The wisdom of an NHL team avoiding a panic trade early in the season is proven every fall.
The last time the Edmonton Oilers went fishing in shark-infested waters came in late December 2019, when Peter Chiarelli’s two Sunday trades for defence (Brandon Manning and Alex Petrovic) moved the needle not at all for the soon-to-be-fired general manager.
On the day of the trades, Edmonton’s record (18-17-3, 39 points in 38 games) had the team sixth in the Pacific Division. At the time of Chiarelli’s firing, the Oilers’ record with the new additions (5-7-0) saw them fall to seventh in the division.
Early-season desperation trades rarely work.
This fall, new Oilers general manager Stan Bowman indicated the path forward during an interview with The Athletic’s Daniel Nugent-Bowman:
“We’ll probably start to narrow that focus maybe around Christmas. From Games 40 to 50 is when we’re going to try to really decide which type of player would be the best one to add. If we can add a defenceman, we’d like to.”
He also mentioned that goaltending had been inconsistent, but stopped short of calling it a need.
In an article for The Athletic on Thursday, Pierre LeBrun and Chris Johnston tackled where the top targets would go, and both chose the Oilers for some prominent names between now and the deadline.
Johnston and LeBrun have both been reporting about possibly available players leading up to the deadline, and there are several who would be attractive targets for Bowman.
Needs: Defence
Bowman made a couple of solid moves in the shadow of the Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway offer sheets, and those moves (acquiring Vasily Podkolzin and Ty Emberson) have helped the depth on left wing and right defence.
The team has also received a brilliant performance from the tandem of Darnell Nurse and Brett Kulak, buying time during the season and giving the coaching staff another wrinkle for the 2025 postseason.
The defensive upgrade probably comes on the right side, and the odd man out is probably Troy Stecher. He has played well this year, and could supplant Emberson, but the Oilers may well see Emberson as a long-term option on the third pair.
Head coach Kris Knoblauch, with defensive coaches Paul Coffey and Mark Stuart, have shown management who they trust through the season’s first stanza. Both Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard are playing more than seven minutes per game versus elites, according to Puck IQ. Nurse and Kulak are around six minutes per game against the best available opposition. Stecher and Emberson are at four minutes or less against top opposition.
There’s a sense the club would be interested in a left defenceman who could also play the right side. That makes sense in light of the Nurse-Kulak duo having success.
Puck IQ recommends: Defence
Looking at Puck IQ’s assessment of left-handed blueliners who are facing elites while also performing for sellers at the deadline, we get some interesting options.
TOI per game versus elites, via Puck IQ
The availability of these names isn’t guaranteed, it’s a look at the players who are trusted by current coaches who could be a fit for Edmonton. Also, the price to acquire a player like Bowen Byram may well exclude the Oilers from making a competitive offer.
Those things aside, there’s a nice range of talent here and Byram would be an exceptional long-term bet.
Olli Määttä keeps showing up in a good way for mediocre teams this year and that may get him a chance for Stanley with a deadline deal. Bowman acquired him and then dealt him while in Chicago, a small piece of trivia that connects the two men.
A guess would have Mike Matheson of the Montreal Canadiens as both qualified for the role required and priced at an acceptable level for Bowman.
Needs: Forwards
The Oilers have an embarrassment of riches at centre, where Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Adam Henrique, Derek Ryan and Noah Philp (currently with the AHL Bakersfield Condors) represent the gold standard at the position.
Nugent-Hopkins most often checks down to the wing, where the organization has a plethora of effective skill wingers and complementary forwards who can play with skill.
Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, Viktor Arvidsson, Jeff Skinner and currently injured Evander Kane are skill forwards who can contribute on the wing.
Podkolzin, Corey Perry, Mattias Janmark and Kasperi Kapanen are all capable of sliding in on a skill line and having short-term success in a complementary offensive role.
That’s nine men who can play the wing when all are healthy.
A right-handed centre could be a need, but it isn’t clear that is the case. Philp had a cup of coffee this season and was effective. He brings size, speed, checking ability and enough skill to survive in the NHL.
Bowman may shoot the moon and acquire someone like Taylor Hall of the Chicago Blackhawks at the deadline, but there’s no strong need to make that kind of move. Bowman might wish to bring in Detroit Red Wings winger Patrick Kane, but he isn’t having a strong season.
Yanni Gourde of the Seattle Kraken would be an interesting style fit for the team.
Needs: Goaltending
At the end of November, when Bowman was talking to Nugent-Bowman, the goaltending was a troubling situation. Since then, both of Edmonton’s goaltenders have taken a big step forward.
The best way to measure goaltending is via five-on-five save percentage. Here are the month-by-month numbers.
| Player | October | November | December |
|---|---|---|---|
|
0.89 |
0.908 |
0.926 |
|
|
0.943 |
0.893 |
0.935 |
All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick
Breaking things down in this way does a great job of explaining the improvement and the easing of worries. Skinner has a history of struggling followed by coming on strong as the season progresses.
Bowman might feel a low-cost addition (Jonathan Quick of the New York Rangers) would be appropriate, and the team could run three goaltenders into the final stages of the season and playoffs.
The asset and cap expense for Anaheim Ducks goalie John Gibson would seem to be a bridge too far.
Summary
The most likely deadline move for Bowman will be a defenceman, and it appears to be trending toward a left-handed player who can also play the right side. That’s a specific player type and we have the names narrowed down to six or seven.
Based on performance this season, it’s unlikely Bowman will be able to acquire a defenceman who’s clearly better than Ekholm, Bouchard, Nurse or Kulak. That may indicate that someone like Matheson will be the deadline target as a third-pairing option who can slide up in a pinch.
Finding a player who’s close to Kulak’s level would be ideal but difficult. Kulak’s level this season is beyond expectation.
Skinner has been solid in goal, but Bowman was hired to win the Stanley Cup and he may not feel Calvin Pickard is a substantial second choice. Acquiring Quick may be viewed as a middling transaction, but the brave move (Gibson from the Ducks) would be far more expensive and the upgrade in talent appears to be razor-thin based on established levels of ability (which I define as the past three seasons).
The idea of acquiring a right-handed centre is popular among Oilers fans, but runs counter with astute team building. Philp is waiting in Bakersfield, the organization should give him a long audition in the second half. The club may solve an issue internally and at no additional cost to the prospect pool and draft pick arsenal.
Bowman was correct in keeping his powder dry, and might be wise to make small moves at the deadline.
His early work in acquiring Podkolzin, Emberson and Kapanen came at low cost and high payoff. That would seem to be the play here as the club enters 2025.
(Photo of Mike Matheson: David Kirouac / USA Today)
