Late Sunday night and Monday morning brought a flurry of free-agent signings. We also had a trade on Sunday, with the Washington Nationals picking up a first baseman. A look at all of these moves below:
Mets bring back Sean Manaea on three-year deal
The Mets have been playing in the shallow end of the free-agent pitching market all offseason, but on Monday they finally dove all the way in, re-signing left-hander Sean Manaea, who was one of the best pitchers in the NL after he changed his arm slot in July, to a three-year, $75 million deal.
If Manaea stays healthy for even 60 starts over the course of this deal, he’ll probably produce enough to make this a good investment for the Mets — more so if he delivers in 2025 the way he did in the second half of 2024, as the Mets are clearly going for the division title and have every reason to think they can make another deep run into October.
Just after the All-Star break, Manaea dropped his arm slot to give him a Chris Sale-like arm action. From July 30 through the end of the season, he made 12 starts, throwing 75 2/3 innings with 83 strikeouts, 18 walks, and a 3.05 ERA/3.35 FIP. Max Fried threw 174 innings with a 3.33 FIP last year, and that was worth 3.4 fWAR and an eight-year contract from the Yankees. Ordinarily, I wouldn’t be so willing to extrapolate from a small sample, but there’s a tangible reason to believe second-half Manaea was a different pitcher from first-half Manaea, and thus that we should consider his second-half numbers far more heavily in projecting forward.
I’ll be most interested to see if Manaea continues to dominate right-handed batters with a delivery that seems to serve the ball up to them on a platter, even though he only threw his changeup 13.2 percent of the time to righties after he dropped his slot. Going sinker-sweeper to right-handers was good enough, and while it’s unusual for a low-slot pitcher to have that much success against hitters on the other side without a specific pitch for them like a changeup or splitter, it’s not impossible. He did have some luck there, allowing a .189 BABIP to righties in that same time span, but also punched out 26.6 percent of them (not literally, that would be battery) and his hard-hit rate to righties was just 33.1 percent.
I’m reasonably bullish that he’ll keep righties in check enough to continue to be an above-average starter, and I’m just as reasonably bullish that he’ll be good for at least 25 starts this year given his track record of durability over the last five seasons.
The Mets really needed to bring Manaea back, and they need him to take some innings. Their rotation around him comprises a reliever they’re converting to the rotation (Clay Holmes), a starter who missed most of the 2024 regular season (Kodai Senga), a starter who just made 30 starts in a season for the second time in his seven years as a full-time big leaguer (Frankie Montas), and a starter who’s never topped 121 innings in a season in the majors (David Peterson).
The Mets also have Paul Blackburn and just signed Griffin Canning, so they have seven starters on paper, and can probably work through some of these guys getting hurt or dealing with innings limits (Holmes and Senga in particular), but they didn’t have anyone as likely as Manaea to be an above-average starter this year.
This can be a league-average rotation, and with their offense — comfortably above the NL median last year and likely to be better this year with Juan Soto — that puts them in line for 90+ wins.
Red Sox add Walker Buehler on a one-year deal
The Red Sox already traded for their ace in Garrett Crochet, and now they’ve signed a guy who was an ace, briefly, before his second Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2023 season. Walker Buehler signed with Boston for one year and $21.05 million, a bet that the former Dodger would bounce back at least partway to his pre-second-TJ form.
Buehler missed nearly two seasons after Tommy John surgery and struggled in the 2024 regular season, but came up big in the postseason. (Harry How / Getty Images)
Buehler threw 207 innings in 2021 and produced a 7.1 bWAR/5.6 fWAR season, then threw 18 1/3 more innings in four postseason starts, but broke down after 12 outings in 2022 and didn’t return for 23 months. When he did, he wasn’t the same guy in velocity or command, and he posted a 5.38 ERA and -1.3 bWAR. He also missed additional time with inflammation in his hip, which I’m assuming exacerbated any problems already in place.
He still sat 95 even in a down year, and there’s enough of a curveball and cutter to roll the dice on him being better after another offseason and more time after the surgery. The first year back from TJ isn’t always pretty, and the Red Sox seem to be thinking the same thing.
Even at that dollar figure, this is a smart gamble for Boston, who already have Crochet and Tanner Houck as their 1-2 and a possible return from Lucas Giolito. A big return to form from Buehler might give them a rotation to rival Seattle’s for the best in the American League.
Rangers trade Nathaniel Lowe but add Joc Pederson on a two-year deal
Joc Pederson was a star against right-handed pitchers again last year, hitting .281/.392/.531 with the platoon advantage. His wRC+ against righties was 154, tied for 11th in the majors with Marcell Ozuna, so for any team that has left-handed options on the roster, he’s a pretty immediate boost.
Pederson helps the Rangers, although I think they have a lot of different ways to deploy him depending on the health and performance of some of their other bats. He only DH’d in 2024, and was below-average on defense by OAA in 2022 and 2023, so I assume he’ll be the primary DH for Texas and play the outfield sparingly based on matchups.
The Rangers have now added two corner bats in Pederson and Jake Burger, which on paper gives them a surplus across the outfield, first base, and DH spots. One obvious concern is the health of Evan Carter, who missed the last four months of 2024 with a stress reaction in his lower back, an injury that comes from overuse or excessive repetition and is a little disturbing when it happens in someone so young.
Another is Adolis García’s bat. After his big breakout in the Rangers’ 2023 World Series-winning year, García cratered in 2024, generating 0.3 bWAR/-0.2 fWAR, as he got destroyed by good velocity and was an atrocious defender. A 31-year-old hitter whiffing on 31 percent of fastballs is terrifying, and combined with the worst pull rate of his career, it really makes me wonder if he’s done as an everyday player, even off just one year of subpar production.
A third possibility is that they think Carter is fine and can take over centerfield from Leody Taveras, who regressed at the plate last year, albeit not as much as García did. Taveras actually walked at the highest rate of his career, 7.9 percent, and maintained his contact rate, but his hard-hit rate dropped as well, to a career-worst 35.5 percent, bringing his BABIP and ISO down quite a bit from 2023. Any one of these things would be a serious problem for a team with playoff aspirations, and whether the Rangers know one of them is in fact an ongoing issue or are merely setting up contingencies, they’re better off with Pederson in the lineup against righties regardless of which of those guys he’s replacing.
I’m surprised they chose to dump first baseman Nathaniel Lowe even as they’re trying to improve their offense. The Rangers sent Lowe to Washington in exchange for left-handed reliever Robert Garcia, aiding their bullpen but giving up a player whose production has been worth 2.7 to 3.1 fWAR in each of the last three years and will remain severely underpaid at least for this year, and possibly the next two, before he hits free agency.
Lowe ranked ninth in the AL in OBP last year at .361, more than compensating for his fringy power output for the position. Lowe and Corey Seager were the only Rangers with OBPs above .340 last year. Pederson does pick up some of the slack against righties, just at a higher cost in dollars — he’ll probably cost 50 percent more than Lowe this year, depending on what Lowe gets in arbitration.
Would you rather have Pederson and García, or Lowe and another $6 million or so to invest in the bullpen? I’m not sure there’s a right answer here, but the Rangers made their answer clear.
So Burger probably plays first base, Josh Jung mans third if healthy, and Pederson is the DH, while the outfield comprises three of Wyatt Langford, Carter, Tavares and García. That’s a better offense on paper than they had in 2024, but more because of expected improvements or bounce-backs from Langford, Jung, Carter, and Taveras than the new additions.
(Top photo of Manaea: Elsa / Getty Images)
