LOS ANGELES — The vision looked so clear. On the first day of the early signing period just weeks after Lincoln Riley took over at USC, the Trojans signed four-star safety Zion Branch, four-star running back Raleek Brown and five-star corner Domani Jackson to headline their 2022 recruiting class. Three weeks later, they added four-star wideout C.J. Williams to that group. During that time, USC also landed a commitment from five-star Class of 2023 receiver Zachariah Branch.
In a little more than a month on the job, Riley signed or received commitments from seven top-100 prospects in the 2022 and 2023 cycles. USC looked poised to regain its spot as the dominant recruiting power on the West Coast after years of watching too many elite players leave the footprint for the SEC or other national powers. Riley contributed to that exodus with some recruiting victories in California while he was Oklahoma’s coach.
“I always remember the sense, not just in this state but this part of the country, that when SC was good, it was going to be tough to beat,” Riley said that day. “And when SC wasn’t good, you were going to maybe have a chance to sign kids that deep down really wanted to go to SC …
“I still feel that deep down the majority of players around here, they want to play at USC. But the flip side of it is, USC has to give them a reason to want to follow through with that.”
On Tuesday, exactly three years to the date of that press conference, Zachariah and Zion Branch announced their intention to enter the transfer portal. The Branch brothers are just two of what’s becoming a long list of former blue-chip prospects who have transferred out of the program over the past year — 11 total from the 2022, 2023 and 2024 cycles.
God’s Plan pic.twitter.com/nK8n2QIuvG
— Zachariah “ease” Branch (@zachariahb03) December 17, 2024
As the trend continues, it’s worth looking back at Riley’s words:
What reason is USC giving elite prospects to play for the Trojans?
Riley had a great first season in Los Angeles. The Trojans won 11 games and nearly made the College Football Playoff. Their quarterback, Caleb Williams, won the Heisman Trophy. USC was cool again.
The follow-up has been disastrous. The Trojans went 8-5 in 2023 and squandered Williams’ final college season. The defense played a large role in that and Riley made the necessary staff changes to improve that side of the ball in 2024. It didn’t mean much, though, because USC regressed offensively and was shockingly bad in late-game situations. The Trojans lost five games by seven points or less and head into the Las Vegas Bowl needing a win to avoid a losing record.
With a 14-11 mark over the past two years, Riley and his staff can’t sell USC as a program on an upward trajectory — though they’ll surely try.
If the Trojans can’t highlight on-field success, what about development? That, too, has been lacking.
Zachariah Branch is quite a significant name to enter the transfer portal — a former five-star prospect who was a Freshman All-American in 2023. But if anyone watched USC closely in 2024, they could tell you that, despite the buzz he generates, Branch was a disappointment as a receiver and a returner, and he has a lot of work to do before he becomes a polished product.
So maybe Branch isn’t a huge loss from a pure football standpoint. But symbolically, his departure is meaningful. Riley has signed six five-star prospects in his four recruiting cycles as the Trojans head coach. Two are part of the 2025 class, defensive lineman Jahkeem Stewart and quarterback Husan Longstreet. They haven’t even gone through a practice yet, so let’s forget about them for a moment.
The other four transferred out of the program within two years of enrolling — Jackson (2022 class), Branch (2023), quarterback Malachi Nelson (2023) and receiver Duce Robinson (2023).
A common refrain among USC’s fans is to point out that Jackson didn’t perform that well in 2023 despite the fact he was given ample opportunity or that Nelson transferred to Boise State and didn’t win the starting job there or that Branch and Robinson didn’t play up to their five-star status.
There’s truth in that, but it doesn’t excuse a zero percent success rate among your five-star prospects. For one, Riley hasn’t recruited at an elite enough level to put the program in a place where it can shrug off five-star misses. He’s signed one top-10 class. That was the 2023 cycle, and four of the six highest-rated signees have already transferred out.
Riley and his staff are also the ones making these evaluations. If these players were overrated as recruits, nobody forced USC to sign them. The Trojans signed them because they thought they were good enough. And if they were good enough, USC simply didn’t do a good job of developing them. The Trojans have had plenty of missed evaluations in the transfer market as well, which doesn’t help the argument.
It’s bad all around and a glaring red flag.
If the on-field product and development are question marks, how does USC stand NIL-wise? The Trojans aren’t Oregon, Texas or Ohio State in that department, but they’re doing well enough. They’ve been aggressive with NIL in cases — they wouldn’t have been able to sign Stewart or Longstreet in the 2025 cycle if that weren’t the case — but they’ve been pretty selective about how aggressive they’re willing to be. That might benefit locker room culture, but the tradeoff is that it can leave the program lacking in high-end talent.
To be fair to Riley, he stepped into a bad situation that was always going to require some patience. But he’s headed into Year 4, and unless there’s a dramatic infusion of talent through the transfer portal over the next few weeks, chances seem pretty high that USC’s roster will be less talented in Riley’s fourth season than it was in his third. Meanwhile, Oregon, Ohio State and Michigan continue to bolster their rosters.
After USC lost to Notre Dame three weeks ago to put the finishing touches on another underwhelming regular season, it seemed pretty clear the program lacked a central identity.
The Trojans are in a rut. There’s no other way to put it. And if USC can’t properly evaluate, land, develop and retain elite talent, then what hope is there that things will get better?
That’s a sobering spot to be in considering how bright the future looked three years ago.
(Photo of Lincoln Riley: Gary A. Vasquez / Imagn Images)
