New details in Shohei Ohtani’s ex-interpreter betting saga; the Orioles’ wealth of young talent

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Breaking news in the gambling scandal surrounding Shohei Ohtani’s interpreter, the Orioles have a decision to make and we look at two teams struggling in the central divisions. I’m Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal — welcome to The Windup!

New reporting answers key question in Ohtani-interpreter story

The questions about Shohei Ohtani’s involvement with an illegal bookmaker might be answered soon. As first reported in the New York Times, his former interpreter Ippei Mizuhara is “… in negotiations to plead guilty to federal crimes in connection with the purported theft.”

Included in that story: The amount stolen by Mizuhara may be more than the initially reported $4.5 million.

Some background: Last month, while the Dodgers and Padres were in South Korea, news broke that Mizuhara had been fired after amassing a large debt with Mathew Bowyer, who ran an illegal gambling book in California (where sports gambling is not legal). Ohtani’s name was reportedly included on some of Bowyer’s ledgers.

Mizuhara initially told reporters that Ohtani had willingly paid off the debt on behalf of his friend, before pivoting to a new explanation: He had stolen the money, and Ohtani did not know about the transactions. (That was the story that Ohtani also told when he read from a written statement in late March.)

The new reporting also answers one question: How could Mizuhara have stolen so much money without Ohtani’s knowledge? Evidence reportedly indicates that once Mizuhara had access to Ohtani’s bank account, he changed the settings so the star would not be notified about transactions.

Assuming there are no more surprise bombshells, this could clear Ohtani of any wrongdoing. In addition to the federal investigation, MLB is also currently investigating. The league declined comment.

It appears we’ll learn more about this case today: The U.S. Attorney in the Central District of California and leaders from the IRS and Homeland Security have planned a press conference for 10:30 a.m. PT in Los Angeles to announce a “development in a significant criminal investigation,” which is likely to be related to the latest development with Mizuhara.

More Ohtani: A California lawmaker is pushing to change the federal tax code that allows Ohtani to avoid paying an estimated $90 million in state taxes, thanks to the huge deferments in his contract.

Ken’s Notebook: Jordan Westburg just one of Orioles’ first-round wins

Jordan Westburg is one of the Orioles’ less ballyhooed first rounders. (Brian Fluharty / Getty Images)

I’m trying to figure out where third baseman Jordan Westburg fits in a comparison of the Baltimore Orioles’ recent first-round picks to the members of the Beatles.

Is he Pete Best, the forgotten first drummer? Ringo Starr, arguably the least talented musician? Or, might Westburg be headed for greater, Lennon-McCartney-type acclaim?

Ah, let’s not get carried away. The Dodgers, featuring a gaggle of veteran superstars, are baseball’s version of the Beatles. The Orioles’ kids are more like the early Jackson Five. Or six. Or nine.

On the night second baseman Jackson Holliday made his highly anticipated major-league debut, it was Westburg who provided the Orioles’ biggest blow Wednesday, a two-out, go-ahead three-run homer in the seventh inning against the Boston Red Sox.

Westburg was a less ballyhooed first-rounder than Holliday, the Orioles’ 30th overall pick out of Mississippi State in 2020. The team’s lineup Wednesday night included seven other draftees, plus a Rule 5 pick. Designated hitter Ryan O’Hearn was the only starter who had played for another organization.

And more kids are coming.

That’s right, the Orioles’ wealth of young talent goes beyond Holliday and catcher Adley Rutschman, the first overall picks in 2022 and ’19, respectively. Beyond Gunnar Henderson, a second-rounder in ’19 who is the reigning American League Rookie of the Year, and outfielder Colton Cowser, the fifth overall pick in ’21.

Four other top position prospects remain at Triple-A Norfolk — outfielder Heston Kjerstad (second overall, 2020); second baseman/outfielder Connor Norby (41st overall, 2021); outfielder Kyle Stowers (71st overall, 2019) and first baseman/third baseman Coby Mayo (fourth round, 2021). Holliday’s 1.077 OPS was the lowest of that group in the early going at Triple A.

The Baltimore Banner’s Danielle Allentuck related a group chat between Holliday and the other four, posting on X, “The message they sent after Holliday got called up? ‘One down, four to go.’” That wasn’t some idle boast. It’s pretty much fact.

Not that all four will necessarily play for the Orioles; there are only so many positions to go around. Orioles general manager Mike Elias already has traded three former draft picks, left-hander DL Hall and infielder Joey Ortiz (to the Milwaukee Brewers for Corbin Burnes) and infielder Darell Hernaiz (to the Oakland Athletics for Cole Irvin). Yet even after the Burnes deal, Elias is in position to trade for any player he wants at the trade deadline.

Granted, the Orioles tanked to the extreme, repeatedly securing top-five picks by averaging 111 losses in their three full seasons between 2018 and ’21. The draft lottery, introduced with the 2022 collective-bargaining agreement, will discourage any such shenanigans in the future. The Orioles, though, still had to hit on their selections. And develop them. Holliday is the latest. He won’t be the last.

Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado still struggling

A friend texted me a question last night: Outside the obvious future Hall of Famers — Mike Trout, Clayton Kershaw, et al. — what active players are currently close? Not surefire inductees if they retired right now, but within reach?

Two of the handful of names I landed on were 1B Paul Goldschmidt and 3B Nolan Arenado, currently fourth (61.5) and seventh (53.9) on the active position-player leaderboard in bWAR. According to Jay Jaffe’s JAWS metric (which evaluates a player’s Hall of Fame case by comparing him to existing Hall of Famers at his position), my hunch was pretty accurate:

But man, they’re not doing a whole lot to bolster their case this year.

Goldschmidt and Arenado finished in first and third in NL MVP voting as recently as 2022. But last year, both had a precipitous decline at the plate. Check out this weird statistical coincidence:

This year? Arenado sits at .570, Goldschmidt at .544.

As Katie Woo points out, the struggles of these two stars are accentuating the Cards’ paltry performance at the plate this year.

“The Cardinals have the eighth-lowest team OPS in the majors at .642 and the ninth-lowest slugging percentage at .348,” Woo writes. “Their 116 strikeouts are the fifth-highest and their average sits at a scant .219.”

Yikes.

Despite those numbers, yesterday’s 4-3 loss to Philadelphia still only puts St. Louis at 6-7. Unfortunately, that’s good for last place in a surprisingly strong NL Central. This was supposed to be a bounce-back year in St. Louis. So far, it sounds a bit more like a thud.

South Side suffering as big-name White Sox go down to injury

The Chicago White Sox are 12 games into the 2024 season, and things have already descended into abject chaotic calamity. A few years ago, the White Sox seemed poised to be great right about now, riding the career peaks of a promising young core of pitchers and position players.

But after two disastrous seasons, the teardown is in full effect, further evidenced by the trade of Dylan Cease to the Padres just before the season began. The three biggest names remaining — Eloy Jiménez, Luis Robert and Yoán Moncada — are now all on the injured list. Bizarrely, they were all injured running to first base.

“It all started this year when Eloy Jiménez pulled up lame after hitting a groundball against the Detroit Tigers on March 31,” Jon Greenberg writes. “On April 5, Luis Robert hobbled after rounding first on a double.”

On Wednesday, Moncada became the third to hit the shelf. As he ran to first base trying to beat out a groundball, he pulled up in obvious pain before crumbling to the ground. The diagnosis: a left hip adductor strain, which will keep him out for three to six months.

If it’s on the longer end of that, this could be the end of what has been a rather disappointing tenure in Chicago. Once regarded as a top prospect, Moncada has hit a good-but-not-extraordinary .254 (.756 OPS) in parts of nine seasons with no All-Star appearances and only one (2019) finishing in the top 21 in MVP voting.

His five-year extension worth $70 million expires after this season. It seems unlikely that the rebuilding White Sox will pick up their team option for next year.

In the meantime, the would-be White Sox empire continues to crumble, having never come all that close to completion. As if to emphasize the point, they blew a 5-0 lead last night, losing to the Guardians 6-5. Cleveland’s Bo and Josh Naylor both hit home runs in the fourth inning — and on Siblings Day!

Handshakes and High Fives

On the flip side of a rebuild, the Red Sox are starting to solidify their young core. Extending Ceddanne Rafaela is the latest puzzle piece to lock into place.

We’ve talked a lot about Tommy John surgery lately. But if you’ve found yourself smiling and nodding along, unsure of what exactly that entails, Cody Stavenhagen has a great explainer on all the nitty gritty details.

Kelsie Whitmore continues to blaze a trail for women in baseball. She’s the newest member of the Oakland Ballers.

Jackson Holliday might be in the big leagues now, but the Norfolk Tides still have a lineup that I wish we could see compete against big-league teams for a week or two.

It appears we have beef between Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh and Blue Jays manager John Schneider.

[cups hands] “PITCH MIX METRICS!!!” … OK, fellow baseball nerds, now that everyone else has moved on, read this story on Twins starter Joe Ryan by Dan Hayes and Eno Sarris.

Look at this catch by Christian Encarnacion-Strand! Look at it!

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(Top photo: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)