PHILADELPHIA — When the season began, José Alvarado and Gregory Soto were two of the hardest-throwing lefties in the sport and they were both Phillies. The team always envisioned the tandem as a late-inning neutralizer against the league’s best left-handed hitters. And, in 2024, they thought there was more to unlock.
Neither are sitting in the bullpen right now. The Phillies traded Soto to the Orioles in July when he objected to how he was used. Then, this week, Alvarado left the team to tend to what the Phillies described as “a personal matter.” The club does not know when he will return. There are 30 more games for the Phillies to arrange their bullpen pieces going into October and, in that time, they will have to answer a nagging question.
How will they beat the opponent’s best lefty hitters late in games?
“I think we’re OK,” Phillies manager Rob Thomson said. “I really do.”
Entering Tuesday’s games, lefty hitters had a .458 slugging percentage against Phillies relievers. That was the highest mark in baseball. It is 71 points higher than last season. Alvarado, without question, has been the club’s most effective reliever against lefties. He’s held them to a .131/.185/.246 line.
But no one knows how long Alvarado will be gone. “I have no idea,” Thomson said. “No idea.” The lefty abruptly left the team Monday afternoon. Alvarado, shortly after 3 p.m., went into Thomson’s office. He emerged after a long meeting, changed out of workout gear and into his street clothes, then walked out of the clubhouse as his teammates prepared for batting practice.
That prompted a closed-door meeting between the club’s top executives, who had come downstairs. The Phillies scrambled to make a transaction, which required them to obtain league approval to place Alvarado on the restricted list. A player on that list is no longer mandated to receive compensation; the Phillies declined to comment on whether they were still paying Alvarado.
Major League Baseball has several methods to excuse a player while paying him, including a bereavement/family medical emergency list. The Phillies declined to comment on why Alvarado went on the restricted list. Alvarado’s agents declined to comment Tuesday.
Thomson said he expected Alvarado back this season.
In 2019, while with the Tampa Bay Rays, Alvarado went on the family emergency list for a week, then was transferred to the restricted list. He missed a month of action.
José Alvarado has averaged 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings, down from 13.9 per nine last season. (Orlando Ramirez / USA Today)
This season, on the mound, it’s often been a struggle for Alvarado. He is striking out batters at a lower rate than ever before. His 13.9 percent year-to-year decline in strikeout rate is the largest in the majors. The Phillies moved him down the bullpen depth chart into lower-leverage situations.
But the Phillies need Alvarado because he has remained dominant against lefties. His .185 on-base percentage against lefties is fourth-lowest among National League relievers. The Phillies plan to deploy him in October as they have in previous postseasons — sometime in the middle of a game when the opponent’s best lefties are due to hit. They’ll need him healthy and confident to do that.
This is a significant role to fill, given how other National League contenders have constructed their rosters. The Dodgers have Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Gavin Lux. The Padres have Luis Arraez, Jake Cronenworth and Jackson Merrill. The Diamondbacks have Corbin Carroll, Joc Pederson and Jake McCarthy. The Braves have Matt Olson.
The Phillies like Matt Strahm as a do-it-all lefty reliever who specializes in inheriting jams. Righties have a .445 OPS against Strahm this season, but lefties have logged a .701 OPS. Tanner Banks came over in a trade from the hapless White Sox; the Phillies expected to use Banks as a middle reliever.
The initial returns are uneven. Lefties are 7-for-20 with three extra-base hits against Banks since he joined the Phillies. In recent outings, Banks has worn a PitchCom device on his glove. He has called some of his own pitches — not as a slight against J.T. Realmuto, but as a way to accelerate the acclimation process. Banks said he’ll often go against scouting reports, especially against lefties. The PitchCom back-and-forth between Banks and Realmuto allows for two-way communication. Banks might want a certain pitch and Realmuto chimes in with a location.
“Banks is going to have to take down a little bit bigger role,” Thomson said.
The Phillies used him to finish Tuesday’s 5-0 win over Houston because the Astros had two lefties scheduled to hit. The Astros pinch hit for both of them. Banks retired the side on nine pitches.
Tanner Banks has a 2.84 ERA in 11 appearances since joining the Phillies. (Bill Streicher / USA Today)
Thomson knows who he’ll trust in October — Carlos Estévez, Jeff Hoffman, Orion Kerkering and Strahm. They’ll need at least one more reliever and probably another. The rest of the current bullpen is subject to change; the Phillies can add another pitcher on Sunday when rosters expand. They have nudged José Ruiz into bigger spots, but he profiles more as a low-leverage righty. Max Lazar, a 25-year-old rookie righty, has yet to allow a run in six appearances. He held lefties to a .302 OPS in the minors this season. He throws from an uncommon over-the-top arm slot that has fooled hitters on their first look at Lazar. He is interesting.
As of now, Thomson trusts Kerkering as a righty against lefty hitters. Lefties have a .765 OPS — 269 points higher than righties — against Kerkering this season.
“I look at it like Kerkering is kind of a lefty too because he’s got good splits against lefties,” Thomson said. “So really we still have three lefties in the pen in my mind.”
Some of the club’s bullpen numbers against lefty hitters are skewed; a chunk of the damage was allowed by Ruiz, Yunior Marte, Michael Mercado, Connor Brogdon, and even backup catcher Garrett Stubbs, who has made three relief appearances. Mercado is back in the majors as Alvarado’s roster replacement.
The Phillies could change the bullpen mix with more frequency in September as they audition different arms. Maybe someone pitches their way into the October plan, maybe not.
“They’ve done a good job at adding some guys (at Triple A),” Thomson said. “I’m not going to throw any names out, but I think we have a lot of options.”
But none of the options in the minors are left-handed. It’s why the Phillies will wait for Alvarado, hope whatever issue he’s facing is soon solved, and then everyone can look toward October.
(Top photo of José Alvarado after he walked in a run against the Braves last week: Mike Stewart / Associated Press)
