In a potential wild-card round preview, the Packers (9-4) visit the Seahawks (8-5) on Sunday night. Our Packers beat writer Matt Schneidman and Seahawks beat writer Michael-Shawn Dugar break it down.
Schneidman: I have a feeling this could be the first of two flights to Seattle for me in the next month. Mike Macdonald has his guys playing some good ball over the last four games entering Sunday night’s big matchup. What’s been working for the Seahawks on their four-game winning streak?
Dugar: Macdonald’s defense ranks second in opponent points per drive over the last four weeks. Teams have had a difficult time establishing the run and when they’ve put the ball in the air, the results haven’t been great; Seattle has a league-leading five interceptions since Week 11 including a pair of pick-sixes. Seattle’s defense cooled off after its 3-0 start but after multiple lineup tweaks and some schematic adjustments, Macdonald has a top-10 unit, which is the primary reason the Seahawks have won four straight games.
Schneidman: It’s interesting you mention how stout they’ve been against the run because Josh Jacobs is balling right now. He’s third in the NFL in rushing yards and has seven rushing touchdowns in the last three games. The Packers as a team rank third in the NFL in yards after contact per rush, according to TruMedia, and Jacobs is tied for second in the NFL among running backs with 58 missed tackles forced, according to Pro Football Focus. Who stands out on Seattle’s defensive line behind Leonard Williams? Jordan Love shouted out the Seahawks’ D-line multiple times this week, so he’s well aware of what it brings in both the run and pass game.
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Dugar: Seattle’s outside linebackers have been excellent at setting edges. Boye Mafe and Derick Hall aren’t putting up big numbers against the run but their physicality at the point of attack is a big reason why opposing running backs haven’t been able to dominate games over the last month. Another name to know is one Packers fans may be familiar with: Jarran Reed. The one-time Packer is back with his original team and having a good year against the run. Much of what Reed does on the interior allows the other guys to make plays near the line of scrimmage.
Schneidman: J-Reed! That’s one from the archives around here. I remember his big-time forced fumble and recovery on Christmas in Miami two years ago. Speaking of another J-Reed, there’s Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed and a host of others like emerging tight end Tucker Kraft, big-play threat Christian Watson and others that Love can make his No. 1 guy on any given day. Reed, probably the closest thing Green Bay has to a true No. 1 receiver, had no catches on one target last Thursday in Detroit while Watson had four for 114. Those numbers could easily be flipped on Sunday night. I feel the Seahawks have one of the best cornerback rooms that doesn’t get talked about enough. Would you agree?
Evan Williams was upgraded to a full participant in practice today. He’s still in the concussion protocol from last Thursday, but that’s a good sign for his Sunday availability. pic.twitter.com/3AjK9pwJew
— Matt Schneidman (@mattschneidman) December 13, 2024
Dugar: Yes, Seattle’s cornerback room has quietly been very good. Devon Witherspoon plays nickel and outside cornerback, often in the same drive, and hasn’t allowed a touchdown this season. Josh Jobe was promoted from the practice squad in Week 7 and has surrendered just one score (against Davante Adams in Week 11) while allowing a passer rating when targeted of 77.8, which ranks 21st among corners to play at least 200 coverage snaps, according to Pro Football Focus (for reference, Jaire Alexander ranks 23rd with a rating of 79.9).
Riq Woolen has been more generous in the touchdown department (five allowed, according to PFF) so there’s some good news if Packers fans want an optimistic view. That said, Woolen is a 6-foot-4 former Pro Bowler with 4.2 speed and long arms so it’s not as if he’s a weak link on the outside. He’s also part of the reason Seattle ranks among the top 10 in fewest yards allowed to receivers (four spots below Green Bay, which ranks fifth).
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Schneidman: I’m glad you brought up Alexander. Let’s shift to Green Bay’s defense against Seattle’s offense. If I’m not mistaken, Alexander played a role in getting DK Metcalf ejected the last time these two teams played in 2021. The 27-year-old cornerback can still be elite if healthy, but that’s a big if. He’s played in only seven games this season after playing in only seven last season with a litany of injuries. His latest was a torn PCL, which he reaggravated coming back too early in Week 11. He’s been a second-team All-Pro in each of the last two seasons he’s played at least 15 games (2020 and 2022) and told me recently he thinks he can still regain that form this season.
He’s missed the last three games but has been a full participant at practice both days this week. My guess is he plays, but you never know with him until 90 minutes before kickoff. Alexander might be the tipping point in my prediction of a Packers win or loss, especially because of how banged up the entire secondary is. Starting nickel Javon Bullard, a rookie second-rounder from Georgia, won’t play because of an ankle injury suffered last week. Starting safety Evan Williams, another rookie, is still in concussion protocol despite practicing in full on Thursday. If both rookies don’t play, that means special teamer Zayne Anderson plays alongside Xavier McKinney, Keisean Nixon slides inside to nickel and Eric Stokes and Carrington Valentine play outside if Alexander also doesn’t. That ain’t beating the Seahawks. If Alexander plays, he can shut down one side of the field if he’s on his game and leave the best option of Stokes or Valentine to play the other outside spot.
Regardless, the Seahawks’ receivers are a tough test. Tell me about that trio.
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Dugar: In that 2021 game, Metcalf grabbed the facemask of Henry Black and mushed Rasul Douglas in the face. Metcalf said the facemask grab happened because Black repeatedly called him “the b-word,” which is a no-no as far as Metcalf is concerned. He’s only been slightly better at avoiding confrontation since then, so that’s something to monitor.
Geno Smith on Thursday referred to Alexander as “a perennial Pro Bowler, a top corner in this league,” so you can see the respect they have for him. Jaxon Smith-Njigba ranks sixth in receiving yards and has statistically been their WR1, but he’s benefitting from teams structuring their defense to ensure Metcalf doesn’t kill them with deep passes. It’ll be interesting to see how Green Bay approaches that because from the outside it appears obvious that Smith-Njigba deserves just as much defensive attention as Metcalf. But giving him that respect probably means one-on-one opportunities for Metcalf, which is a dangerous way to live.
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Schneidman: OK, so maybe it wasn’t directly Alexander. It does seem like a pick-your-poison type deal with Seattle’s offense in the passing game. One thing the Packers will have to watch out for is Seattle’s running backs in the screen game. Head coach Matt LaFleur said Thursday that the Seahawks use Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet a lot in the screen game and called both guys “elite-level backs.” The Packers have struggled to stop screens in their last two games against the Dolphins and Lions, so that’ll be an area of emphasis in first-year defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley’s meeting rooms this week.
“We tweaked some calls and there’s some new things we’re going to try to do to continue to improve on them,” Hafley said Thursday. “When you get good players in space, you get those linemen out there so quickly and it’s tough.”
I think the X-factor for this game might be Green Bay’s so-far inconsistent pass rush. The Packers rank 21st in pressure percentage and 15th in sack percentage. Can they speed up Smith? Before we get to our game predictions, how has the Seahawks’ offensive line looked protecting the franchise quarterback?
Dugar: Smith-Njigba is another name to watch when talking about the screen game. He’s sixth among wide receivers in yards after the catch and has been a beast on screen passes. But regarding the offensive line, it has been a mess for most of the season. Geno Smith has had to either run for his life or get rid of the ball quickly most of the year. Sunday’s win over Arizona was the first time all year Smith hasn’t been sacked, which tells you all you need to know about the adventure it’s been up front. However, getting right tackle Abe Lucas back has been huge for them. They’ve figured out the center and right guard positions, too.
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Schneidman: All right, I said Seahawks 30, Packers 27 on your podcast earlier this week and even though Alexander looks likely to play, I’ll stick with that pick because I’m a man of my word. Even if he plays, he might be limited and Green Bay needs him to limit Smith and the Seahawks’ efficient passing game. I also don’t trust the Packers’ pass rush and Smith can pick apart this defense with time. What say you?
Dugar: I’m glad you’re a man of your word because I am admittedly not going to be here. On a separate podcast recorded Thursday morning, I picked the Packers but after further review and a bit more film study on Green Bay and the back seven in particular, I like the Seahawks to win a low-scoring game at home, 21-20.
(Photo of Jordan Love trying to elude Derick Hall: Wm. Glasheen / Imagn Images)
