real new-coach bounce from Patrick Roy’s first full season in sight and the $11 million goaltending duo of Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov both posting sub-.900 years that can’t bail out a struggling offense, it’s fair to wonder what comes next if the season ends poorly.
That question starts at the top with Lou Lamoriello, and it gets awkward from there. Arthur took a deep dive into the question a few days ago, and it’s a grim read. Lamoriello has basically structured his front office so that the only real option to replace him is his son, Chris, so any sort of midseason change seems far-fetched, and even an offseason change is no sure thing. (And yes, for you Team Chaos fans out there, Arthur does mention the possibility of Roy taking over.)
The prospect pipeline isn’t great and the cap situation is stuffed with long-term deals to mediocre players. It’s getting hard to envision a turnaround that doesn’t involve the sort of full-fledged rebuild that Lou certainly isn’t going to pull the trigger on. Maybe that means the only way out is through, and the goal should be to just get into the playoffs and hope Sorokin can rediscover enough of his old game to be a tough out.
It’s not much of a plan, but it might be the best they’ve got. Hey, at least they’re not the Sabres or Rangers, right?
(Photo of the Red Wings: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)
