A positive week is always a good week when betting on sports, and that’s exactly what my NFL Projection Model had to kick off the 2023 NFL regular season. Sure, the Steelers are dead to me for being unable to get us to the window when the 49ers scored 30 points. And do not get me started on the Vikings dominating the Bucs en route to an outright loss because they were -3 in the turnover department. Two fumbled snaps! I digress. A winning week is a winning week, and we move on to the next.
Last week’s record: 4-3, +0.75 units
Season record: 4-3, +0.75 units, +11.7% ROI
It’s a smaller card this week, but still plenty of action. Hopefully, we can get our first total win of the year, as teams should bounce back from a historically low offensive efficiency last week. Three sides, one total. Good luck to us!
Please shop around at various sportsbooks for the best possible number. A half point here or five cents there will add up throughout the season.
Worst line to bet is the final number that I would make a bet at. For example, if I bet under 49.5 and the “worst line to bet” is 49 -110, I would not make that bet at 48.5 -110 or 49 -115.
All bets are to win one unit on favorites and risk one unit on underdogs unless otherwise noted. All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.
The Titans offense looked brutal against the Saints on Sunday and that’s not something you want to hear when you face the Chargers offense the next week. The Chargers gave up a ton of yards to Tua Tagovailoa through the air last week but Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle won’t be lining up for the Titans. Far from it, actually. Maybe Vrabel can coach up the Titans this week but he hasn’t been able to do that since November of last season (their last win). Chargers just have too much firepower for the Titans to stay within the number here.
Worst line to bet: Chargers -3 (-110)
The Raiders offensive output wasn’t exactly inspiring last week and to be honest, neither was the Bills. But hey, let’s go contrarian and play the over. My model thinks this should be around 49 so this is an easy bet at 47. Josh Allen probably — hopefully — played his worst game of the season last night and should bounce back against a below-average Raiders defense. Don’t be fooled by the Raiders shutting down the Broncos offense last week. That’s not a feat by any means.
Worst line to bet: Over 47 (-115)
Drops plagued the Chiefs — one returned for a touchdown — and still almost came away with a win against the Lions last Thursday night. Throw Travis Kelce (possibly) being back into the mix and I think this offense will have no problem bouncing back. The most surprising thing from that game against the Lions, though? The Chiefs defense. They were without star defensive tackle Chris Jones — who will likely be back this week — and slowed down a potent Lions offense. And Brandon Scherff got banged up last week so the Jaguars offensive line could be less than 100 percent. I’m also not a huge believer in this Jaguars defense against Patrick Mahomes.
Worst line to bet: Chiefs -3 (-115)
Los Angeles Rams +8.5 (-110) vs. San Francisco 49ers
This makes me a little nervous because the 49ers just annihilated the Steelers on the road but maybe this is a tad inflated? Matthew Stafford looked really good and this offense, even without Cooper Kupp, looks pretty dynamic with him behind center. Sure, maybe the Seahawks stink and the Rams will be outclassed here but I can’t pass here. The Rams took money late last week against the Seahawks, maybe they’ll have the same fate this week.
Worst line to bet: Rams +7.5 (-110)
Lines to watch
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions
Seattle has cluster injuries on the offensive line so there is no need to get involved until that gets cleared later in the week. If those injuries bounce Seattle’s way, they’re worth a play. The line will likely move with the injury news, so it must be quick.
Seahawks +6 (-110) if offensive line injuries are cleared up
Jerry Jeudy’s status is unknown, and if he’s not able to suit up, the Commanders are worth a play here. I’m not entirely sold on the Sam Howell experience (Jacoby Brissett might be better; the Jets should be calling), but I’m not sold on the Russell Wilson experience with no wide receivers. Again, you’re going to have to be quick.
Commanders +3.5 (-110) if Jerry Jeudy is ruled out
I’m not going to count teasers towards my overall record but I’ll keep count track of them on their own. Some nice teaser options this week so let’s give it a shot.
Falcons +7.5/49ers -2.5
(Photo of Justin Herbert: Harry How/Getty Images)