The college football world was hoping for a March Madness type of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the four first-round matchups underwhelmed, providing plenty of time for holiday shopping. Favorites went a perfect 4-0 against the spread, including three fairly non-competitive performances by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee.
Will the next batch of games be more competitive? Sportsbooks and the public don’t seem to think so. At least in two cases.
Both Penn State–Boise State and Texas–Arizona State feature double-digit spreads favoring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has been an especially popular pick with the public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in terms of total dollars as of Monday afternoon.
“All the money is coming in on Texas,” Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text message to The Athletic. “We need Arizona State to cover +13.5.”
The enthusiasm for the Longhorns extends to the futures market as well. Remember that massive $1.5 million wager on Texas to win it all at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns’ opponent, Arizona State — the biggest underdog among the College Football quarterfinal matchups — is getting the most love from sharp bettors. The Athletic talked to several bookmakers who had taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State – which had gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books against No. 5 Texas – to push the line down to -12.5 or -12.
John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he received a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a “very respected player.”
Even though respected money has come in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do just that, as public bettors are piling on Texas.
“We would love to see ASU cover, and then Texas win the game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book,” Magee added.
While the Texas game will be huge for the books, it isn’t the only game in town. We chatted with multiple bookmakers to break down where the betting action is on the other three College Football quarterfinal matchups.
No. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
This game opened Penn State -10.5 at most sportsbooks and has crept up slightly to a consensus of -11. Betting on the spread is fairly split at most sportsbooks. The total dollars wagered varies by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the money at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but only 42% of the money at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is currently the second most popular CFP wager in terms of total tickets at BetMGM books.
“We opened Penn State -10.5 and are sitting on Penn State -11,” Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The Athletic. “I wouldn’t be surprised if this line creeps up a little bit more before kickoff, but I currently welcome any Boise State money.”
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Perhaps most surprising to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog against No. 8 Ohio State. These teams met back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home favorite.
So why is OSU favored?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic spoke with before the CFP first round had Ohio State atop their power ratings, and the lookahead lines for this hypothetical matchup were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker mentioned that Ohio State playing up to its power rating in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also shaped his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point favorite (depending on the sportsbook) in this game before respected money pushed it to the current line of -2.5. A slightly higher majority of wagers at several sportsbooks, roughly 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while close to 60% of the money has come in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle game of the four come kickoff.
“We did take some respected money at -1.5, quickly went to -2.5 where it’s stayed,” Gable said. “It’s decent two-way action at that number right now. The total has gone up three points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has been the biggest move of any of the totals. Money has all been on the over so far.”
The betting data shows 92% of the bets and 97% of the money at BetMGM is on the game to go over the total.
Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime Sports, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that caters to sharp bettors, told The Athletic that “Ohio State opened as a 1-point favorite, and immediately our Ohio bettors thought we were too low. Our opening price of Ohio State -1 has been driven up to -2.5 and the total from 52 to 55.”
He did note, though, that the book had seen significant buyback at the current line of Ohio State -2.5 and that 52% of the total dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
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The favorite flipped in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point favorite and is currently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
What caused the line flip? Simply put, the betting action.
Even though Georgia’s starting QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been replaced by relative unknown Gunner Stockton, bettors are gravitating toward the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular against the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by total dollars wagered), and it has been “one-way traffic on Georgia,” according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at multiple sportsbooks.
Notre Dame has been included in a lot of parlays at The Borgata, Gable noted, but he was receiving “fairly even action so far” and didn’t expect there to be too big of a bottom-line impact on the game unless the first three favorites all won.
Prime Sports opened the game at a pick-em before moving to Georgia -2. But the number is back to its current line of Georgia -1.
“Smart money is behind Notre Dame here,” Brennan said.
(Photo of Quinn Ewers: Tim Warner / Getty Images)
