The Greek philosopher Heraclitus said way, way back in the day, “The only constant in life is change.” Since ball is life, and fantasy is LIFE, that phrase truly hits the spot because the fantasy hoops landscape is constantly morphing and evolving for a plethora of reasons. In this piece, I will highlight the tremors that rocked our fantasy world over the past week and shed some light to unearth meaning.
Before I delve into last week’s happenings, I want to touch on the Memphis Grizzlies.
Last season, Memphis was dead last in points per game at 105.8 and had the worst offensive rating in the league. Yes, having Ja Morant for only nine games was a big part of it, but there were structural issues to address, and boy, did the architect design a masterpiece.
Through 42 games this season, Memphis is first in points per game, pace and transition frequency. Last season, they were 17th in pace and 20th in transition frequency.
Memphis used the pick-and-roll 15% of the time (19th). This season, that number is down to 8.2%, the lowest in the NBA. The Denver Nuggets are 29th at 12%. Since 2015, only one other team has had a number below 10% — the 2019 Houston Rockets.
Memphis went from 10th in offensive rebounding to third this season.
Finally, no player is averaging 30 minutes per game. Memphis is the only team that can stake that claim this season. Last season, Memphis had four players average at least 30 minutes per game.
The Athletic’s Fred Katz broke down the Grizzlies offense a week and a half ago, while The Ringer’s Zach Kram also did an excellent deep dive.
Neither mentioned the architect who delivered this Amos Rex: Tuomas Iisalo.
Iisalo is from Finland and began coaching in 2014 for Tapiolan Honka and the Finland U20 team. He then turned Crailsheim Merlins into a contender with limited resources and made Telekom Baskets Bonn a powerhouse, earning Coach of the Year honors. Last season, Iisalo was named EuroCup Coach of the Year after leading Paris Basketball to the 2024 EuroCup Finals and LNB Pro A Coach of the Year.
His formula? Play fast on offense — off-ball movement with plenty of cutting. Wear down opponents with waves of players going full out during their shifts — crashing the glass, getting out in transition.
I recommend watching Iisalo breakdown videos on YouTube — really good stuff.
Anyway, I pride myself on keeping up with the news year-round, but I missed on Iisalo’s potential impact. What he’s done has been impactful for fantasy. For example, Santi Aldama is playing 0.8 fewer minutes per game but is launching 1.0 more shots per game, grabbing 1.3 more rebounds per game and shooting 50% from the field and 39% from downtown. Aldama converted 43% from the field last season and 34% from downtown.
But back to our regularly scheduled program.
Staying in Memphis, the backup point guard has been extremely fantasy-relevant due to Morant missing games. Scotty Pippen Jr. started 16 of the 17 games Morant missed this season. The one he didn’t was the fourth game of the season, and Pippen played 31 minutes off the bench.
Last Friday, though, Taylor Jenkins made a significant change, inserting Luke Kennard into the starting lineup with Desmond Bane garnering more offensive responsibilities. Pippen played only 16 minutes off the bench. Bane had a 25.7% usage rate and dished out a season-high 14 dimes while scoring 22 points.
Kennard played 26 minutes and contributed 17 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 treys. Kennard is a career-44% shooter from downtown, has good size at 6-foot-6, 206 pounds and possesses decent playmaking chops.
Two games ago, with both Bane and Morant in the lineup, Kennard received 30 minutes off the bench, finishing with 15 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists and 5 treys. Injuries have been a concern for Kennard in the past, but as long as Kennard is healthy and getting the playing time, he’s an intriguing fantasy asset. He’s currently 8% rostered in Yahoo leagues.
More players to target
Kel’el Ware powers up: In my last piece two weeks ago, I wrote, “It wouldn’t surprise me if he (Kel’el Ware) and Bam start playing together sooner rather than later.” Through 25 games, Ware had been a direct backup to Bam Adebayo. On Sunday, though, life came at us fast. The game started off status quo, with Ware subbing in for Adebayo after eight minutes.
Ware played the entire second quarter, though, with Adebayo returning to action for the final eight minutes of the half, providing the first overlap in playing time this season for the two Heat big men. Coming out of halftime, Ware and Adebayo started and played together for six minutes.
Eric Spoelstra and the Heat organization made Ware prove himself, and it sounds like he’s been doing all the right things behind the scenes.
According to USA Today, Spoelstra said, “What he has done with his play and ability to impact the game has earned more, and that is what you’re seeing. That’s what you want all players to do: Make us watch you, make us have to play you, make us have to think about not playing you and make us continue to figure out things and keep you on the court and that’s what he is doing right now.”
If Ware gets more power forward minutes, Nikola Jovic’s time on the court will be impacted.
Ware has a fantasy-friendly game due to his ability to be a lob threat, grab rebounds, hit some treys, get his Mutombo on, and convert free throws at a respectable rate. He’s still only rostered in 19% of Yahoo leagues.
Trade deadline appetizer: We are a little under three weeks from the NBA trade deadline, and the stove popped some kernels last week with the trade of Nick Richards to the Phoenix Suns.
Richards did not start in his Phoenix debut, but he received 30 minutes off the bench and contributed 21 points, 11 rebounds, an assist and a steal. Mason Plumlee started but only played 13 minutes, while Oso Ighodaro received five minutes.
Jusuf Nurkic has missed the past six games due to illness and getting Budenholzer’d. If I were a Richards manager, I would have zero worries about Nurkic. Richards is still only rostered on 44% of Yahoo teams. Shrug.
The flip side of this trade is the confidence the Charlotte Hornets have in Mark Williams and Moussa Diabate. It took some time to ramp up, but Williams has now averaged 33 minutes in the past three games, with dominant results: 21 points, 15 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.3 steals, and 2.0 blocks.
Diabate played well early in the season, filling in for Williams and Richards. He hustled, set screens and was a menace on the glass. In the past two games, he’s averaged 16.5 minutes backing up Williams.
Not all is sunshine and roses in Charlotte, as we lost Brandon Miller for what is likely the rest of the season due to a tear in his wrist. Miller had leveled up in his sophomore campaign, averaging 21 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.7 blocks and 3.9 treys.
Nick Smith Jr. got the start in the last game for Miller and played 26 minutes, finishing with 15 points, 5 rebounds, an assist and a steal. Smith is in his second year and can get buckets, but he’s still wiry thin. He’s very quick and is very jittery with the handle, but I often worry that his arms will break like a thin branch caught in a hurricane.
If Tre Mann ever returns from injury, I think he will get a ton of run, while Seth Curry will always be in the mix.
With Miller off the court this season, Miles Bridges’s usage has increased by 3.14% to 28.99%. LaMelo Ball’s usage has increased by 1.95% to 39.81%.
Donte’s inferno levels: It’s been quite the season for Donte DiVincenzo. He had difficulty adjusting to a new team and city, shooting 35% from the field and 31% from downtown over the first 25 games. Then it looked like he started getting more comfortable in mid-December, converting 47% from the field and 45% from downtown over nine games. With Mike Conley playing mediocre ball, DiVincenzo was thrust into the starting lineup and flourished with 17.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 1.5 steals and 4.0 treys in six games.
Unfortunately, he suffered a toe injury and missed the past two games. On Monday, it was announced that DiVincenzo is out indefinitely. An MRI revealed a Grade 3 sprain of his left big toe. Minnesota is seeking a second opinion.
Conley has started the last two games but only received 25 and 23 minutes. He dished out a total of five dimes. Rob Dillingham played 14 and 18 minutes off the bench, and his role could increase due to the juice that he could provide offensively. Dillingham has converted 9-of-16 from the field and 3-of-6 from downtown. That said, Conley will still probably play around 20 minutes, even if Dillingham garners a more significant role.
Another residual effect of losing DiVincenzo is that Anthony Edwards has to take on more defensive responsibilities, as DiVincenzo has good size and could match up with opposing number ones.
Scoot shootin’ boogie: Scoot Henderson has been marvelous over the past four games. He’s started three and averaged 25.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, 7.8 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.8 blocks and 4.0 treys in 35.2 minutes per game. He’s shooting 56% from the field and 53% from downtown. He’s obviously going to regress in the shooting efficiency, especially from downtown, but the counting stats could continue being plentiful.
At the end of his rookie season, Henderson had a 14-game stretch in which he averaged 18.9 points, 3.6 rebounds, 7.9 assists, 1.4 steals and 2.3 treys. He shot only 40% from the field but 39% from downtown. He came into the NBA with questions about his touch from deep and finishing ability at the rim. He’s shown improvements but is still inconsistent.
Let’s not forget that Henderson is still only 20 years old, in his second NBA season and was selected third overall in the NBA draft. Portland is a bad basketball team with a 14-28 record, so Henderson will likely get a ton of run down the stretch. Whether he truly takes that leap is in question, but ride the wave right now and reassess when new information is presented. Henderson is still only 47% rostered in Yahoo leagues.
Castle moves: Stephon Castle has been in the Spurs rotation from Day 1. After starting 17 games in November and early December, he was placed in a reserve role as the Spurs got healthy, neutering his fantasy prospects. Over the past five games, though, Castle has averaged 17.0 points, 3.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 0.6 steals and 1.0 treys in 29.1 minutes.
The increased playing time coincided with Jeremy Sochan’s back injury. When Sochan returns, Castle will likely return to playing in the teens.
When the Spurs played Memphis, the Grizzles put Zach Edey on Castle. And why not? Castle is shooting 25% from downtown. The Spurs countered by using Castle as the pick-and-roll man with Chris Paul. Castle is deadly as the short-roll man due to his ability to pass to the open player and finish strong in the paint.
When the KAT’s away:Karl-Anthony Towns has missed five games this season, including two last week. He returned for Monday’s contest, but it was good to see how Tom Thibodeau adjusted his short rotation.
Jericho Sims started the past two games with Towns out, but he played an average of just 21 minutes, with a line of 4.0 points, 6.0 rebounds and 1.0 assists. Precious Achiuwa was the main beneficiary, averaging 33 minutes, 8.0 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.0 steals and 3.0 blocks.
In 527 minutes with Towns off the court, Jalen Brunson’s usage rate has increased from 4.24% to 34.91%.
Dunn and more Suns: Ryan Dunn has been starting since late December, but his minutes have fluctuated from 16 to 30 minutes. Over the past two games, he’s received 30 and 29 minutes, flourishing with 15.0 points, 9.5 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.5 blocks and 2.0 treys while shooting 52% from the field and 50% from downtown.
Known as a defensive savant, Dunn has been garnering the toughest assignments and making life difficult for the opposition. Unfortunately, the defensive stats haven’t been robust, as Dunn is a better real-life defender than a fantasy one. If he plays 30 minutes, he’ll get plenty of good looks playing alongside Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, and his work on the glass has been solid.
Staying in Phoenix, Tyus Jones was playing in the 19-to-28-minute range in January. Over the past two games, he received 31 minutes in both contests and dished out 10 dimes in each. Prior to that stretch, he had at least 10 assists in five of 38 games. Could be something, could be nothing. We shall see.
Center of attention: We fantasy nerds have been clamoring for more Onyeka Okongwu, but Clint Capela has been grinning from ear to ear as he’s soaked up the bulk of the center minutes in Atlanta. Since Okongwu entered the league in 2020, his minutes have increased, though currently he’s averaging 24.1, down from 25.5 last season.
On Monday, Okongwu received his first start of the season in favor of Capela. As of this writing, the minute distribution is unknown, but in the prior three games, Okongwu had minutes totals of 28, 27, and 32, averaging 18.3 points, 15.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.7 blocks and 1.0 treys. Atlanta won all three games, and I don’t know how Quin Snyder puts Okongwu back in the bottle.
Return of the Kings: Shoutout to Doug Christie for turning around the Sacramento Kings. For the season’s first two months, the Kings were 20th in defensive rating. Since Christie took over, they have been eighth. Sacramento is still playing with pace (fifth), but they are no longer an enticing fantasy option to attack.
Marshall Plan: Naji Marshall isn’t exciting. This Marshall Plan will not resuscitate a fantasy team, but there is some value. Marshall isn’t a low-usage 3-and-D player. Instead, the usage rate is 18.7% on the season and is often in the high teens. He’s scored at least 20 points five times and has a 10-assist game and a 10-rebound game in the past two contests, playing an average of 32 minutes.
Dallas has suffered many injuries, which has allowed Marshall to thrive. However, his versatility and ability to contribute a little something across the board should provide a high playing-time floor. According to Cleaning the Glass, Marshall has played 19% at shooting guard, 62% at small forward, and 18% at power forward.
Tour de Franz: Franz Wagner has been out since early December, a span of 19 games. He should be back within the next week, as he’s been conditioning and doing on-court work. His return would send Tristan da Silva back to a reserve role. Temper fantasy expectations, though. Paolo Banchero was out when Wagner went nuts with a usage rate often in the high 30% range. When the two were on the court together to start the season, Wagner never had a usage rate over 30% in the five games.
(Photo of Ja Morant: Justin Ford / Getty Images)
