Michael Penix Jr. validated the Falcons’ bold decision to reshuffle the quarterback depth chart with a solid starting debut Sunday in a 34-7 victory against the Giants, potentially clearing the way for Kirk Cousins’ offseason exit.
Penix, the No. 8 pick in the draft, finished Sunday 18-of-27 passing for 202 yards, no touchdowns and an interception that bounced out of the hands of tight end Kyle Pitts. The lefty played with poise and showed a veteran-like ability to manipulate a defense on occasion, albeit against a team that’s slated to finish with the worst record in the NFL. But as the bar is concerned for a first career start, Penix aced the test.
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As we reported earlier this month, Penix has been a star at practice, so the Falcons believed he was capable of guiding them to the playoffs if called upon. His initial performance suggested their confidence was warranted.
To be clear, the Falcons have not yet decided what they’ll do with Cousins in 2025, according to a league source. There’s still too much that can happen before March that could impact their thought process. But the economics and asset management can’t be ignored when it comes to Cousins’ future, and teams around the league are preparing for the possibility the 36-year-old will become available.
Cousins has a no-trade clause and will earn a guaranteed $27.5 million in 2025, while the Falcons will incur a guaranteed $10 million in 2026 if he’s on the roster March 16, which is the fifth day of the 2025 league year.
If the Falcons want to trade Cousins, executives around the league believe they would have to consume a chunk of his contract to get anything of substance. And because Cousins’ contract has offset language, meaning the Falcons would have to pay the balance of his 2025 guaranteed money if Cousins were released, teams could be perfectly content to wait. Essentially, if Cousins is released, a team could sign him for the veteran minimum while he collects the remaining $27.5 million from Atlanta.
“He would have a market,” an executive said. “However, the contract is what will hold it back. The compensation would depend on how much Atlanta would eat or if he would rework the contract.”
To be fair, Cousins’ contract is hardly an albatross on its own. It’s the combination of injury uncertainty and age as it relates to his performance. Plus, the Falcons don’t have much leverage because of their obvious motivation to make Penix the face of the franchise.
Cousins has looked skittish in the pocket while coming off his torn Achilles, and defenses have adjusted accordingly. Cousins’ 9-1-1 line (nine interceptions, one touchdown, one win) over his final five starts led the Falcons to call upon Penix. Cousins’ 16 picks are the most in the NFL.
Still, he’s been successful enough throughout his career that a team would be comfortable with his contract if his production were more of a sure thing. But has the nightmarish turn this season been a one-off with the Achilles recovery or more of an indication that not everyone ages like Tom Brady?
A handful of teams will be desperate for a quarterback this offseason, particularly with a shaky draft class and questionable crop of free agents, but there would be a hefty risk involved with acquiring Cousins. If his decline is irreversible, the trade would cause a ripple effect with other elements of the team-building process. He’d likely be good enough to keep them out of the top 10 of the 2026 draft but not good enough to make them a threat in the postseason, and then they’d still have the $10 million guarantee on the books in 2026.
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Seven executives and coaches were asked to assess Cousins’ trade value. None believed the Falcons would get more than a day-three draft pick, and they’d only get that much if they consumed a significant percentage of his guaranteed money. The more likely scenario is teams would wait for the Falcons to cut him.
Atlanta still hasn’t determined its next course of action. Penix has two games to go — and potentially the playoffs — to solidify his standing as the franchise’s long-term starter. But what if he struggles? Or gets injured? The Falcons aren’t going to unload Cousins if they enter the offseason with the slightest bit of uncertainty with Penix. And if it is necessary, they can continue to afford to roster both QBs with Penix on his rookie contract.
The outcome might seem obvious. And for the Falcons, as long as Penix continues to show his potential, they should be OK with that.
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Geno time
Geno Smith’s career resurgence has continued into his third full season as the Seahawks’ starter, but it’s hardly been a perfect year.
The 34-year-old has completed 70.1 percent of his passes, which would be a career best, for 3,937 yards, 17 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. He’ll almost certainly finish with career highs in completions, attempts and passing yards, but he might also end the season leading the league in interceptions.
WHAT. A. FINISH.
📺: @NFLonFOX pic.twitter.com/EFXsCwFDzM
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) December 23, 2024
Smith has proven he can handle a high-volume workload, evidenced by the Seahawks’ tendencies to ignore the running game at times. But he’d surely benefit from a complementary rushing attack and, as any quarterback would attest, a healthier offensive line.
“I personally believe he does give them a chance every game, and that’s more than a chunk of teams can say right now,” a defensive coach said. “Geno’s season has been full of peaks and valleys. He can spin the football. He’s a good athlete for the position. But the inconsistency of accuracy and decision-making will always be where the valleys exist for him.
“They can’t run the ball, and even though he has a plus supporting cast, the more throws they ask him to make in a game, the more it’s going to go the other way. It’s just a fact. The red area turnovers have been brutal. But he is streaky, and the peaks can convince someone that he belongs.”
Smith has thrown four interceptions in the end zone, including a pick-six in an overtime loss to the Rams. He was also intercepted at the 2-yard line against the 49ers. The Seahawks were 1-4 in those games. Now sitting a game behind the Rams for the NFC West lead and out of a playoff spot, such mistakes are magnified when assessing where things went wrong this season.
Smith is under contract through 2025, so the Seahawks are entering an interesting offseason with their quarterback. He’ll have a $14.8 million base salary, plus a $10 million bonus if he’s on the roster March 16. With a $38.5 million cap hit, it could behoove the Seahawks to extend the deal.
But they’ve also been hot on the quarterback trail in recent drafts; they just haven’t been in position to get their guy. It wouldn’t be a surprise if they’re more aggressive with their approach in the upcoming draft, even if it’s to stash and develop Smith’s successor.
Of course, the Seahawks don’t have to do anything with Smith’s contract. He tends to be at his best when he feels like he’s got something to prove, which has become an ever-present quality at this point.
Smith has given the Seahawks enough over the last three seasons to keep them above .500 and in playoff contention, so they’d do well to stick with him for at least another year. They’d also do well to balance out the offense to help mitigate the turnovers.
Rookies on the rise
It wasn’t just a big day for Penix. The first three picks in the draft — Chicago’s Caleb Williams, Washington’s Jayden Daniels and New England’s Drake Maye — all played well Sunday and showcased franchise QB potential.
Williams finished 26-of-40 passing for 334 yards and two touchdowns in a 34-17 loss to the Lions. He’s got 10 touchdowns over his last five games and hasn’t thrown an interception in nine consecutive outings. He’s only got one pick in his last dozen starts, showing remarkable ball security despite the ongoing shortcomings with his field vision — something that should undoubtedly improve with more experience.
Daniels was 24-of-39 passing for 258 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions, along with nine carries for 81 yards, in a 36-33 victory to snap the Eagles’ 10-game winning streak and keep the Commanders in line for a playoff berth.
Daniels delivered the game-winning touchdown pass with 6 seconds to play. Half of his 22 touchdown passes have come in the fourth quarter, including three that gave his team the lead. His poise under pressure has been consistently phenomenal all season.
JAMISONNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN
📺 #PHIvsWAS FOX pic.twitter.com/k718liTMwK
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) December 22, 2024
Maye finished Sunday 22-of-36 passing for 261 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in a 24-21 loss to the Bills. The end-zone pick was ugly and the result of miscommunication. He also threw a backward pass that was recovered for a touchdown on a play that was botched by a number of Patriots. But his early touchdown pass to Kayshon Boutte was the latest example of the big-time throws Maye is capable of making. He’ll curb the mistakes once the Patriots clean up the chaos around him.
Maye’s leadership and accountability are two more reasons to believe he’ll be a franchise quarterback. While publicly backing head coach Jerod Mayo and offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt after the game, Maye said, “We’re just plays away, and it’s basically me turning the ball over.”
The early returns on the six first-round QBs have been encouraging, even if J.J. McCarthy is still a projection while recovering from a meniscus repair. There’s a long way for these guys to go, but it’s shaping up to be an all-time draft class.
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Dropped out of the rankings: Kirk Cousins (benched), No. 21 last week; Jameis Winston (shoulder injury), No. 26 last week; Will Levis (benched), No. 29 last week; Tommy DeVito (benched), No. 32 last week.
(Photo of Michael Penix and Kirk Cousins: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)
