This Week in Mets: Jeff McNeil's bat speed, Juan Soto's ground-ball rate, other early trends

“You begin to understand that the reward of merit is not life’s business.”
— “The Sense of an Ending,” Julian Barnes

After another series win over the weekend, the New York Mets have played 41 games, or just over a quarter of the season. This is when you can start to maybe think about coming close to a conclusion about a team’s strengths and weaknesses.

For now, though, let’s look under the hood at a few early trends for the Mets, what they say about current developments and what they could mean.

McNeil’s bat speed is up

Bat speed is one of the quickest stats to give us a read on swing changes: It can take as few as five swings to reveal useful data. Jeff McNeil went into spring training with an eye on improving his bat speed above the month-over-month improvement he showed in 2024 in the new metric. The early returns, even after a spring oblique injury, are promising.

McNeil averaged 68.8 mph on his competitive swings in 2024; so far this year, it’s 71.2 mph. That’s the gap between well below average and right near it across the sport. The main difference for McNeil has been eliminating many of his slowest swings and placing a larger chunk of his swings above league average (71.6 mph).

(Baseball Savant)

Though that added bat speed hasn’t translated into more consistent hard contact just yet, McNeil’s slugging and expected slugging numbers are up from last season.

Soto’s ground-ball rate is down

What stood out during Juan Soto’s lukewarm — it was never really cold — start was how often he was hitting the ball into the ground. At one point, his ground-ball rate for the season was above 55 percent, basically the level that was leading to Brett Baty’s struggles.

But over the last two-plus weeks, Soto’s ground-ball rate is below 40 percent, and he’s hitting the ball hard in the air more often. Those are the balls that become home runs and extra-base hits.

The Mets have gone from worst to (almost) first in limiting stolen bases

This time last year, the Mets had achieved an almost inconceivable statistical combination. They had allowed, by far, the most stolen bases in the majors. And they’d caught the fewest runners attempting to steal.

This weekend 365 days ago, the Mets allowed 10 stolen bases in a sweep to the Tampa Bay Rays. Through 36 games, they’d permitted 52 steals in 55 attempts. At the time, the Mets’ inability to do anything to corral the opposing running game felt like shorthand for all the ways they were flailing in 2024. They weren’t doing the big things right (yet), and they couldn’t even do the little things.

In 2025, the story is entirely different. Only one team has allowed fewer stolen bases this season than the Mets. And nobody has caught more runners attempting to steal. It’s the exact inverse of the situation last year.

When I wrote about this dynamic last May, I broke it down into its component parts. Let’s do that again.

Are the Mets just limiting stolen-base opportunities?

Using the most basic measure, no. The Mets have actually thrown more total pitches and a higher percentage of pitches than any team in baseball with a runner on first and second base open — the likeliest situation to steal.

Are they just playing teams that don’t steal much?

Again, no. Let’s bring back the same measure I used last season, comparing how often teams have stolen and been caught stealing against the Mets versus what they’ve done in all their other games.

In other words, if the Mets were an average team against opposing base runners, you’d expect them to have given up about 34 steals on 42 attempts. They’ve saved themselves 19 bases while picking up six extra outs.

Is this because Luis Torrens played more to start the season?

Certainly, having Torrens on the roster helps. The No. 1 difference from this point last season to now is simply the personnel. Most of those steals early last season were against Omar Narváez. The rate slowed when Francisco Alvarez returned and especially once Torrens was added in early June.

But the improvement for the Mets is across the board. Here’s how each catcher has done:

“It helps, especially when you have two guys who can shut down a running game and pitchers giving them chances to throw guys out,” manager Carlos Mendoza said. “It definitely puts it on (the opponents’) heads. We’re ready. We’re paying attention to the little details.”

The exposition

The Mets returned home to take two of three from the first-place Chicago Cubs. The Mets’ 26-15 mark is a game off the Los Angeles Dodgers’ pace for the best in baseball and 1 1/2 games clear of the Philadelphia Phillies in the National League East. The Mets own the best run differential (plus-67) in the National League.

The Pittsburgh Pirates fired their manager last week and responded with a series win over the Atlanta Braves to halt a seven-game slide. Still, Pittsburgh is 14-27 and buried in last place in the NL Central.

The New York Yankees took two of three in West Sacramento from the Athletics. Their 23-17 record is two games clear of the Boston Red Sox in the American League West. The Yankees, who play three games in Seattle before hosting the Mets this weekend, own the best run differential (plus-75) in baseball.

The pitching possibles

v. Pittsburgh

LHP David Peterson (2-2, 3.05 ERA) vs. RHP Paul Skenes (3-4, 2.77 ERA)
RHP Kodai Senga (4-2, 1.16) vs. RHP Mitch Keller (1-4, 4.40)
RHP Clay Holmes (5-1, 2.74) vs. LHP Bailey Falter (2-3, 4.36)

at New York (AL)

RHP Tylor Megill (3-3, 3.10) vs. LHP Carlos Rodón (4-3, 3.29)
RHP Griffin Canning (5-1, 2.36) vs. RHP Clarke Schmidt (0-1, 4.79)
LHP David Peterson vs. LHP Max Fried (6-0, 1.05)

Injury updates

Red = 60-day IL
Orange = 15-day IL
Blue = 10-day IL

• Jesse Winker officially hit the injured list last week with a Grade 2 oblique strain that will keep him out six to eight weeks.

• J. Minter has decided to undergo season-ending surgery on his lat. The recovery time is 10 to 12 months, so Minter is hoping to have as close to a normal spring training as possible next year.

• Danny Young has opted for Tommy John surgery. He’ll be out until next summer.

• Jose Siri is making quicker-than-expected progress from his fractured tibia. Though a rehab assignment isn’t on the schedule yet, Siri has started real baseball activities.

Minor-league schedule

Triple-A: Syracuse vs. Lehigh Valley (Philadelphia)
Double-A: Binghamton at Hartford (Colorado)
High-A: Brooklyn vs. Winston-Salem (Chicago, AL)
Low-A: St. Lucie at Daytona (Cincinnati)

Last week in Mets

• The future of the Mets offense is at Coney Island
• Why is Juan Soto spending so much time in the Mets’ bullpen?
• Takeaways on the Cubs series, including Brett Baty’s revival
• Prospect Jonah Tong had himself a night Saturday
• Mailbag on Luisangel Acuña’s role and other pitching prospects
• TWIM: The most encouraging aspects of the Mets’ start

A note on the epigraph

Hey, it’s a book I’ve actually read this year. The 2011 Booker prize winner, “The Sense of an Ending,” is a slim treatise on memory — the stories we tell ourselves about our maturations and how they might differ from those close to us. Its protagonist’s lack of awareness — both self- and general — is reminiscent of narrators in “The Remains of the Day” or “The Good Soldier,” though I liked both those books more. The revelation at the end, though surprising, didn’t strike me as especially meaningful. I think I liked the idea of the book more than the book itself.

Trivia time

The Mets’ only three-game sweep in the Bronx came in 2008, and it didn’t feel like one because the finale was postponed by rain for a month. The Mets’ three winning pitchers in that series were all starters and, coincidentally, the three starters for the less satisfying season-ending series that season against the Florida Marlins. Who were they?

I’ll reply to the correct answer in the comments.

(Photo of Jeff McNeil: Mark J. Rebilas / Imagn Images)