Q1 Commercial Vehicle Report: Inventory Jumps 93% Year-Over-Year

On-lot new commercial vehicle inventory per dealer increased 12.7% quarter over quarter (QoQ) and 93.1% year-over-year. - Image: Canva

On-lot new commercial vehicle inventory per dealer increased 12.7% quarter over quarter (QoQ) and 93.1% year-over-year.

Work Truck Solutions released its first quarter 2024 Commercial Vehicle Market Analysis, highlighting numerous key industry trends.

Commercial Vehicle Inventory Spikes

On-lot new vehicle inventory per dealer continues an upward trend, registering an increase of 12.7% quarter over quarter (QoQ) and a significant 93.1% year-over-year (YoY) jump. Medium-duty vehicles are key contributors to this growth, constituting 52.4% of the on-lot inventory.

New cutaway units are down in volume by 24.0% QoQ and 21.7% YoY. According to Work Truck Solutions, cutaways are generally the fourth highest in volume because they serve a variety of vocations, such as plumbing, construction, and HVAC, so these changes are impactful.

New commercial EVs, although still comparatively small in overall inventory numbers, also saw a significant increase in on-lot numbers, up 51.5% QoQ and 67% YoY. As a whole, however, new commercial EV sales remained virtually flat QoQ.

Used inventory showed the opposite trend, with an 8.4% decline QoQ and 18.6% YoY.

New Commercial Vehicle Prices Holding Steady

The latest data reveals average prices for new commercial vehicles are holding relatively steady, with a modest QoQ increase of 0.1% and a slight increase YoY, up 4.2%. However, the Q1 2024 average price of $58,913 is recorded as the highest average price to date.

New light-duty Battery Electric Vehicle pickup prices declined with a 2.5% drop QoQ and 18.1% YoY.

In contrast to the modest price growth with new work trucks, the used inventory sector presented a different scenario. Average prices of used work trucks and vans decreased 4.2% QoQ and 2.9% YoY.

Price drops reflect the rising median mileage of used work trucks and vans, which has increased 6.9% QoQ and 7.8% YoY.

Commercial Vehicle Days to Turn Jumps

Average Days to Turn (DTT) for new vehicle inventory increased 12.5% QoQ and 21.8% YoY. With an average of 105 days in Q1 2024, new vehicle DTT is the highest it’s been since Q4 2020.

Work Truck Solutions cited steady increases in inventory, record high prices, fewer leads, and high interest rates as causes.

The average DTT for used vehicles, however, showed a slight QoQ decrease of 4.7% QoQ, and a YoY decrease of 18.4%.

Sales per Dealer Declines

As indicated by the increased DTT, new vehicle movement, or sales per dealer, showed a declining QoQ trend of 12.6%.

This is partly due to the increased inventory relieving some of the pent-up demand, but also due to the market dynamics of increased interest rates and pressures towards new options for lowering emissions. However, the data still registered an 11.2% increase YoY.

Sales of used vehicles fell at an accelerated rate, with the average number of work trucks and vans moved per dealer decreasing 10.2% QoQ and 23.2% YoY.

Due to the increase in delivery demand, the number of available vans decline YoY, including empty cargo vans and minivans that were filling in for the decimated van inventory during the pandemic.

Renewed Competition Amongst Dealers

“As we unveil our Q1 2024 data findings, it’s clear there is improved availability of new work trucks, vans, and SUVs, which is welcome news to buyers after the last few years of restricted commercial vehicle inventory,” said Aaron Johnson, CEO of Work Truck Solutions.

Johnson noted that the swell in new vehicle inventory, coupled with increased Days to Turn (DTT), is sparking renewed competition among commercial vehicle dealers.

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