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To be fair, I did tell you to watch Padres-Yankees.
Plus: We learn what’s been wrong with William Contreras in Milwaukee, and Mookie Betts is working on bat speed (while the Dodgers training staff is just working on getting some pitchers healthy). I’m Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal. Welcome to The Windup!
World Series Preview?: Padres/Yankees did not disappoint
Actually, let me start over. Assuming you are not a Padres fan, Padres-Yankees did not disappoint. If you are a Padres fan, you are exempt from reading any furth— OK, they already scrolled to the next section. That’s fine, I understand.
For the rest of us … wow.
- On Monday, San Diego trailed 3-0 going into the eighth inning, then Devin Williams’ rough season continued. He loaded the bases, then Luke Weaver let those three Padres score — followed by one more when Xander Bogaerts singled home Manny Machado. 4-3 Padres.
- Tuesday, the script flipped: The Padres had leads of 2-0 and 3-2 before their previously invincible bullpen coughed up 10 runs in the seventh inning. 12-3 Yankees.
- Then came the grand finale last night. Dylan Cease took a no-hitter into the seventh inning before Cody Bellinger’s homer tied the score at 1-1. Both teams scored two runs in the eighth inning, and in the 10th, Williams *sigh* loaded the bases again. This time, he cleaned up his own mess, striking out Bogaerts to escape the inning. In the bottom half, J.C. Escarra walked it off with sac fly to score Jasson Domínguez. 4-3 Yankees.
I feel pretty good about my recommendation earlier this week. And it’s not impossible we’ll see a rematch in October. According to Baseball Reference, the 21-16 Yankees currently have a 19.7 percent chance of reaching the World Series, and the 23-13 Padres are at 19 percent.
The only two teams with higher odds right now? The 23-13 Tigers (31.9 percent) and 22-16 Cubs (24 percent).
Yeah, I know — I thought I was going to say Dodgers (17.6 percent), too. Speaking of which …
Peter Joneleit / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Ken’s Notebook: Betts focused on improving one aspect of his game
From my latest story, expanding on something I discussed recently in The Windup:
Talking to Mookie Betts, I almost wanted to pull an Allen Iverson.
“Bat speed? You’re worried about bat speed?”
An eight-time All-Star, seven-time Silver Slugger and three-time World Series champion is about the last player you would expect to fret, especially when he is still an elite performer. In April, The Athletic grouped Betts with five others in Tier 1 on its list of the top 100 position players in baseball. ESPN ranked Betts third among all players, MLB Network fifth.
Still, Betts worries about everything, freely acknowledging he puts too much pressure on himself. And, to a degree, his concern with bat speed is warranted. It is one of the rare weaknesses in his game.
Betts, in an interview Friday, attributed a recent 13-game stretch in which he batted .176 to bad habits he created returning from an illness in March that caused him to lose 20 pounds — habits he formed trying to regain his bat speed.
“I have a baseline of numbers as far as bat speed that I try and hit throughout the day to make sure I’m moving fast enough and ready for a game. I could not get the bat to those numbers,” Betts said.
“My bat speed, even fully healthy, is already below average. Now you take off 20 pounds and it’s even worse. I’m like, ‘Man, I’ve got to do whatever it takes to get the barrel going.’”
A player’s bat speed tends to decline with age, and Betts turns 33 on Oct. 7. Still, the Dodgers are not overly concerned. Betts emerged from his slump to bat .324 with a .817 OPS in his last 10 games. And his bat speed does not define him as a hitter.
Case in point: Betts is at the top of the leaderboard in another bat-tracking metric Statcast introduced this season, squared-up rate. His success in that area stems from the efficiency of his bat path, his ability to repeatedly connect with the sweet spot and achieve close to his maximum attainable exit velocity.
Well before Statcast made bat-tracking data available, teams developed metrics to assess players’ swings. Betts was among a group of Dodgers hitters who visited Driveline Baseball just outside of Seattle during the 2022-23 offseason. After the visit, he began using a metal bat with redistributed weight in batting practice, trying to build bat speed.
His work seemed to bear fruit. Betts’ .987 OPS in 2023 was the second-highest of his career, behind only his 1.078 mark with the Boston Red Sox in 2018, when he won American League MVP.
Yet, even in that resurgent ’23 season, Betts’ average bat speed was below the norm. Statcast measured it at 71.3 mph, in the 38th percentile of all players. He has declined since, dropping in 2024 to 69 mph (13th percentile) and — through Tuesday — 67.4 mph (sixth percentile) this season.
More here.
Worries: Death Star losing components at alarming rate
Yesterday, we started to get into Eno Sarris’ article on 10 early-season numbers that are actually worth being concerned about, but we got derailed when Ryan Pressly made some bad history, fulfilling one of Eno’s prophecies.
Let’s make it two. Here’s Eno:
Lewie Pollis looked at the numbers and found that managers are going to their bullpen too soon, and it’s taxing the relievers. Los Angeles has had a top-three bullpen so far, but will it regress over the course of the season — and most importantly, what will it look like in October?
Yesterday, reliever Evan Phillips hit the IL with “right forearm discomfort,” which is a dreaded phrase in clubhouses around the league. Fortunately, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told Fabian Ardaya he didn’t expect Phillips to need an MRI.
Bullet hopefully dodged (pun noted, unintentional) for now. But the Dodgers are asking their bullpen for more innings than any other team. It’s not just a lack of efficacy from starters, it’s also that a lot of them are, or have been, injured (13 pitchers, in total, are on the injured list).
Blake Snell and Clayton Kershaw should be back soon, which should help. In the meantime, L.A. could use a few seven- or eight-inning starts. The Dodgers have built a Death Star of a roster. The thermal exhaust port appears to be made of elbows, shoulders, knees and toes.
Ouch: William Contreras’ struggles, explained
Exactly one year ago, Brewers catcher William Contreras was hitting .329/.406/.510 (.917 OPS), en route to starting the All-Star Game and finishing fifth in NL MVP voting. This year, he’s at .242/.358/.331 (.689) — the sort of dropoff that starts to raise eyebrows. What exactly is going on with him?
MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy has solved the riddle: Contreras has a fracture on the middle finger of his catching hand. McCalvy reports that it’s an “old fracture that has bothered him for some time,” and that the 27-year-old Contreras plans to continue playing through it (though he was out of the lineup last night in the series finale against the Rays)
For all the attrition the Brewers roster has undergone in recent offseasons and trade deadlines, they have at least been a bit lucky with position-player injuries this year, with just Garrett Mitchell and Blake Perkins currently on the IL. But Contreras isn’t the only one struggling at the plate this year. SS Joey Ortiz — stepping up after the departure of Willy Adames — is below the Mendoza line, and Christian Yelich is barely above it.
And yet … the Brewers entered play last night ranked in the top 10 in runs scored. Part of the reason? They’re taking a lot of extra bases. They’ve stolen more bases (46) than any team not called the Cubs (48).
Still, when a new star or two leaves every winter, you need the ones who remain to shine a little brighter. Here’s hoping Contreras’ finger can get healthy soon.
Handshakes and High Fives
Keith Law’s Mock Draft 1.0 is here. He has Ethan Holliday going No. 1 to the Nats … for now.
After Ryan Pressly’s historically bad outing Tuesday night, Sahadev Sharma spoke to Cubs pitching coach Tommy Hottovy about what Pressly is working to correct.
Not a great day for the Reds, who put Noelvi Marte on the IL (oblique strain), then saw Hunter Greene leave his start after just three innings (groin strain). They’re the third and fourth players to be added to the Reds IL in the last week (and OF Jake Fraley underwent an MRI for his calf yesterday, so … it might be five soon).
On the pods: The Mariners have a top-five offense in 2025. Will it last? Eno, DVR and Jed discuss it on the latest episode of “Rates & Barrels.”
Don’t look now, but the Cardinals have won five games in a row and are back to a .500 record. Katie Woo tells us what’s going so right in St. Louis.
Most-clicked in our last newsletter: Eno Sarris on 10 early-season numbers that could be cause for alarm. Something tells me we might get a repeat champ tomorrow.
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(Top photo: Brad Penner / Imagn Images)