For years, this spot on the calendar was where people came to Mandel’s Mailbag to vent about whatever BCS/College Football Playoff controversy infuriated them that season. But so far, the first year of the 12-team Playoff has elicited only mild nitpicking. Consider that progress.
(Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.)
Did the Ducks get an absolutely brutal route to the final, or is that just me? It seems like a clear flaw that they have such a brutal path but are the 1 seed. — Asher S.
No question, No. 1 seed Oregon got the tougher side of the bracket. And for that you can blame what I believe to be the only notable flaw in the format: Manipulating the seedings to reward conference champs with byes.
Oregon drew an 8 vs. 9 matchup of Ohio State-Tennessee, but those teams are ranked No. 6 and No. 7 by the committee. If the seedings matched the rankings, the Ducks would get the winner of Indiana–Boise State. Which I’m sure they’d prefer. Then it would be the winner of No. 4 Penn State and No. 5 Notre Dame in the semifinal. Whereas currently they could get No. 3 Texas
Meanwhile, No. 2 Georgia’s three possible semifinal opponents are the No. 6 (Penn State), No. 9 (Boise State) and No. 11 (SMU) teams in the country. That’s bizarre. In the basketball tournament the No. 2 seed would play either the No. 3 (in this case Texas), No. 6 and No. 11 teams.
So not only does this format allow teams ranked well below No. 4, like Boise and Arizona State, to earn a bye, the ripple effect messes with the integrity of the bracket.
I don’t think they should run out and change anything after one season of data, but my guess is the current format doesn’t make it to Year 3, when the new CFP contract begins. But of course, the Big Ten and SEC will try to strong-arm their way to something much worse. Like a 14-team tournament where each of their leagues gets four automatic berths and their champs get the only two byes. This of course would be far more destructive to the CFP’s credibility than whether Boise State is the No. 3 or 4 seed.
GO DEEPER
Ranking all 36 national championship matchup scenarios from most likely to Clemson vs. SMU
So much has been made about the SMU vs. ‘Bama debate, but to me the real head-scratcher has been the seeding of Penn State. It played two good opponents (spare me the home win over Illinois) and lost to both of them — and neither game was on the road! What did PSU actually achieve this year to earn their No. 6 seed that will include opening games against SMU and Boise State? — Adam S.
I’m a Penn State skeptic myself, but here’s the thing: Every point you’re making, you could say the same thing about the other teams in that seed grouping. No. 5 seed Texas and No. 7 seed Notre Dame arguably had the same “best” win, at 8-4 Texas A&M, which, unlike Illinois, finished unranked. (No credible ratings system has Army, which the Irish clobbered, in the same tier as the Aggies.) You could make the case No. 8 seed Ohio State should be above No. 6 Penn State due the Buckeyes’ two top-10 wins and head-to-head victory over the Nittany Lions, but the Buckeyes would essentially suffer no consequences for the Michigan debacle.
It’s not ideal, but unbalanced schedules in the expanded conferences — or in Notre Dame’s case, bad years by teams like USC and Florida State — left us in an unfortunate situation where several of the top contenders didn’t beat many comparable foes.
Case in point: A year ago, the top-five teams in the final CFP rankings — Michigan, Alabama, Washington, Texas and Florida State — went a combined 17-2 against opponents that finished in the Top 25. This year’s top five — Oregon, Georgia, Texas, Penn State and Notre Dame — went 11-6. And Oregon (4-0) and Georgia (4-2) accounted for eight of those 11 wins.
What I’m trying to say is this: There just weren’t many great teams this year. In fact, if last year’s snubbed 13-0 Florida State team was in this year’s field it would probably be the No. 2 seed.
GO DEEPER
In defense of the College Football Playoff’s funky seeding format
In talking with my fellow Georgia fans, some dummies (me) have convinced themselves that Georgia is actually better off with Gunner Stockton over Carson Beck for the Playoff. Their overly optimistic reasoning is that Georgia’s problem all year appeared to be starting games without focus/intensity, and only really turning it on in the second half (see: vs. Alabama and Georgia Tech). With Stockton, the team will rally behind him and have a reason to come out firing on all cylinders from the start. Are these fans crazy or what? — Sam I., Richmond, VA
Be honest. You got this straight from Message Board Geniuses, right? That’s some next-level rationalization.
But yes, people I’ve talked to in and around Georgia seem surprisingly nonplussed about the quarterback situation. They have confidence in Stockton, who handled himself fairly well against Texas up until that brutal interception near the end of regulation. It helps that Kirby Smart and Mike Bobo have three-plus weeks to game-plan around Stockton, who brings a different skill set than Beck. You may see fewer vertical passes but more quarterback runs off zone reads. It helps that Georgia will have a healthy Trevor Etienne, who looked great against Texas, and Nate Frazier as his complement.
In the past, Smart has used bowl practices to get some of his younger players more reps. Don’t be surprised to see contributions on offense from some lesser-used players during the regular season.
It’s a unique situation. On the one hand, losing a talented two-year starter in Beck, who’s won a whole lot of big games, should in theory be a huge loss. On the other hand, he’s not had a great season. His completion percentage dropped from 72.4 percent in 2023 to 64.7 percent this season. His yards per attempt dropped from 9.5 to 7.8. He threw 12 interceptions, including three in each of the Alabama, Texas (the first one) and Florida games. It’s still not ideal to try to ride a first-time starter in Stockton to the national title, but nor does this feel like the Florida State/Jordan Travis situation last year.
Is a CFP home game the worst possible thing that could have happened to Ryan Day? Given the current toxicity in Columbus, as soon as anything goes bad, will the crowd turn on him and the team? Wouldn’t a road game actually have been better for Ohio State? — Joe B.
It could be quite awkward. When the Buckeyes last played at The Shoe they were humiliated by their archrival, pepper sprayed and booed off of the field. Now they’re supposed to turn around three weeks later and pretend that never happened? This team has already been playing tight for much of the season; it could get even more pronounced if things start poorly like against Michigan.
Also, this game is Tennessee’s Super Bowl. It’s the program’s biggest postseason game since winning the 1998 BCS championship. And if the Vols win, they’re going to the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1945! And whereas Day is feeling insane pressure, Josh Heupel is playing with house money. If they lose, oh well, this was still a great season and the future is bright.
Ohio State’s offensive line has its work cut out against James Pearce and Tennessee’s defensive front, but the Buckeyes have more high-end playmakers across the board, and their defense can handle the Vols’ largely one-dimensional offense. If they can focus out the noise – and if Chip Kelly calls a better game than he did against Michigan – Ohio State should be OK. For Day’s sake, it better be.
GO DEEPER
Which College Football Playoff coaches are under the most pressure?
Stew: Aside from the Playoff, what other bowl games are you most excited to watch? — Brian S., Buford, GA
My top five:
1. Alamo Bowl (Dec. 28): Colorado vs. BYU
Deion says Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter are going to play, which would be awesome. Who doesn’t want to see a Shedeur-Jake Retzlaff showdown? KFC vs. Manischewitz.
2. Pop-Tarts Bowl (Dec. 28): Miami vs. Iowa State
Two teams that nearly made the Playoff, capped with the most anticipated moment of bowl season: Which of three flavors will the MVP choose to sacrifice itself to a giant toaster?
3. Holiday Bowl (Dec. 27): Syracuse vs. Washington State
The Holiday Bowl is consistently entertaining, though this ranking is entirely dependent on John Mateer still being Wazzu’s quarterback come bowl time.
4. Citrus Bowl (Dec. 31): South Carolina vs. Illinois
The Gamecocks were playing as well as anyone not named Oregon by the end of the season, and LaNoris Sellers vs. a Big Ten foe should be fun.
5. ReliaQuest Bowl (Dec. 31): Alabama vs. Michigan
I realize this is a sadder version of last year’s Rose Bowl, but I guess I’m a sucker for the brands. Also, it’s amusing this is happening on the same day Boise State plays in a CFP game.
One underreported aspect of this season in the SEC that I think relates to the parity and so many of its teams on the wrong side of the bubble is that nearly the entire league had disappointing QB play. Perhaps the only exception is at Vanderbilt, and they finished 12th. Do you think this is a one-year fluke? Or is there something about the QB position in the SEC that is making the job extremely hard right now? — Sean F., Oak Park, IL
You’re spot on. It’s one thing for a conference to be breaking in a bunch of first-time starting QBs, but this year’s SEC was full of experienced guys — Beck, Alabama’s Jalen Milroe, Texas’s Quinn Ewers, Missouri’s Brady Cook — who just weren’t as good as they were the year before. Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart finished as the first-team All-SEC quarterback. While his season stats were gaudy, he tailed off in his last three games, including the Rebels’ dagger loss at Florida. And then you had a couple of new starters, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier and (more drastically) Oklahoma’s Jackson Arnold, who did not live up to their preseason billing.
Not coincidentally, the SEC did not have a single team reach 30 points per game in conference play. Texas A&M came closest at 29.4. Six teams hit that mark last season, with LSU on top at 42.9. There were at least four in each of the six seasons befor that.
This is the part where SEC fans will insist it’s because their conference is just so good on defense, and yes, it was a strong year in that department. Texas, Tennessee, Ole Miss and South Carolina were among the best in the country, and Georgia was dominant at times. But the SEC has always had strong defenses. They were no match for the likes of Joe Burrow, Bryce Young, Tua Tagovailoa and Jayden Daniels when they came along.
I thought last Saturday’s Georgia-Texas game was a perfect encapsulation of this season in the SEC. It was dramatic, to say the least, and you saw lots of big defensive plays, — but it was also incredibly sloppy. Dropped passes. Interceptions. Penalties. On Georgia’s drive to go up 16-13, it had two fumbles it was fortunate to recover, it had the ball for more than nine minutes, only to end up kicking a field goal.
All of which is why I don’t have much sympathy for Alabama and Ole Miss. It’d be one thing if these were juggernaut teams playing and cannibalizing each other. Not this year. They were talented but flawed teams that couldn’t get out of their own way at times and lost to inferior opponents. Better luck next year.
Do you think the Playoff “bowl” games will be at full attendance? It used to be a situation where if your team made a bowl, it was the last game of the year in a destination where you could have a vacation. Now there are potentially three games to play. I could likely only get away with going to one of them, so why go to the Sugar or Rose Bowl when I could save my money and time to go to the national championship? (And yes, I get the Natty is in Atlanta this year, but the ticket still is expensive.) — Jonathan G, Atlanta
I wonder the same thing, but it’s all a guess right now. It wasn’t long ago I had people writing in speculating the stadiums would be half-full for the first-round games, and here we are, with the get-in price for Indiana-Notre Dame nearly $1,000.
The quarterfinal bowls should be fine, because they’re in their usual New Year’s window, and fans of seeds 1-4 have nearly a month to plan their trips. The Rose Bowl will be sold out, whether it’s Oregon-Ohio State or Oregon-Tennessee. The Sugar Bowl will be overrun by Georgia fans. I’d be more concerned for the Fiesta and Peach Bowls, given Boise State and Arizona State have smaller fan bases, but most of those bowls weren’t selling out for non-CFP New Year’s Six years as it was.
And the national championship game will sell out, unless it’s two schools nowhere near Atlanta. So, Arizona State-Boise State. While later than usual, it’s the same 10-ish day window between the semifinals and championship, and fans have always found a way to make it work.
The round where I have no idea what to expect is the semifinals. The Orange Bowl is on Thursday, Jan. 8, the Cotton on Friday, Jan. 9. Neither a holiday nor a weekend. And you won’t know until a week beforehand if you team is in it. Now, the Cotton Bowl could have Texas, which would take care of that. If it’s Texas-Ohio State, even better. The Orange would probably like to see Notre Dame, with its national fan base, beat Georgia, which has been to Miami two of the past three years.
I’m curious to see how it all plays out. In the meantime, I’m foaming at the mouth for these first-round home games.
One of your recent tweets made a joke about an NIT-style Playoff tournament featuring the next 12 teams out. I think this would be outrageously fun. Is there a possibility of this happening, with current bowl sponsors still playing host to the games? — Trevor K, Portland, Ore.
It would absolutely be incredibly fun. I’m just not sure anyone would play in it. We have guys opting out of a standalone bowl game. What about a consolation tournament in which they may have to play three or four extra games? And why would fans travel to see their stripped-down teams play in the football NIT? You’d have to play them at home, and if you’ve ever watched early NIT games on TV you know the arenas are often half full.
I can think of two possibly more realistic ideas:
1. The conferences and bowls to come together and agree to ditch their traditional partnerships in favor of a fantasy football-style draft. Say, the Citrus, Outback, Gator, Alamo, Holiday and Pop-Tarts bowls draw out of a hat the names of the teams that finished in the next 12 spots, ensuring each of them gets a Top 25 matchup.
2. The Group of 5 leagues plus the remade Pac-12 hold their own 12-team tournament that includes the five champions that didn’t make the CFP plus seven at-large teams.
Neither idea would be an enormous revenue driver, but with TNT and The CW trying to get deeper into the college sports space, you’d have no shortage of potential bidders.
In theory, one could go in person by car and watch three of the four first-round Playoff games — Indiana-Notre Dame on Friday night, SMU-Penn State in the first game Saturday, Tennessee-Ohio State on Saturday night. (You would likely miss the first quarter of the game in Columbus.) If you want to give me the tickets, I’d be glad to go and document this for you. — Daniel B., West Lafayette, Ind.
Sounds amazing. The part I can’t see you pulling off, though, is leaving Beaver Stadium at 3:30 p.m. and getting to the Horseshoe to see much or any of the 8 p.m. game. You’ll need a police escort to whisk you out of Happy Valley, otherwise that’s an hour or two of traffic before you even get to the highway.
There’s only one person who could pull this off: Kirk Herbstreit. Because he’s got that jet. Imagine if he called the Thursday night Amazon game (Broncos-Chargers) in L.A., the Friday night game at Notre Dame, the Saturday Noon game at Penn State and the Saturday 8 p.m. game at Ohio State?
Do it, Kirk. And bring along Daniel.
(Photo: Jeffrey Brown / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
