Since their introduction, the prevalence of advanced statistics in fantasy football to the point of ubiquity has served as both a blessing and a curse. Use led directly (and perhaps predictably) to misuse as fantasy managers deployed statistics the way a drunk man uses a lamppost — for support rather than illumination. In this series, we’ll do the exact opposite, turning our spreadsheets inside out to create unique stat combinations. This will help us sort noises from signals and let data-backed discovery identify our top targets. If you missed the quarterback installment of our fantasy football series, you can read it here.
This week we’ll specifically tackle ball carriers through an advanced statistical lens searching for value. First, I tried addressing the position as a whole, but differences in workload samples spoiled the data’s efficacy and frankly made a huge mess. I realized in order to meaningfully differentiate running backs at the very top, we’d need to separate the top RBs (+230 Touches) by volume before compartmentalizing them into five bins — true volume, explosivity, fantasy-specific efficiency, pass-game involvement, and touchdown equity. Then, thanks to my editor and compadre, Brandon Funston, I had the time to circle back and similarly chart the remaining running backs for late-round value to bolster bench depth.
Note: All stats courtesy of Trumedia — Parameters represent averages of that sample
Running Back 1-2 by Utilization — 27 Players with +230 Touches in 2023
Bell-Cow Volume: 7 RBs Above 62% Offensive Snaps and 60% Team-RB Touches
- Joe Mixon, HOU — 69.5% Off Snap%, 78.8% RB Touch%
- Travis Etienne, JAX — 73.2% Off Snap%, 76.1% RB Touch%
- Rachaad White, TB — 78.6% Off Snap%, 76.0% RB Touch%
- Saquon Barkley, PHI — 79.5% Off Snap%, 71.6% RB Touch%
- Christian McCaffrey, SF — 80.2% Off Snap%, 69.5% RB Touch%
- Tony Pollard, TEN — 70.5% Off Snap%, 67.9% RB Touch%
- Josh Jacobs, LV — 76.6% Off Snap%, 63.1% RB Touch%
Explosivity: 9 RBs Above 17.5 Touches Per Game and 6.5% Explosive Play Rate
- Christian McCaffrey, SF — 21.2 Touch/G, 11.8% Expl. Play%
- James Conner, ARI — 18.1 Touch/G, 10.0% Expl. Play%
- Joe Mixon, HOU — 18.2 Touch/G, 7.5% Expl. Play%
- Saquon Barkley, PHI — 20.6 Touch/G, 7.2% Expl. Play%
- Derrick Henry, BAL — 18.1 Touch/G, 7.2% Expl. Play%
- Rachaad White, TB — 19.8 Touch/G, 7.0% Expl. Play%
- Breece Hall, NYJ — 17.6 Touch/G, 6.9% Expl. Play%
- Alvin Kamara, NO — 19.6 Touch/G, 6.8% Expl. Play%
- Isiah Pacheco, KC — 17.8 Touch/G, 6.7% Expl. Play%
Fantasy-Specific Efficiency: 9 RBs Above 0.37 Fantasy Points Per Snap
- Raheem Mostert, MIA — 0.51 FPPS
- Christian McCaffrey, SF — 0.50 FPPS
- David Montgomery, DET — 0.47 FPPS
- Derrick Henry, BAL — 0.46 FPPS
- Breece Hall, NYJ — 0.46 FPPS
- Alvin Kamara, NO — 0.43 FPPS
- Kenneth Walker, SEA — 0.42 FPPS
- Jahmyr Gibbs, DET — 0.42 FPPS
- James Conner, ARI — 0.40 FPPS
- Kyren Williams, LAR — 0.39 FPPS
- Isiah Pacheco, KC — 0.39 FPPS
- James Cook, BUF — 0.38 FPPS
- Javonte Williams, DEN — 0.38 FPPS
- Joe Mixon, HOU — 0.37 FPPS
Pass Game Involvement: 9 RBs Above 47% 3rd Down Passing Snaps and 18% Target Per Route Run
- Alvin Kamara, NO — 53.8% 3rd Down Pass%, 32.0% Tar/Rt
- Ezekiel Elliott, DAL — 51.4% 3rd Down Pass%, 26.3% Tar/Rt
- Jahmyr Gibbs, DET — 66.4% 3rd Down Pass%, 21.8% Tar/Rt
- Austin Ekeler, WAS — 59.1% 3rd Down Pass%, 21.3% Tar/Rt
- Bijan Robinson, ATL — 90.1% 3rd Down Pass%, 20.5% Tar/Rt
- Christian McCaffrey, SF — 91.8% 3rd Down Pass%, 20.3% Tar/Rt
- Jerome Ford, CLE — 55.8% 3rd Down Pass%, 19.7% Tar/Rt
- Saquon Barkley, PHI — 60.3% 3rd Down Pass%, 19.6% Tar/Rt
- Travis Etienne, JAX — 66.7% 3rd Down Pass%, 18.3% Tar/Rt
TD Equity: 9 RBs Above 67% Goal-To-Go Snaps and 51% Goal-To-Go Opportunities (Attempts + Targets)
- Christian McCaffrey, SF — 87.5% OffSnap GTG%, 60.7% Opps G2G%
- Najee Harris, PIT — 76.5% OffSnap GTG%, 56.4% Opps G2G%
- Saquon Barkley, PHI — 85.0% OffSnap GTG%, 55.9% Opps G2G%
- Joe Mixon, HOU — 97.1% OffSnap GTG%, 54.4% Opps G2G%
- Josh Jacobs, LV — 90.2% OffSnap GTG%, 54.1% Opps G2G%
- Kyren Williams, LAR — 86.2% OffSnap GTG%, 53.6% Opps G2G%
- James Conner, ARI — 75.0% OffSnap GTG%, 52.8% Opps G2G%
- Alvin Kamara, NO — 74.5% OffSnap GTG%, 52.6% Opps G2G%
One player pops in all five metrics as the undisputed head of the pack. Draft Christian McCaffrey, people. That was easy, huh? Thanks for reading and good luck… Kidding!
In all seriousness, if you do have the option to draft McCaffrey, do it. That said, the remaining +90% of teams need other options, and these lists will help us find them. If you have a draft slot somewhere in the middle of the first round, Breece Hall crushed every efficiency stat and remains in line to get the necessary volume to finish as the top-scoring fantasy RB. Draft him proactively in the opening round. If I miss on CMC and Hall early, there’s one other back with 230 carries in 2023 I’d spend a premium pick on. Isiah Pacheco cleared the bars for both efficiency and explosivity but just needs more opportunities. He closed out the regular season with at least 4 receptions in four straight games, so there’s also upside in a prolific passing game.
Beyond the obvious, I’ll admit I don’t always know where these investigations will take me, and that’s part of the fun. But I could never imagine the disparity between the results and my own rostership through roughly a hundred drafts. Granted, the majority are best ball teams, but that doesn’t compensate for the gap. I’m not exaggerating when I say I buried Saquon Barkley, Joe Mixon, and Alvin Kamara so far in my ranks there’s no way to ever draft them. I guess pegging them as dusty and having lost a step suddenly feels misplaced and apologies may be in order.
I still contend Barkley’s a fade at ADP (11 overall) since he needs a downgrade in both passing and TD equity moving to Philly — but I do admit he shocked me with that explosive rate at such a high volume. As far as Mixon goes, he’s heading to a high-powered offense with a need for his specific skillset. If he can repeat last year’s volume now that he’s in Houston, there’s no reason to avoid drafting him. I’m standing corrected, having re-examined my priors on these RBs appearing on four of the lists (above) with the potential for legitimate RB1 fantasy output. The only other back with four mentions, James Conner, returns to an improved surrounding environment in Arizona and already frequents my player page. Consider that last prior confirmed. As the 19th RB off the board, expect him to be on the vast majority of my teams going forward.
Given three of these four players remain available in the fifth round or later, the runway’s cleared for options. You can draft an elite RB early and come back for one of these three RB1s — or target two in Rounds 5-6, stacking three stud WRs plus a top 5 dual-threat QB with your first four picks.
Note: RB stats apply universally across fantasy formats for me with one caveat — full PPR GMs (my preferred style) must prioritize pass-game involvement over touchdown equity when mutually exclusive, while half PPR calls for the opposite.
Free, daily NFL updates direct to your inbox.
Free, daily NFL updates direct to your inbox.
Sign Up
Running Back 3-4 By Utilization — 48 Players Between 50-230 Touches
Relative Usage — 26 RBs Above +33% Touch Per Snap
Target Earning: 25 RBs Above 18% Target Per Route Run
Explosivity: 24 Players Above 7% Explosive Play Rate
Fantasy Specific Efficiency: 16 RBs Above 0.35 Fantasy Points Per Snap
When it comes to the back end of drafts, the majority of late fantasy picks will either bust, get dropped, or both — so don’t be afraid to chase your intuition when the price is right. That leads us to our decision on the two crystal clear choices, per the data, to break out at RB this year, De’Von Achane and Chase Brown. Let’s do the easy part first. Considering the relative strength of Chase Brown’s numbers at a Round 10 price tag with the potential of Cincinnati to explode on offense, everyone should be circling him in every draft. Easy game, right? Achane’s another story altogether, because you have to take him in the second round… and I have gladly obliged.
Only one team gets a trophy full of their best friend’s tears when winter comes, so I play to win the game. And what’s the best way to do that? Find the players who have the potential to break the slate every week, provided they stay healthy. Who better exemplifies that than Miami’s sophomore phenom, De’Von Achane. On the topic of upside, I’d like to quote my favorite fantasy analyst (me) from a recent debate with Gary Davenport: “Achane makes the shortest list of most impactful players on a per-snap basis, finishing first as a rookie among all RBs with +100 touches in Fantasy Points/Snap (0.67), Fantasy Points/Touch (1.47), Yards Per Attempt (7.8), Yards Before Contact/Rush (2.7), Yards After Contact/Rush (5.1), EPA/Rush (0.28), and Explosive Rush Rate (15.5%).”
From a pragmatic standpoint, this all works. If I draft an elite WR in the first round, I’m clicking on Achane with confidence in the second round before circling back for James Conner in the fifth/sixth with targets locked on Chase Brown in Round 10 to complete the trifecta without any major sacrifices to my roster. Finally, top it off with a little last-round Jaleel McLaughlin — like I said, easy game.
Thanks so much for reading. Comments and feedback are more than welcome, so please feel free to let my bosses know how I’m doing below. Make sure to follow me on X @JohnLaghezza for a link to my best-selling NFL + MLB Substack page for rankings, weekly projections and all the fantasy, betting, and DFS data you can stomach.
(Top photo of De’Von Achane: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY)
