Notre Dame, Penn State set for Orange Bowl clash in CFP semifinals. What are keys to the game?

The path to the national championship game is set, and either Penn State or Notre Dame will advance.

You won’t find two fan bases more excited to get to sunny South Florida and watch these blue-blood programs attempt to do something that’s been decades in the making. It’s the ultimate clash for the Nittany Lions, a former Independent, and the Fighting Irish, who still don’t need a conference to get to this point.

Ahead of the Orange Bowl, The Athletic beat writers Pete Sampson (Notre Dame) and Audrey Snyder (Penn State) put their heads together to share their thoughts on the game.

Pete Sampson: As much as the two fan bases might not like to admit it, Audrey, I feel like we’re covering similar programs riding similar seasons. A couple of historical College Football Playoff wins. Programs boosted and held down by narrative. Two head coaches who might benefit most from the CFP expansion. Great defense. Questionable offense.

How do you see it? Are Notre Dame and Penn State more similar or different heading toward the Orange Bowl next week?

The stage is set. 🏟️🍊@NDFootball vs. @PennStateFball in the 2025 #CFP Semifinal at the #CapitalOneOrangeBowl.#GoIrish #WeAre pic.twitter.com/Cz1LipGf6D

— Capital One Orange Bowl (@OrangeBowl) January 3, 2025

Audrey Snyder: Yes, these are two programs where so many of the narratives — and rightfully so — are based on whether or not these teams can punch up and win a marquee game. For Penn State, even after beating SMU and Boise State in the Playoff, there are still many questions about whether or not James Franklin’s team can win a game when it’s not favored. Penn State is superb at taking care of business in games it’s favored in. They’ve got that part mastered. This program, though, is still searching to change the big-game narrative. Here’s their chance. Penn State got the favorable Playoff path and capitalized on it. This season, it lost to Ohio State and Oregon. But unlike Notre Dame, there wasn’t one puzzling loss. Instead, it was more of the same with the gut punch to Ohio State.

Now, there’s a golden opportunity here for Penn State, and the satisfaction level should the Nittany Lions somehow beat Notre Dame and Ohio State for a national title would surely thrill fans for quite some time. The fact that there are so many Notre Dame fans in Pennsylvania, too, is going to make for some tense households and bars this week.

Another parallel at this point in the year — this is Penn State’s 16th game — is the health of this team. The big question for Penn State right now is the status of star edge rusher Abdul Carter, who exited the Fiesta Bowl with an apparent left shoulder injury and didn’t return.

How healthy is Notre Dame after coming off the Sugar Bowl, and is two fewer days of recovery and prep that significant?

Sampson: Pretty banged up. As much fun as the 12-team CFP has been for fans (of some schools), it’s been a test of attrition for the players. Notre Dame is already down its top cornerback (Benjamin Morrison) and its most physical defensive tackle (Rylie Mills). Now they might be without star running back Jeremiyah Love (knee), who got hurt against USC, went off against Indiana and seemed to aggravate the injury against Penn State. Right guard Rocco Spindler is playing through a bad ankle, and defensive tackle Howard Cross got banged up against Georgia with another ankle injury.

I was shocked at how physically Notre Dame played against Georgia considering all the injuries. But Marcus Freeman has a clear vision for what this team needs to do to win — be aggressive (fourth-down calls, fake punts, lots of man-to-man defense) and hit the crap out of you. It’s sort of the opposite of Notre Dame under Brian Kelly, who was more conservative, get to the fourth quarter, figure out how to grind out a win.

That’s sort of how I thought Penn State has played under James Franklin. Too buttoned up in the big games. Am I wrong? And did Oregon, SMU and Boise State change any of that? Watching the Big Ten Championship Game, I felt like the Nittany Lions cut it loose, even in a loss.

Snyder: Penn State looked tight late against Ohio State. How else can I explain letting a 10-0 lead slip away and then, once they got down around the goal line, rather than getting the ball in the hands of do-it-all tight end Tyler Warren, they instead were hellbent on trying to pound it in with their running backs — and failed. They were overthinking it as a staff. However, they learned from that. Since then, they have made sure to get Warren, the Mackey Award winner who finished seventh in Heisman balloting, heavily involved. Warren will throw passes, catch them and run with the ball. He’s one of those players that if he wasn’t playing against Notre Dame, they’d probably love watching him.

The most telling change for Penn State came against Minnesota. The Lions were conservative all game. They were punting around midfield in the first half and were on upset alert. But late in the fourth quarter — with the game in the balance — they came up with a fake punt to a true freshman tight end (Luke Reynolds). It was one of three fourth-down conversions on that drive that Penn State used to run out the clock and end it on their terms. Afterward, Franklin said that they knew they needed to be more aggressive. He reiterated that after the SMU game too.

Once Penn State got down big to Oregon, that seemed to take all the pressure off and allow them to just play. It was too late, but that loss was a bit of a confidence builder in that it showed they could get into a shootout and eventually keep pace with the No. 1 team in the country. I think they need to come out of the gates with that same aggression and live with the results. Drew Allar is a good enough quarterback to make some jaw-dropping throws. He’s also inconsistent enough that if Notre Dame rattles him, he may not respond well. Allar’s composure will be key. Penn State can run the ball and run it well, but I’m still waiting for the game where Allar shows that his NFL-caliber arm is ready for showtime.

After watching Notre Dame’s defense, it’s clear that they will make it difficult on Allar. Penn State’s receivers have struggled to get open, especially against good defenses. That’s been a theme here the last few years.

Why is this Notre Dame defense so good and who should Penn State be really worried about on that side of the ball?

Sampson: Notre Dame has a lot of really good and really old players on defense, so that’s a good place to start. But really it’s about Al Golden. Penn State fans probably have heard of him.

Golden has had a glow-up of sorts at Notre Dame to the point where people are starting to think about him less in terms of his tenure at Miami — maybe it’s just hard to win there? — and more about how he’s teaching an NFL scheme to college kids successfully. The Irish led the nation in pass efficiency defense in each of the past two years. Scheme is part of that. Golden tore Caleb Williams apart last season in South Bend. But Notre Dame can get got in the pass game if teams are willing to take shots at sophomore cornerback Christian Gray or freshman cornerback Leonard Moore. Notre Dame plays more man defense than anybody in the country other than Purdue (insert your own joke here), but you’re only going to make the Irish pay if you go vertical. Maybe that’s to Warren? If the Irish match him up with All-American Xavier Watts, that would be worth the price of admission. Notre Dame’s linebackers are good, but I’m not sure they’re sticking with that tight end in coverage.

I wanted to get into Allar a little more. How good is he? I watched the Ohio State game and wasn’t all that impressed. But against Oregon, I really liked what I saw. When he’s good, what’s working? When he’s not, what’s off?

Snyder: If Penn State needs to go vertical then this could get interesting. Allar flashes first-round potential, but the consistency is the part they’re hoping improves. In fairness to him, Penn State hasn’t given him much to work with in the receiving corps. That’s been the issue the last two years. There’s no No. 1 wide receiver, and while Warren erases a lot of that, it’s pretty common to see the running backs catching more passes than the receivers. What’s worked for Allar this year is really what’s worked for this entire offense.

Coordinator Andy Kotelnicki has found ways to creatively maximize the personnel. Penn State will send a massive offensive lineman in motion. They’ll line Warren up all over the place. Kotelnicki’s demeanor has also helped Allar open up and be more loose. It’s really been a perfect pairing. Now, the odd thing is what Penn State has done best this past month is running the ball with Nick Singleton (who nearly committed to Notre Dame on a visit a few years ago) and Kaytron Allen. They don’t need Allar to take the game over, but I’m still thinking he will at some point this postseason.

Let me throw a hypothetical at you: Notre Dame wins this game if …?

Sampson: If Al Golden gets ahead of Andy Kotelnicki on the call sheet, Notre Dame should win this game. And Golden has been on a heater all season, with the exception of the USC game when the Trojans went pass-first and got the Irish on their heels. It doesn’t feel like Penn State is built that way. It’s just that Kotelnicki is incredibly creative, so it wouldn’t shock me if he got Golden early in the game on the call sheet.

The biggest thing for Notre Dame is the most obvious. Win the turnover margin, which is so duh that it’s barely worth mentioning. The Irish lead the nation in takeaways with 31 and they’re third in margin at plus-1.29 per game. Notre Dame’s only loss of the year — it was against Northern Illinois, in case you missed that — was the only time the Irish lost the turnover margin. Riley Leonard threw two picks. Another Notre Dame standard is creating something on special teams, whether that’s a fake punt, fake field goal or that kickoff return touchdown against Georgia.

To me, the wild card is defending Warren. Notre Dame hasn’t seen somebody like him, and defending tight ends hasn’t been a strength of this defense.

If Penn State wins, what happens?

Snyder: The Penn State run game has been red hot this past month. Singleton and Allen are playing their best football, and the offensive line has been superb. There’s a path to victory that way. And if the offensive line can pick up the many blitzes Golden throws at them, I like Penn State’s chances.

But if the defense rattles Allar, there’s no telling how he’ll respond. Either he plays well and leads Penn State to a national title game, or perhaps the Allar of old (last year) shows up and they start airing it out with poor results. Penn State has a defense that can flip this game in its favor. If Carter is healthy enough to be a difference-maker, they’re going to again be a force. We’re going to see two excellent defenses. To me, this game is about Allar and how he responds under pressure.

(Photos of Riley Leonard, Drew Allar: Gary A. Vasquez, Mark J. Rebilas / Imagn Images)