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Welcome back to Prime Tire, where we’re wondering if the new all-access Mercedes book includes a chapter interrogating George Russell about that time he thought the sweat on his visor was rain. Support investigative journalism, folks!
We’ve got some ideas about how Formula One’s heated constructors’ championship might play out. I’m Patrick, and Madeline Coleman will be along shortly. Let’s get to it.
Three constructors’ title scenarios
Briefly, let’s reset. There are three grands prix, one sprint race left, and one fastest lap point in each grand prix. (Full schedule here.)
So, there are 140 points left to dole out to teams. The top three in the constructors’ standings are:
1. McLaren — 593
2. Ferrari — 557
3. Red Bull — 544
Here are three(ish) ways the constructors’ championship could unfold.
Scenario #1: McLaren seals it early
McLaren has the upper hand, but their margin for error is slim. A solid strategy focused on minimizing risks and maintaining consistent scoring between both drivers should be enough to secure the championship. Luckily, McLaren’s car has been one of the most track-versatile on the grid this season.
Scoring a couple of podiums across the final three race weekends should lock it up. In this scenario, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri finish on the Las Vegas podium and repeat their São Paulo sprint 1-2 finish in the Qatar sprint. Max Verstappen’s resurgence keeps the Ferraris off both podiums, but Sergio Pérez picks up zero points for Red Bull. That drag is enough to let McLaren take the title before Abu Dhabi.
Scenario #2: McLaren falters
Aggression is only necessary if Ferrari or Red Bull make significant gains. In this scenario, they do just that. McLaren loses ground due to further strategy paralysis or costly scuffles with Verstappen. A repeat of Austin, where the Ferraris finished 1-2 as Verstappen made life miserable for Norris behind, is still in play in any of these races. The easiest way for McLaren to clinch the title is to win grands prix — even one! I’m not sure that’s a given after Austin, Mexico City, and São Paulo. Momentum has swung.
Scenario #2-A: Ferrari maximizes points
If Ferrari gets three 1-2 finishes, also gets every fastest lap and dominates the sprints, it could overtake McLaren. Not sure that happens. But Ferrari doesn’t need to do that much to make this title fight a toss-up.
PICTURED: A metaphor for the final three weekends of the F1 constructors’ championship. (Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports)
One race could turn the tide. Let’s say McLaren leaves Las Vegas with 10 more points (P5 and P8) and Ferrari leaves with 44 (P1 and P2, plus fastest lap). The gap at the top would be two points, putting Qatar and Abu Dhabi in play as pivotal races. So, as I said, McLaren’s margin for error is razor-thin, and Ferrari is well-placed to pounce if it can consistently string together near-perfect results. (There are recent blueprints.)
Scenario #2-B: No stopping Red Bull
The elements of this scenario have played out for almost two years now:
- Verstappen crushes the competition (a-la São Paulo, a-la all of 2023).
- Crucially, Pérez re-finds his top-five form in these final three races.
- McLaren stumbles (again) in strategy and detail execution.
- Ferrari’s performance suddenly, inexplicably, deteriorates to P5ish levels for one or two races.
These things seem to happen again and again every few months. So I don’t have to think too hard to imagine Red Bull accumulating 130 points (three wins, sprint win and fastest laps) in these final weekends to win the title. Not after last year, and not after São Paulo. *squints* See, I just did it. Only used, like, four of my 30 brain cells.
GO DEEPER
How Max Verstappen can win the drivers’ championship in Las Vegas and light up F1’s glitziest race
Scenario #3: Chaos reigns in Abu Dhabi
McLaren enters the last race as the heavy favorite to clinch the title, but Norris scraps with Verstappen, and both cars retire (shades of Austria). Piastri gets a puncture on the opening lap. Red Bull replaces Pérez mid-race with Daniel Ricciardo. Leclerc and Sainz, in their final race as teammates, forget even to start the race because they’re having one last coffee together. All six drivers are fined 200 points for swearing at some point in their lives.
Mercedes wins the title.
Any way you slice it, this sets up for a rare finish.
How this season’s #F1 constructors standings with three races left compares with previous years…
Buckle up — we’re set for the closest finish since 2010 🎇 pic.twitter.com/nWpZIGHJby
— The Athletic Motorsports (@TheAthleticAUTO) November 13, 2024
Inside the Paddock with Madeline Coleman
Some updates on Williams
Happy last non-race weekend of the F1 2024 season, y’all. It’s been a rollercoaster ride this year, and we’re not done yet. One more triple-header, one more sprint race, two titles up for grabs, and plenty of news.
The latest news rumblings have been around Williams:
- Rumors have been circulating that the Grove-based team may not have its cars ready for the Las Vegas GP. Williams sustained three separate crashes across the Sao Paulo GP weekend, and Alex Albon’s car couldn’t be repaired in time for him to compete in the grand prix. But these are just rumors. The Athletic spoke with Williams, and it is business as usual for the team as the paddock prepares for the Las Vegas GP.
- We also have confirmation of when Carlos Sainz will make his debut with the team. Williams announced Friday that the Spaniard “will drive the FW46 for the first time” as he will join the team for the end-of-season test in Abu Dhabi. Not only will it be Sainz’s first taste of the machinery, but the opportunity “will provide a valuable chance for Carlos to begin integrating into his new team environment.”
F1 heads back to Sin City
The racing has been so good this year that the second Las Vegas Grand Prix kind of snuck up on us. The Athletic will have four reporters on the ground and week-long coverage of the season’s biggest American race.
Yesterday, the Las Vegas Grand Prix announced it’s anticipating 300,000 attendees across the race weekend based on ticket sales and booking data. It also claimed the free on-site fan festival is already fully booked on Friday and Saturday.
In the meantime, get caught up on what’s new at F1’s newest grand prix:
- ⛔️ F1 says it’s “quite comfortable” without a Vegas sprint race.
- ⛸️ There will be a VIP ice rink. Yes. You read that right.
- ⏰ The race will once again start at 1 a.m. ET. Here’s why.
- 🚗 As for traffic and construction, F1 officials predicted a smoother build-up than last year. We’ll find out from locals next week if that turned out to be true.
- 📕 And, finally, good time to read Luke Smith’s story about the “playbook” the organizers are following in year two.
Outside the Points
A day after the FIA announced that the F1’s race director had left his role, reports indicated that compliance officer Paolo Basarri was no longer at the federation. Basarri was the official who compiled a report into allegations that FIA president Mohammed Ben Sulayem interfered in the operations of two races in 2023. (Ben Sulayem was later cleared.)
Greg Maffei, the CEO of F1 owner Liberty Media, is leaving when his contract expires at the end of the year. Yesterday, he said he doesn’t think there is “any plan to sell” F1.
Finally, the Monaco Grand Prix stays on the calendar for the next six years with a new contract. I know you were all so worried!
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