MLB teams have played between seven and 12 games heading into Monday’s action and already fans and pundits are reacting — and overreacting — to the early season results with takes on everything from player and team performances to injury ramifications to possible trades and even release candidates.
I’ve been flooded with questions from fans wanting my opinion on what I’ve seen so far, and they often ask if their views are an overreaction to the small sample.
Since I’ve always loved those segments on radio and TV, I’ve decided to do one in article form. Here are 10 statements on the early MLB results and my takes on whether they are on point or overreactions. Do you agree? Disagree? I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments section, or even better get your takes and overreactions on other topics.
1. The injury to Spencer Strider makes the Phillies the favorites in the NL East.
OVERREACTION
Strider has damage to the ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching arm, and although we’re waiting to learn more from the Braves, including the extent of the damage, it’s devastating news for the team I had considered the best in baseball and allows the Dodgers to catapult them in my early power rankings. But even with Strider out, I still believe the Braves are the best team in the National League East. They have a better overall offense and defense than the Phillies. The Braves’ rotation of Max Fried, Charlie Morton, Chris Sale, Reynaldo López and either AJ Smith-Shawver or Bryce Elder, two of the possible candidates to replace Strider in the rotation, is strong enough to win the division again, especially with their deep bullpen. (That said, Fried should be monitored as he’s struggled in his first two outings coming off an injury-shortened 2023 season.) Plus, Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos can always pick up the phone and trade for another starter if needed.
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2. The Astros’ run in the AL West is finally over.
OVERREACTION
The Astros have played just 10 games and some fans are already talking about their demise. Stop it. Houston, along with Baltimore and Texas, is one of the three best teams in the American League, and it will just be fine despite the slow start. The Astros have a deep starting rotation that’s only going to get healthier. Their core of Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez is as good as any in the sport. Yainer Diaz is developing into one of the best offensive catchers in the league. And when Josh Hader starts throwing his fastball again and ignoring the Astros’ analytics department, which wants him to throw secondary pitches, he’ll get back to being the best left-handed closer in baseball. The Astros (3-7) have won six straight full-season NL West titles (excluding the shortened 2020 campaign), and I expect them to win the division again this year.
The Astros, with Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman, have made it to seven consecutive ALCS. (Troy Taormina / USA Today)
3. The Guardians should have traded Shane Bieber this past offseason.
OVERREACTION
The Guardians listened to teams’ inquiries on Bieber, but the opposing clubs were concerned about his elbow and injury risk this season. So they never received a trade proposal that was worth pursuing and knew they couldn’t trade him with his elbow condition. With the Guardians and other teams obviously not publicly talking about Bieber’s injuries, fans don’t know what Cleveland could have done this past offseason, or in this case couldn’t have done.
GO DEEPER
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4. It’s only a matter of time before the Marlins start trading veterans.
ON POINT
The Marlins did almost nothing this offseason to improve their major-league roster and said goodbye to their best power bat, Jorge Soler, without even making an attempt to re-sign him after he slugged 36 homers last season. They’ve had unfortunate injuries in the rotation as their top two starters, Sandy Alcantara and Eury Pérez, needed Tommy John surgery and are out for the year, and starters Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett both began the season on the injured list with shoulder inflammation. The Marlins have started 1-9 and yes, it’s only a matter of time before they start trading, with lefty Jesús Luzardo the most likely player to be traded because every contending team — from the Orioles to the Yankees to the Astros to the Rangers to the Dodgers to the Reds — will be pursuing him at the deadline. The Marlins don’t have another player who could bring back four quality prospects to build for the future and they’ll be targeting hitters in return, which makes the Orioles and Dodgers their best possible trade partners.
5. Jackson Chourio of the Brewers will win the NL Rookie of the Year Award.
OVERREACTION
Chourio has had a strong start to the season, going 9-for-32 with two home runs, seven RBIs and a stolen base. However, his competition for the award isn’t limited to legitimate rookies, in my view, because he’s up against experienced players such as Dodgers starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Giants outfielder Jung Hoo Lee. Yamamoto, who signed a 10-year, $325 million contract with Los Angeles this offseason, pitched seven years in Nippon Professional Baseball and won three straight versions of the Japanese Cy Young Award and three straight Pacific League MVPs. Lee, who signed a six-year, $113 million deal with San Francisco, played seven years in the Korea Baseball Organization and hit .349 with 23 home runs and 113 RBIs in 2022 while winning their version of a Gold Glove Award for center fielders. If Chourio were only competing against rookies playing in their first pro seasons (in a major league), then he would be a strong favorite in the NL. But going against Yamamoto and Lee makes it an unfair competition for the 20-year-0ld. And if Yamamoto doesn’t win the award, it would be fair to say the Dodgers made a $325 million mistake, which I just don’t see happening here. The Rookie of the Year eligibility rules should be changed so that service time in foreign leagues is counted in the future.
6. The Norfolk Tides have a better team than the Oakland A’s.
ON POINT
This is not a difficult one for me. Norfolk, the Orioles’ Triple-A affiliate, is loaded with prospects. It’s one of the best Triple-A teams I’ve ever seen. The Tides’ roster includes future stars such as the best prospect in baseball, Jackson Holliday; an impact middle-of-the-order bat, Coby Mayo; and a couple of outfield power bats in Heston Kjerstad and Kyle Stowers. If the A’s had a chance to trade their entire major-league roster for the Orioles’ Triple-A roster, they would do it in a Sacramento second without any debate. How strong is Baltimore’s farm system? Because of all their stockpiled talent, the Orioles’ AL East run could be seven to nine years rather than the usual four to six years.
Jackson Holliday started the season at Triple-A Norfolk but should be in the majors soon. (Jonathan Dyer / USA Today)
GO DEEPER
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7. The Red Sox are going to win the AL East.
OVERREACTION
The Red Sox are off to a 7-3 start and their rotation has done an excellent job of changing their pitch sequencing and selections to throw more secondary pitches instead of fastballs, which has worked so far. However, the Red Sox still don’t measure up to the Orioles and Yankees in any aspect of the game — from offense to defense to pitching. So I don’t see them contending for a division title and think they’ll end up closer to the bottom of the division than the top.
8. The Angels should release third baseman Anthony Rendon.
ON POINT
Rendon helped lead the Nationals to a World Series title in 2019 when he hit 34 home runs and led the majors in RBIs with 126. He left for the Angels in free agency during that offseason, landing a seven-year, $245 million contract that has become a disaster. In five seasons with the Angels, he’s never hit 10 home runs, had 35 RBIs or even played 60 games in a single season. To top it off, he said this after reporting to camp this spring: “(Baseball) has never been a top priority for me. This is a job. I do this to make a living.” That mindset is one of the reasons the Nationals decided not to re-sign him after winning it all.
Rendon has dealt with injuries, and you never want to see that for any player. He will turn 34 in June and along with his frequent injuries it’s evident that his decline is here to stay. The Angels have signed him through 2026 but continuing to try to salvage this huge free-agent misstep just doubles down on the original mistake. They should just release him and move on. By the way, he’s 3-for-32 to start the season.
9. Age and decline have caught up with Francisco Lindor, who has gotten off to a slow start.
OVERREACTION
Lindor hit .145 in spring training over 61 plate appearances and started the regular season by going 1-for-31, which has some Mets fans concerned that he’s in decline. Nonsense! It might seem like Lindor is getting old because he’s played a decade in the majors, but he’s only 30 and still in his prime years. He finished ninth in the NL MVP voting in each of the past two years and won a Silver Slugger Award last year after hitting 31 home runs and stealing 31 bases. He’s just off to a slow start — nothing more, nothing less. Relax and chill, Mets fans, he’ll be fine. (And for what it’s worth, he went 2-for-5 with a home run and a double Sunday against the Reds.)
10. Catchers, pitchers and teams are figuring out better ways to cut down on stolen bases this year compared to last.
ON POINT
It’s early, so we’ll wait for more data, but there are some signs that support this. Bobby Witt Jr. stole 49 bases in 64 attempts last year but has already been caught three times in five tries this year. Corbin Carroll stole 54 bases in 59 attempts in 2023 but this season has been caught twice in four attempts. In addition, catchers’ pop times and pitchers’ times to the plate are both better than last year, which shows an effort is being made across the league to improve in this area.
(Top photo of Spencer Strider, Sean Murphy and the Phillies Phanatic: Chris Szagola / Associated Press)
