With trades and signings coming fast and furious, it’s a good time for another reader mailbag on the MLB offseason. Here are my answers to more than 25 questions from subscribers.
Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and length.
The Yankees have made a slew of moves since missing out on Juan Soto. (Brad Penner / Imagn Images)
Juan Soto is a great player, but given all the moves the Yankees have made since he signed with the Mets, are they actually a better team without him and with these new players instead? — James T.
I think one could argue they are a better team — at least for the regular season. Max Fried is a top-of-the-rotation starter, Devin Williams is an impact closer, and Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt combined could provide similar home run power to Soto. The Yankees’ outfield defense will be better with Aaron Judge moving back to right field and Bellinger taking over in center field. So … better rotation, better bullpen and better defense. That said, I’d rather have Soto for the postseason because of how special his bat is and how good he is in big moments.
Soto and Judge together were like Mantle and Maris. Now the Yankees will just have to win in different ways without him. Certainly, their pitching and defense are much better than last season following this flurry of moves.
How might a front office go about recruiting Sasaki when money isn’t really the issue? Who do they bring in? Who is involved in the prep? What goes into it? — Debra B.
When recruiting Sasaki, here some important factors that teams will prioritize:
• The major-league team’s chances of winning in the short- and long-term
• Strength of the farm system for promoting players and/or acquiring players via trades
• Financial resources to be competitive at all levels
• The pitching room, including the veteran pitchers on their staffs as well as the pitching coaches that he’d work with; also the plan they have in place for him to get him better right away
• The analytics and technology the organization will make available to maximize his talents
• Geography — selling the home city, from its culture to restaurants to communities to the ballpark to the club’s spring training home
• The translators and support staff the team will provide to help him on and off the field
• Getting a few of the team leaders to attend a recruiting meeting with the owner, general manager, manager and pitching coaches
• Demonstrating how the organization functions as a family and how they’ll take care of his family
GO DEEPER
Why Roki Sasaki, the top prospect with ace upside, isn’t necessarily destined for Dodgers
What are you hearing on Corbin Burnes? Where do you think he’ll end up? — Steven C.
The most likely landing spots for Burnes are the Blue Jays or Giants with the Red Sox and Orioles still possibilities, and I think he’ll sign with whoever offers the most years and dollars. Burnes will get more years and dollars than Fried (eight years, $218 million) and probably won’t sign until after Sasaki picks his team, which could remove one of the teams that’s pursuing Burnes from the equation.
There’s been a lot of speculation about what the Phillies are asking for in exchange for Alec Bohm. In your opinion, what would a realistic return be for him? — Ben C.
Bohm is coming off a 3.0-bWAR season in which he batted .280/.332/.448 with 15 home runs and a 117 OPS+. I think that type of performance is what you can expect going forward with perhaps a tad more home run potential. Bohm has two more years of team control. If the Phillies were to trade him, I think that equates to a No. 3-type starter or a high-leverage reliever or a pair of solid prospects in the 7 to 15 range from an organization’s pool.
What do you think of the Phillies signing of Max Kepler? — Owen S.
I’m not sure I like the fit. He’s an above-average defender in right field, where he’s been more of a platoon player. He has a career slash line of .237/.318/.429 over 10 years with the Twins. You have to mix-and-match him against the opposing starting pitchers (career .655 OPS versus lefties). The Phillies plan to play him in left field, a position he’s never played in the majors. I thought $10 million was a steep price, especially after non-tendering Austin Hays, who was projected to make $6.4 million via arbitration, according to MLB Trade Rumors.
I would still like to see the Philadelphia make a trade with the White Sox for Luis Robert Jr. and go with an outfield of Nick Castellanos in right field, Robert in center and Brandon Marsh in left, then use Kepler and Johan Rojas as extra outfielders/plus defenders in right (Kepler) and center and left field (Rojas).
(Editor’s note: The following question was asked before the Mets agreed to a three-year deal with Sean Manaea.)
Despite having limitless resources, the Mets under David Stearns seem to prefer reclamation projects over established aces for starting pitching, highlighting their investments in player development. Of the pitchers they’ve signed, who is the best candidate to follow in Manaea and Luis Severino’s footsteps and have a strong bounce-back season? — Samuel R.
I’ll go with Frankie Montas as I like what I saw from him down the stretch last season. If he can stay healthy and pitch like he did several years ago with the Athletics, he could be a significant contributor for the Mets next year. I’d be a bit concerned about Clay Holmes as a starter because he really doesn’t have a third pitch and enough to get lefties out in a starting role.
However, I’m never going to bet against Stearns. Re-signing Manaea was imperative. Last season, he impressed after lowering his arm angle and adjusting his arsenal and sequencing; there is no reason to think he can’t repeat his 2024 performance. I thought the three-year, $75 million deal, which is similar to what the Rangers paid Nathan Eovaldi, was a shrewd, market contract. Now the Mets can concentrate on bringing back Pete Alonso as their final major move of the offseason. His market has shrunk, which should help them get a deal done sooner rather than later.
Will Nolan Arenado still be a Cardinal on Opening Day? (Tim Nwachukwu / Getty Images)
Cardinals fan here. I know that the (potential) return in a trade of Arenado will be limited, but what’s the best-case scenario for St. Louis? — Jeremy K.
Addition by subtraction has to be the goal to open up third base for Nolan Gorman or Jordan Walker — whichever one the Cardinals view as the best long-term play there. Financially, whatever they can get the other team to absorb would be huge, so really any type of prospect return would make sense. The Athletic’s Katie Woo and Chandler Rome reported that Arenado, who has a no-trade clause, nixed a possible deal with the Astros that, if approved, would have seen St. Louis pay roughly $5 million for each of the three years remaining on his contract with Houston footing the rest of the bill (approximately $45 million). The Cardinals might have to keep Arenado for the first half of the season and hope he plays better, then try to get more for him in a trade in July.
Do the Blue Jays “sell” Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette if they fail to sign one of the top 10 remaining free agents? What would the return look like considering they’re one-year rentals? — Jack H.
The Blue Jays have really misplayed their hand with Guerrero and Bichette; they should have either extended them two years ago or traded them by this point. Now they’re both one-year rentals, as you point out, with diminished trade value. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal recently reported that the Jays are in talks with Guerrero about a long-term extension and fielding interest for Bichette, so we’ll see if either of those avenues lead anywhere. If the Blue Jays were to trade Guerrero, I don’t think they’d get a strong return in line with what the Padres received for Soto from the Yankees a year ago, but they could still land a top-three prospect and a top-10 prospect for the slugger, I would guess, while a Bichette trade could bring back two top-10 prospects.
GO DEEPER
MLB notes: The latest on Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and the Blue Jays’ offseason
What are the Blue Jays waiting for? They need relievers, a right-handed power bat and a starter to knock Yariel Rodríguez to the bullpen. I am a huge fan of Bregman as the bat and Burnes as the pitcher. It would make everything fit so nicely. — Josh
The Blue Jays’ best moves right now would be to sign Anthony Santander and Alex Bregman, or Bregman and Burnes, or Santander and Burnes, then just try to contend this year and hope it helps them re-sign Bichette and Guerrero, even if that’s next offseason on the open market. Their farm system can’t help much in the short term and they have little to trade so playing checkbook baseball is the only way out of this mess.
After landing Christian Walker, the Astros are unlikely to re-sign Alex Bregman. (Troy Taormina / Imagn Images)
Hi, Jim. Best guess where Santander and Bregman will sign? — Rick G.
It’s just a guess, but I’ll go with the Blue Jays for Santander and the Red Sox for Bregman.
GO DEEPER
Signing Christian Walker signals an end to the Alex Bregman era in Houston
Do you expect Alex Anthopoulos and the Braves to make any significant moves this winter? — No name listed
I don’t see the Braves making any huge moves, although they would like to improve their rotation after losing both Max Fried and Charlie Morton to free agency. (It’s unclear where the 41-year-old Morton will land.) In addition, Anthopoulos is always looking to add bullpen depth.
Who’s driving the low-budget, ultra-conservative plan for the Tigers? Is the owner hesitant to spend or is (the front office) afraid to take any risks when it comes to trades involving prospects? This offseason has been incredibly disappointing for a team that finished strong with arguably the best pitcher on the planet. — Dave. H.
I think you have to give it time. The Tigers have been pursuing Bregman and Jack Flaherty, among others, and several top free agents haven’t signed yet. The market is still robust. Remember, it’s not important when you make moves; it’s just important that you do make moves.
Guardians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti (said) the Andrés Giménez trade may allow them to reinvest some of that money in the roster. Do you expect them to do that? If so, will it be more likely through an external addition or extending someone currently on the roster like Steven Kwan or Tanner Bibee? — Kyle F.
Trading Giménez gave the Guardians some financial flexibility, which they used in the short term to re-sign Shane Bieber and bring back Carlos Santana for a third stint with the club. The most important savings are in future years. The Guardians have had a solid offseason so far with trade for Luis Ortiz and the addition of Bieber. They traded away the big bat of Josh Naylor, who is projected by MLB Trade Rumors to make $12 million in arbitration and will be eligible for free agency after next season. I still think they could use an upgrade in right field with 25-30 home run power.
The Rays need another outfield bat and I would love another catcher (a near-ready prospect, like one from the Dodgers’ stable). What do you think the Rays do the rest of the offseason? — Gatorgolfer2436
The Rays should target Dodgers prospect Dalton Rushing, but I don’t see how they would match up with Los Angeles in that type of deal. I don’t see any needle-moving moves for Tampa Bay the rest of this offseason. I think they’re more focused on developing the players on their roster than adding to it.
New Reds catcher Jose Trevino won the 2022 AL Platinum Glove. (Andrew Dieb / Imagn Images)
Why did Reds give up their best 2024 reliever for a backup catcher? — John S.
Reds manager Terry Francona told me at the Winter Meetings that it was imperative to get another catcher not just to back up Tyler Stephenson, but also who could start if he’s injured. Francona wanted another catcher who would be excellent at calling a game and pitch framing — Jose Trevino, whom they acquired from the Yankees for reliever Fernando Cruz and catcher Alex Jackson, checks those boxes. Losing Cruz was a steep price to pay; his nasty split-finger will be missed. But you have to give up something to get something and to me it looked like a fair deal for both sides.
It’s all fun and games this time of the year for the big-swinging, deep-pocketed clubs, but (not so much) for those of us rooting for a team like the Twins (with a tight payroll). What could the Twins realistically get back for trading say, Chris Paddack ($7.5 million salary in 2025) or Christian Vázquez ($10 million), guys who would unload some money? Minimal prospects or a bucket of baseballs? — Thomas J.
Minimal prospects, which is better than a bucket of baseballs, which right now is valued at $209.95.
What are your thoughts on the Orioles leaning on what they have (in the rotation and instead) focusing on bolstering the pen? Perhaps a trade of Ryan Mountcastle and Heston Kjerstad for Mason Miller? That would allow for Félix Bautista (returning from Tommy John surgery) to slowly ramp up throughout the season, then Miller could transition to a starting role in 2026? — Amos H.
The Athletics have zero interest in trading Miller, but I would love that trade idea from the Orioles’ vantage point. I’d still like to see them bring back Burnes or try to make a trade for one of the Mariners’ starting pitchers.
The Mariners should ask Toronto what it would take to get Bichette to come over and play second base for them. I think as long as Bichette is healthy, he will have no problem bouncing back to the great hitter he was in 2021-23. What do you think it would take on Seattle’s end to make that trade for Bichette? — Ignorantso B.
The Mariners are willing to trade some of their top prospects for a major-league-ready first- or third-base bat, so Toronto might be able to acquire either Colt Emerson, 19, or Cole Young, 21, for Bichette, which they should consider given that he’s under contract for only one more year. Bichette would play third base for Seattle.
Who’s the player we’re not talking about now but will be the big wow story (e.g., Brent Rooker, Jurickson Profar, Shota Imanaga, Seth Lugo, etc.) at the All-Star break? — Jake M.
The wow story around the 2025 All-Star break will be the Blue Jays trading Vlad Jr. Everyone will look at the light return and wonder why they didn’t do it two years earlier when they would have landed a game-changing return, like the Nationals did when they dealt Soto to the Padres in 2022.
What would it take for the Pirates to acquire Wilyer Abreu? Would the Red Sox have any interest in catcher/outfielder Henry Davis? Include righty Braxton Ashcraft to sweeten the deal? — George M.
If you want Abreu, then the Red Sox would want Jared Jones in return — and that’s not happening. However, how about Abreu to the Pirates for righty Bubba Chandler?
Trade proposal: Royals trade RHP Carlos Hernández to the Dodgers for outfielder James Outman. K.C. gets a left-handed bat and defensive upgrade, while Dodgers land a hard-throwing reliever with a few years of control. Who says no? — Booten C.
That’s a fair trade in theory, but I think the Royals say no because they have similar outfielders and need to retain the relievers they have and try to add to the pen, not subtract.
What would it take for the Cubs to acquire Mason Miller from the Athletics? — William “Bill” J.
Again, the Athletics are not trading Miller. But a package of right-hander Cade Horton, outfielder Owen Caissie and shortstop Derniche Valdez would certainly make them pause and consider it.
Silence is not golden for a free agent like Anthony Rizzo. Any buzz on him? — Michael G.
Rizzo is 35 years old and batted .228 last season with an 81 OPS+. Age and decline have arrived. However, he’s a strong clubhouse presence and if he’ll accept a backup role, he might be able to hook on with a team, but I’d guess he’ll have to wait well into January before he gets an offer.
Wouldn’t a salary cap be the best thing for the players because it would force teams who keep a lower payroll to spend money (and also create more competitive balance)? A salary cap where teams had to spend a certain amount guaranteed would help (more of) the players, would it not? — Noah E.
I have always been a proponent for a salary cap that would include a floor and a ceiling, but it’s a concept that has historically been a non-starter for the MLB Players Association. Here’s a recent piece from The Athletic’s Evan Drellich on a potential battle over a salary cap for the next collective bargaining agreement.
If you could change one thing about the game to make it stronger/better, what would it be? Salary cap? Floor? Automated strike zone? Something else? — Greg P.
I’ll go with geographic realignment that would include expansion to the cities of Nashville and either Salt Lake City or Charlotte and allow for eight divisions with four teams in each. Here’s a past article I wrote on geographic realignment.
Jim, curious if you are hearing anything about the seemingly sorry state of the center field position across the sport and if there are any creative solutions about how teams might handle CF, either short term or developmentally. It just doesn’t seem like there are many consistently healthy true center fielders who can hit. To the extent you think that’s true, is it on the radars of general managers as a league-wide concern? — Lex S.
Baseball can be cyclical in terms of strengths at different positions. I think last season featured some positive development at the center field position, including youngsters like Jackson Merrill of the Padres, Ceddanne Rafaela of the Red Sox and Brenton Doyle of the Rockies. Remember, Judge played center field last year for the AL champion Yankees and Mariners center fielder Julio Rodríguez is a superstar despite his subpar season.
(Top photo of Roki Sasaki in 2023: Eric Espada / Getty Images)
