Trending 📉 📈 so far this offseason, plus notable cut candidates

Inside: Early 2025 trends, the uncertain future of Matthew Stafford and cut candidates, plus the latest on Justin Tucker, Tyreek Hill and the parade shooting in Philly.

After the year’s first Sunday without football, I realized there are another 199 days until the 2025 season kicks off.

In the meantime, I’m here for the combine, free agency, the draft, trades and all that other offseason goodness.

This article is from Scoop City, The Athletic’s daily NFL newsletter. Sign up here to receive it directly in your inbox.

Early offseason risers and fallers

Can a team “win” an offseason? And if they do, does it mean anything? Asking for Bears fans, as Chicago again landed the offseason’s biggest fish by hiring head coach Ben Johnson (though NFL insiders disagreed).

Joining his coaching staff are respected minds like former Saints head coach Dennis Allen (defensive coordinator) and former Commanders assistant head coach Eric Bieniemy (running backs coach).

Early still, but the Bears seem poised for another strong offseason (for whatever that’s worth, as noted), so long as they add strength on the lines.

Fortunately, they hold three of the first 41 picks in a draft defined by strength in the trenches, plus their $63 million in cap space is the league’s sixth-most (all salary numbers per Over the Cap). With only one player likely to get an extension (CB Kyler Gordon), and the room that would be freed up by letting WR Keenan Allen and OG Teven Jenkins walk, there’s a big opportunity for GM Ryan Poles.

Chicago gets a 📈, for now. Others:

📈 The Broncos. How the tables turn. Last February, Denver was $24 million over the projected cap before shedding Russell Wilson and incurring the largest dead-cap hit in NFL history, and held only one draft pick among 2024’s first 75. A complete tear-down seemed feasible.

Instead, the Broncos found franchise quarterback Bo Nix at No. 12, went 10-7 and made the playoffs for the first time in nine seasons. Since then, they’ve added one of the league’s best special teams coaches (former Saints interim head coach Darren Rizzi), and they have $35 million in cap space and seven draft picks to find the versatile Joker that Sean Payton is searching for (think Alvin Kamara or Taysom Hill).

The big question is Courtland Sutton, their star receiver and captain, who likely wants a new contract. Beat reporter Nick Kosmider suggests the 29-year-old Sutton could get Calvin Ridley-like money (four years, $92 million).

📉 Kirk Cousins. After one year, the quarterback whom the Falcons guaranteed $100 million might be looking for a new home. Benched for Michael Penix Jr. in Week 15, Cousins’ play had trailed off considerably from the season’s first half. So how is he still trending down? After the season, Cousins blamed that decline on an unreported shoulder injury. With Penix Jr. as the 2025 starter, expect the Falcons to field trade offers, which will need to be acceptable for Cousins, who has a no-trade clause.

📈 Bryce Young, whose stock was increased by the Super Bowl — even though he was nowhere near playing in it. After a disastrous start to 2024, his resurgent Panthers nearly upset both eventual Super Bowl teams, losing 30-27 to the Chiefs and falling one dropped pass shy of beating the Eagles:

From Joe Person’s recent story on the momentum following their game in Germany: “The team’s gonna say the right things. But you know behind closed doors (Panthers coach) Dave Canales and his group are like, ‘Guys, it’s working,’” said CBS analyst Charles Davis, who called that Panthers-Chiefs game.

While Chicago holds the Panthers’ second-round pick, they still have one selection in each of the first three rounds, plus five total in the next two rounds. See how Joe uses them in his latest Carolina mock.

📉 Canton’s process. New rules were meant to “help ensure that membership in the Hall of Fame remains elite.” Technically, that was a success, as the previous decade’s average of nearly eight inductees per year dropped to just four for 2025. But as Mike Sando — one of the 49 selectors — explains, the rules still failed. “The committee did not sufficiently prioritize voting for the most elite candidates,” evidenced by this class’ absence of Luke Kuechly.

📈 Praise for the Jets new regime. They sit 26th in our early 2025 Power Rankings, but Aaron Glenn’s new regime seems willing to shed while maintaining a talented young core. They will save $45.9 million by cutting Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers and Allen Lazard, and have six picks in the first five rounds, with the No. 7 pick potentially being used for an elite corner like Michigan’s Will Johnson to replace D.J. Reed.

📉 The Steelers limped into the playoffs after their regular season winning percentage dropped by 30 percent in the second-half of 2024, the NFL’s second-worst tumble. Their quarterback dilemma remains ongoing, they’ll need a new running back (with Najee Harris likely leaving in free agency) and, as Mike DeFabo has written, it might be time for more significant changes.

📈 Cap saving moves. Those Steelers saved $13.4 million by releasing edge Preston Smith and now have the eighth-most cap space ($53 million). Seattle restructured DT Leonard Williams’ contract to save $14.1 million while the Dolphins moved on from RB Raheem Mostert, CB Kendall Fuller and TE Durham Smythe, saving $7.9 million in 2025.

Expect to see more moves from the following teams, all of whom are over the projected cap:

• Texans: Need to shed $100K in cap space
• Chiefs: -$900K
• Cowboys: -$2.8 million
• Dolphins: -$5.4 million
• Falcons: -$11.1 million
• Seahawks: -$13.4 million
• Bills: -$14.1 million
• Browns: -$30.1 million 😶
• Saints: -$54.1 million 🤢

Notably absent: The Rams, who could have the most impactful offseason of any team. Let’s talk about that.

Assessing the Rams situation

When WR Cooper Kupp plays his first game in 2025, it almost certainly will be on another roster. Will we see the same for Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles’ 37-year-old franchise quarterback?

According to Jourdan Rodrigue’s early-morning report, Stafford’s future remains uncertain as “not much progressed after their opening conversations.” The two paths:

Stafford stays:The Rams return a playoff-worthy roster that nearly beat the Eagles, albeit one that requires a significant financial commitment to keep their star quarterback happy. This ties up capital that could be used on future extensions for players like Puka Nacua.

Stafford goes:This seems to align with the Rams’ new vision of a young roster built through exceptional drafting. But no Stafford deal happens unless L.A. gets a sufficient return, which should start with at least one first-round pick. Stetson Bennett is considered a QB2, so they’d likely bring in an external solution or retain free-agent backup Jimmy Garoppolo, a McVay favorite.

Jourdan’s perspective: “There’s a financial point and/or term limit the Rams are unlikely to cross, even if Stafford undoubtedly gives them their best chance to make a run in 2025.”

With Dak Prescott’s $60 million-per-year deal resetting the QB market last offseason, Stafford has every right to demand a pay bump on his $40 million average, which ranks 15th among quarterbacks.

Either way, there’s urgency for the Rams to find their long-term solution at QB. In the full article, Jourdan explains everything you should know about what looks to be this offseason’s most impactful situation.

Free Agency: Time to move on?

When compared to 2024’s class, the quarterbacks and receivers available in free agency and this draft are uninspiring. But those groups would become more interesting with Kupp, Rodgers and Adams in the mix, potentially joined by other notable cut candidates.

Who could join them, from The Athletic’s list of cut candidates from every team:

QB: Gardner Minshew. I appreciate how bluntly Tashan Reed puts it: “Minshew was terrible in 10 appearances last season and won’t be in the Raiders’ plans at quarterback. If they cut him with a post-June 1 designation, they’ll free up $6 million in cap space.”

QB: Derek Carr. Given the Saints’ cap situation and his contract, this gets complicated, but new coach Kellen Moore was noncommittal about his quarterback’s future. Rising sophomore Spencer Rattler waits in the wings, having played most of 2024 without his top receivers.

WR: Christian Kirk. This would add $10.4 million to Jacksonville’s cap room, while he could land on a receiver-needy team like the Steelers. But unless the new regime has an eye on a splash free agent, I’d think they’ll keep one of Trevor Lawrence’s best friends around. 

WR: Treylon Burks. It’s felt like a matter of time before Tennessee’s one-time A.J. Brown replacement is cast aside. Still just 24, the former No. 18 pick has played 27 games in three seasons and had just 34 receiving yards last season. He’ll save them $4.6 million if cut.

There’s so much more in that full list, including ideas like the Chargers moving on from Joey Bosa, Washington cutting their $72 million defensive tackle and the Patriots moving on from arguably their best receiver. 👀

Around the NFL

Seven more women came forward yesterday, meaning a total of 16 massage therapists have alleged improper sexual conduct by the Ravens kicker, according to reports from the Baltimore Banner.

Tucker has not been charged in either criminal or civil court, and the Ravens are yet to publicly address the situation, though NFL spokesperson Brian McCarthy said via email that “The matter remains under review of the personal conduct policy.”

On January 30, Tucker called the allegations “unequivocally false.” Jeff Zrebiec explains what might come next.

Two people were shot during the Eagles’ Super Bowl parade on Friday, according to the local police department. Both victims were female, and both are now in stable condition. Authorities are investigating, but no arrests have been made.

Myles Garrett’s future could impact the Browns’ plans at quarterback, notes beat reporter Zac Jackson, since “all indications are that they’re going to continue to hold Garrett and try to present him with a monstrous new contract to help him change his mind.”

Tyreek Hill agreed to race Olympic gold medalist Noah Lyles, though the details are still being worked out. Earlier this month, Lyles won his fourth straight 60-meter final and celebrated by holding a sign that read, “Tyreek could never.”

In 2013, lineman Richie Incognito was suspended by the Dolphins after a league investigation found he bullied and harassed teammate Jonathan Martin with racial and homophobic remarks. Late last week, ESPN’s Anthony Olivieri published a story in which Martin says, “I never believed for a second I was being bullied.”

Friday’s most-clicked: The biggest offseason needs for all 32 NFL teams.

📫 Enjoyed this read? Sign up here to receive The Athletic’s free daily NFL newsletter in your inbox. 

Also, check out The Athletic’s other newsletters.

(Photo: Tyler Schank, Michael Reaves / Getty Images)