Big 12 football tiers: Wide-open conference race has 6 College Football Playoff contenders

One of the most consistent programs in the country, Kansas State followed up 2022’s Big 12 championship and Sugar Bowl appearance with a 9-4 season, including a delicious Pop-Tarts Bowl win. Starting quarterback Will Howard transferred to Ohio State, but rising star QB Avery Johnson was ready to take over. Offensive coordinator Collin Klein left for the same job at Texas A&M, so head coach Chris Klieman promoted offensive line coach Conor Riley and hired former Texas Tech head coach Matt Wells as co-offensive coordinator.

The Wildcats should be strong on the ground, with the dual-threat Johnson (seven rushing touchdowns), running back DJ Giddens (1,226 yards in 2023) and Colorado transfer back Dylan Edwards. Johnson has thrown only 66 passes and will have a new group of starting receivers. The offensive line replaces four multi-year starters.

The defense is talented at edge rusher and defensive back after finishing in the middle of the conference in yards per play allowed a year ago.

The Wildcats have reached 12 bowl games in 14 years, and there’s no reason this shouldn’t be 13 in 15 years.

They should be in Big 12 title contention, and if they win it, they’re in the CFP. Reaching the CFP as an at-large should also be a possibility. The conference schedule is favorable, but Klieman has never gone undefeated in nonconference play at K-State.

Being in contention for the Big 12 title entering November, seeing Johnson live up to the hype and beating Kansas for the 16th year in a row. — Chris Vannini

MVP: DJ Giddens, RB. Averaged 5.6 yards per carry for career and rushed for 1,226 yards in 2023.

Offensive player to watch: Avery Johnson, QB. Most-hyped QB recruit in program history is poised to break out on national scene.

Defensive player to watch: Austin Moore, LB. Has 22.5 tackles for loss over past two seasons.

X-factor: Dylan Edwards, RB. Colorado transfer should factor into running and passing games.

Impact newcomer: Dante Cephas, WR. Kent State and Penn State transfer should be a top target.

Following consecutive Pac-12 title seasons in 2021 and ’22, the Utes slipped to 8-5 and a tie for fifth place in 2023. But that came with a big caveat. Standout quarterback Cam Rising’s recovery from a major knee injury in the previous season’s Rose Bowl took longer than expected, and he never played a down. Utah’s offense finished No. 103 in the FBS without him. Injuries also sidelined all-conference tight end Brant Kuithe, running back Micah Bernard and a host of other contributors.

With Rising and Kuithe both returning for their seventh seasons, and Bernard for a sixth, coach Kyle Whittingham’s program was pegged the preseason favorite in its new league. Rising, returning to the conference where he began his career at Texas, has a career 18-6 record as starter. “He’s like having another coach on the field,” said Whittingham.

Defensive coordinator and head-coach-in-waiting Morgan Scalley must replace first team All-Pac-12 defensive end Jonah Elliss and safety Sione Vaki, but will still field an experienced unit boasting eight returning starters. The Utes held foes to 19.3 points per game last season and could see that number drop even lower.

Whittingham has produced double-digit wins in three of the past five seasons and has reached a bowl game in every full season since 2014. The Utes should have no trouble reaching the postseason again. The question is whether they can finally reach the Playoff.

They never got into the four-team edition. In the new format, though, they would have reached the field as an at-large team in 2019 and as an automatic qualifier in 2021 and ’22.

Making the Playoff. Utah fans expect nothing less after reaching the mountaintop in the Pac-12, and it’s the one box that Whittingham hasn’t yet checked in his future Hall of Fame career. — Stewart Mandel

MVP: Cam Rising, QB. In two years as starter, Rising threw for 5,527 yards, 46 TDs and 13 INTs and also averaged 7.8 yards per rushing on non-sack plays.

Offensive player to watch: Brant Kuithe, TE. He’s played in just four games over the past two years but is a three-time All-Pac-12 pick.

Defensive player to watch: Logan Fano, DE. He was tantalizing as a freshman, notching 3.5 sacks before a Week 5 injury.

X-factor: Mike Mitchell, RB. The redshirt freshman is pushing veterans Bernard and Jaylon Glover.

Impact newcomer: Dorian Singer, WR. The transfer got lost in the rotation in his one season at USC, but in 2022 he caught 66 passes at Arizona.

Oklahoma State went from careening toward disaster to the Big 12 title game in 2023, bouncing back from an early-season loss to South Alabama with a 10-win season. Running back Ollie Gordon II was the biggest reason, leading all FBS players with 1,732 rushing yards and winning the Doak Walker Award.

Gordon is back, along with 20 other returning starters, including quarterback Alan Bowman, receivers Brennan Presley and Rashod Owens, linebackers Collin Oliver and Nickolas Martin and the entire offensive line. It should have Mike Gundy and the Cowboys in the mix for the Big 12 title once again.

As far as questions, can Bowman find more consistency in his seventh college season after finishing last year with 18 touchdowns, 16 interceptions and a 60.4 completion rate? His heights were impressive, including completing 35 of 50 throws for 436 yards in the bowl win over Texas A&M, but he’s been too scattershot. The secondary also needs to improve on its league-worst pass defense in year two under defensive coordinator Bryan Nardo. But the returning talent and experience throughout the roster should be enough to make Oklahoma State a factor.

The Pokes have made a bowl game every year since 2005, which was Gundy’s first season in Stillwater. They’ve fared well during that run, too, going 12-6 overall. I can’t imagine that streak will snap this year, and rather could extend with a trip to the expanded Playoff field should the Cowboys reach their ceiling.

After a rough opening stretch that includes games against Arkansas and Utah and at Kansas State, the schedule lightens up, finishing with a Black Friday trip to Colorado.

Capitalizing on the return of Gordon and the rest of that experience with another run at the Big 12 title game and double-digit victories. — Justin Williams

MVP: Ollie Gordon II, RB. Anyone else winning this would be a surprise, and probably not a pleasant one.

Offensive player to watch: Brennan Presley, WR. Despite having Gordon in the backfield, Presley tied for third in FBS with 101 catches.

Defensive player to watch: Nickolas Martin, LB. Martin led the Big 12 with 140 tackles, and he and Oliver are a formidable duo.

X-factor: Alan Bowman, QB. The delta between a solid season and great season is likely determined by Bowman cutting down turnovers and reaching a completion rate in the mid-60s.

Impact newcomer: Tyler Foster, TE. The Ohio transfer had 33 catches for 396 yards and four TDs over past two seasons.

For a basketball school — and its long-suffering football fan base — Kansas has invested heavily in its gridiron turnaround. The Jayhawks gave head coach Lance Leipold a contract extension that pays more than $7 million a year and pledged $450 million to upgrade its football facilities. On the heels of a 9-4 season and the team’s first bowl victory since 2008, KU has a chance to compete in the Big 12.

The Jayhawks have solid skill players led by running backs Devin Neal and Daniel Hishaw Jr., a lock-down cornerback in Cobee Bryant and a dynamic quarterback in Jalon Daniels.

The key is keeping Daniels healthy. When he is, he’s a dark-horse Heisman contender, but he’s also never played more than nine games in a season, including just three in 2023. If Daniels can manage to reverse that trend, there is more than enough talent around him — and Leipold has proven to be a good enough coach — to keep Kansas near the top of the Big 12 standings.

Leipold led the Jayhawks to back-to-back bowl appearances for the first time in 15 years. No KU head coach has shepherded three straight bowl bids, but that should change this fall.

Big 12 contention is attainable if things break right, and a bowl trip appears to be the expectation for this preseason Top 25 squad, especially with no Utah, Arizona or Oklahoma State on the schedule.

Building off last year’s momentum, reaching a third consecutive bowl game for the first time in program history, and maybe even winning the Sunflower Showdown for the first time since 2008. — Williams

MVP: Devin Neal, RB. Has big-play ability to take over a game out of the backfield and had 1,280 rushing yards in 2023.

Offensive player to watch: Lawrence Arnold, WR. Had 44 catches for 782 yards and six TDs, with 30 catches resulting in first downs.

Defensive player to watch: Cobee Bryant, CB. Had four INTs in 2023 and is one of Big 12’s best in coverage.

X-factor: Jalon Daniels, QB. We know how good he is when healthy. This status is all about whether he can stay on the field.

Impact newcomer: Shane Bumgardner, C. He won the Rimington Award as the best center in Division II at Tiffin University.

Panic briefly ensued in Tucson last January after Washington poached three-year Wildcats head coach Jedd Fisch on the heels of the program’s first 10-win season in nearly a decade. He’d just led them on a season-ending seven-game win streak, capped by a 38-24 win over No. 12 Oklahoma in the Alamo Bowl, their first bowl game in six years. That momentum figured to come to an abrupt halt if the core of the roster hit the portal.

But things stabilized quickly once the school hired San Jose State’s Brent Brennan, a former Arizona graduate assistant whose wife, Courtney, is an Arizona alum and whose brother, Brad, was a Wildcats receiver. While several key players followed Fisch to Seattle, Brennan was able to retain quarterback Noah Fifita and receiver Tetairoa McMillan, the undisputed faces of the resurgent program.

Brennan hired former Syracuse head coach Dino Babers to be his offensive coordinator. Babers, who coached Jimmy Garoppolo at Eastern Illinois, has the makings of an explosive offense on his hands. Meanwhile, Brennan dipped into the portal to land several projected defensive starters. Now it’s just a matter of how quickly all the new faces can jell.

The Wildcats have ample talent to return to the postseason. A year ago, they would have been right on the cusp of reaching a 12-team Playoff, and it’s within the realm of possibility this season.

Matching or exceeding last year’s 9-3 regular-season finish would be a sign that Brennan can keep the momentum going. Ten wins and a possible CFP berth would be even better for a program seeking back-to-back ranked finishes for the first time since 1993-94. — Mandel

MVP: Tetairoa McMillan, WR. The 6-foot-5 WR has lived up to his billing as the highest-ranked recruit in program history.

Offensive player to watch: Quali Conley, RB. Brennan’s No. 2 rusher at SJSU will help replenish depleted backfield.

Defensive player to watch: Jacob Manu, LB. The junior led the Pac-12 with 116 tackles last season.

X-factor: Rhino Tapaatoutai, LT. Redshirt freshman emerged in preseason camp as likely successor to first-round pick Jordan Morgan.

Impact newcomer: Tre Smith and Chubba Ma’ae, DEs. SJSU and UC Davis transfers will lead an otherwise unproven D-line.

The Cyclones are the Big 12 dark horse du jour. That’s because in addition to an always-solid defense, Iowa State could have one of the most talented and balanced offenses in the conference. Redshirt sophomore quarterback Rocco Becht was thrust into a starting spot last year due to a gambling scandal, but it paid off long term, as he grew into the role and completed 63 percent of his throws for 3,120 yards, 23 touchdowns and eight interceptions.

It helps having productive guys like Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins back at receiver, along with tight end Benjamin Brahmer. Running back Abu Sama III had his moments as a true freshman in 2023, most notably 276 yards and three touchdowns in a snow-covered win over Kansas State. Another leap from Sama, with a full offensive line unit returning as well, would give the Cyclones a frighteningly versatile attack in 2024.

Defensively, Matt Campbell’s squad has always been among the stoutest in the Big 12, and that seems likely to continue with first-team all-conference safety Jeremiah Cooper and leading tackler Beau Freyler back, as well as the transfer addition of Kenard Snyder from ULM coming off the edge.

The Cyclones should make it to a seventh bowl game in the past eight seasons under Campbell. It’s a manageable schedule despite road games at Iowa, West Virginia, Kansas and Utah.

Is a Playoff berth in play? The final regular-season stretch in Salt Lake City and home against Kansas State will probably determine how legit that Big 12 dark-horse candidacy proves to be.

Eight-plus wins, including a road victory over Iowa, another bowl game and making some noise in the Big 12 standings. — Williams

MVP: Jayden Higgins, WR. Higgins’ big-play capability with another year of development for Becht could help separate offense.

Offensive player to watch: Rocco Becht, QB. Continued improvement could place him on fringes of 2025 Heisman conversation.

Defensive player to watch: Jeremiah Cooper, DB. The do-everything safety thrives in DC Jon Heacock’s system.

X-factor: Abu Sama III, RB. He ripped off 7.3 yards per carry last season but needs to show he can be a dependable, go-to RB.

Impact newcomer: Kenard Snyder, DL. Snyder (who had 5.5 sacks for ULM in 2023) provides disruptive pass-rush element off edge.

Joey McGuire has taken Texas Tech to two bowl games in two seasons, including a 7-6 record a year ago. Can the Red Raiders get to the next level? They started last season 1-3 with an overtime loss at Wyoming, but won four of the last five games, including against Kansas and Cal in a bowl game.

The 2024 team is headlined by running back Tahj Brooks, who ran for 1,538 yards (fourth-most in FBS) and 10 touchdowns. Quarterback Behren Morton took over for an injured Tyler Shough and played well down the stretch, but the Red Raiders need more explosive plays after finishing 101st in pass plays of 40-plus yards and seeing key receivers transfer. The rest of the offense is loaded with transfers and newcomers at receiver, tight end and offensive line, the last of which must be better.

The defense lost a lot from a group that finished middle of the pack in most key stats but also added several transfers along the line and should be bigger and faster.

A bowl game is a must, especially with a schedule that avoids Utah and the two Kansas schools and has five home Big 12 games. If the team stays healthy and the new faces step up, contending for the Big 12 title game is a possibility.

Reaching a bowl game, finishing in the top third of the Big 12 and avoiding an exodus of transfers again. — Vannini

MVP: Tahj Brooks, RB. The school is pushing 1,500-yard rusher for Heisman.

Offensive player to watch: Josh Kelly, WR. The Washington State transfer had 61 catches for 923 yards and eight TDs.

Defensive player to watch: Ben Roberts, LB. Had 107 tackles and 6.5 TFLs and earned Freshman All-America honors.

X-factor: Behren Morton, QB. A bit of a gunslinger who has battled injuries but has a lot of targets if he can cut down on turnovers.

Impact newcomer: Micah Hudson, WR. The five-star from Temple, Texas, was a top-25 overall recruit.

After playing for the 2022 national championship, TCU crashed back to earth with a 5-7 season that began with a loss to Colorado and had four one-score defeats. The Horned Frogs never found their form or momentum and lost six of their last eight games, allowing 69 points to Oklahoma in the finale. Head coach Sonny Dykes made a defensive coordinator change after finishing 79th in scoring defense, hiring former Boise State head coach Andy Avalos.

The 24 incoming transfers are new to Fort Worth but are veterans. Quarterback Josh Hoover had ups and downs as a redshirt freshman but should still be the starter, though Vanderbilt transfer Ken Seals could push him. The rushing game will have a by-committee approach with several players led by Cam Cooke and behind a new offensive line, which will need to come together for the offense to improve. Offensive coordinator Kendal Briles struggled in his first season replacing Garrett Riley but is back.

The defense loses star cornerback Josh Newton but should play more aggressively than TCU’s previous 3-3-5 formation, with a good group at linebacker. How well the defensive transfer additions fit in could decide how far this team goes.

With nonconference games at Stanford and SMU, the Horned Frogs would do best to win both before heading into a deep Big 12 schedule that includes five conference road games.

A bowl game is possible and expected. A Big 12 and CFP run is unlikely, but of course, it also was two years ago.

Reaching a bowl game, beating SMU and taking a true step forward, convincing people that 2022 was not a fluke. — Vannini

MVP: Savion Williams, WR. Led TCU with 573 receiving yards and averaged 14 yards per catch.

Offensive player to watch: Josh Hoover, QB. Has had his moments, topping 400 yards vs. BYU and Baylor, but missed spring practice due to surgery.

Defensive player to watch: Namdi Obiazor, LB. Led TCU with 84 tackles and four sacks after move from safety.

X-factor: Eric McAlister, WR. The 6-3 Boise State transfer had 873 yards and five TDs in nine games and entered portal before season ended.

Impact newcomer: Kaleb Elarms-Orr, LB. The Cal transfer had 92 tackles, an INT and a forced fumble in 2023.

Of course the Mountaineers could be underestimated once again. That’s what head coach Neal Brown believes, and that was the case last season. Brown and WVU proved everyone wrong then … but can they do it again? Does West Virginia have enough to fully crash that top tier of Big 12 contenders?

WVU flirted with it in 2023, finishing with nine wins, and on paper it has the horses to be there in 2024. The trio of quarterback Garrett Greene and running backs CJ Donaldson Jr. and Jahiem White forms one of the most potent ground attacks in college football, and the passing game should benefit from new faces at receiver and improvements from Greene. Offensively, the Mountaineers can hang.

The Mountaineers should be solid in the trenches as well, blending returning experience with crucial portal additions at two position groups that excelled in 2023. The concern is in the secondary, where an overhauled set of players will need to jell in short order. If that happens, and if Greene can ascend a level as a passer, WVU has a ceiling that can send them to Jerry World for the Big 12 title game. But the floor still feels a tad lower than those above them.

This is a bowl team, but it won’t come easy. West Virginia has nonconference games against Penn State and Pitt, then a brutal stretch to open league play against Kansas, at Oklahoma State, vs. Iowa State and Kansas State and at Arizona.

The load lightens down the stretch, so if WVU can scrounge four wins out of the first eight games, it will be in solid shape. More than that, and more than just a bowl appearance will feel possible.

An early win over Penn State or Pitt, another bowl invite and hanging around the Big 12 title race come November. — Williams

MVP: Garrett Greene, QB. Fifth-year dual-threat threw for 2,400 yards and ran for nearly 800 with 29 combined TDs.

Offensive player to watch: Jahiem White, RB. Big games over BYU, Cincinnati and Baylor led to 967 combined yards and eight TDs.

Defensive player to watch: Aubrey Burks, DB.Moving from high safety to hybrid “spear” position because of versatile skil set.

X-factor: Sean Martin, DL. Martin has been in the rotation but has all the talent and physical tools necessary for a breakout season.

Impact newcomer: Jaden Bray, WR. The OK State transfer gives Greene a big target and dynamic talent on outside.

UCF’s offense has a chance to be terrifying. The running backs unit is one of the best and deepest in college football, led by RJ Harvey, who was sixth in the FBS with 1,416 yards in 2023. The Knights added MAC Offensive Player of the Year Peny Boone, who was eighth in the FBS with 1,400 yards, as well as swift-footed Cincinnati transfer Myles Montgomery. Kobe Hudson is a game-breaker at wide receiver.

And if head coach Gus Malzahn can unlock any remaining potential in Arkansas transfer KJ Jefferson at the collegiate level, the Knights will be a blur with the ball in their hands.

Defensively, UCF struggled mightily to stop the run last season, allowing nearly 200 yards per game on the ground. Their lack of depth and experience in power-conference football showed up in fourth quarters a year ago. The team took some chances on defensive players such as Nyjalik Kelly and Deshawn Pace. If those hit, UCF will be a fringe contender in the Big 12. If Jefferson falters or the defense still isn’t up to snuff, the Knights will be a fun but frustrating bunch.

The Knights barely reached bowl eligibility last season, and it could be another tight margin in 2024. No Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Kansas or Texas Tech on the schedule should help the run defense tamp down, but UCF still has to go on the road to Florida, Iowa State and West Virginia and gets Arizona and Utah at home.

A ninth consecutive bowl trip appears to be a toss-up.

A win over Florida in the Swamp and a ninth bowl game in a row. — Williams

MVP: RJ Harvey, RB. Harvey is one of the most dynamic runners in college footbal.

Offensive player to watch: Kobe Hudson, WR. Ex-Auburn transfer is Knights’ leading returning receiver (900 yards and eight TDs).

Defensive player to watch: Lee Hunter, DT. The 320-pound tackle had 69 total tackles and 11 tackles for loss.

X-factor: KJ Jefferson, QB. At 6-3, 250 pounds, Arkansas transfer has talent packed into every square inch.

Impact newcomer: Peny Boone, RB. Will split time with Harvey to form a righteous 1-2 punch.

In 2023, BYU learned the same lesson hated rival Utah did a dozen years earlier: It’s hard to move up to a power conference.

The Cougars, 29-9 the previous three seasons, lost their last five games to finish 2-7 in Big 12 play and 5-7 overall. Like Utah, which initially struggled in the Pac-12 before becoming a contender, BYU has worked to upgrade its talent and depth. It’s not yet clear, though, how long that will take.

At quarterback, Jake Retzlaff, 0-4 as a starter last season, has been locked in a tight preseason competition with former Baylor and USF starter Gerry Bohanon. The Cougars need a spark to improve on the nation’s No. 117 offense. The defense wasn’t much better, finishing No. 109, but should be more comfortable in second-year coordinator Jay Hill’s scheme.

As bad as those stats look, BYU went into the regular-season finale at Oklahoma State with a chance at bowl eligibility and took the Cowboys to double overtime. This year, it hopes to get back on the right side of .500.

BYU’s schedule does it no favors. The Cougars travel to SMU, league favorite Utah and sleeper-team UCF, while hosting Arizona, Oklahoma State and Kansas, all of them ranked in the preseason Top 25.

Reaching six wins will be challenging, though it’s not unattainable.

Reaching a bowl game, which BYU did in 17 of the 18 seasons prior to last year. Of course, the Cougars were not yet in a power conference during that span. — Mandel

MVP: Tyler Batty, DE. Has 15 career sacks, and PFF credits him with 101 career QB pressures.

Offensive player to watch: LJ Martin, RB. Rushed for 518 yards on 109 carries as a freshman and should be featured back.

Defensive player to watch: Jakob Robinson, CB. Has eight career INTs, including four last season.

X-factor: Offensive line coach TJ Woods. O-line needs to be much better, and Woods spent a decade with one of Kalani Sitake’s mentors, Gary Anderson.

Impact newcomer: Jack Kelly, OLB. Big Sky’s sack leader should be disruptive as he reunites with Hill.

The combination of a coaching change and move from the AAC to Big 12 proved too much all at once for the Bearcats, who slipped to 3-9 and last place in the league standings. So Scott Satterfield fully hit the reset button, bringing in 48 new players via the portal and high school ranks and striving to imprint his own culture on a program that is still only two seasons removed from a trip to the Playoff.

Offensively, the Bearcats return 1,000-yard running back Corey Kiner and the entire offensive line from a unit that was sixth in the FBS in rushing yards per game last season, led by All-American guard Luke Kandra. The major change is bringing in Indiana transfer Brendan Sorsby at quarterback. He’s a young, dual-threat talent who Satterfield believes will thrive in his system. The hope will be that Sorsby can make major strides in the passing game compared with what Emory Jones did a season ago, particularly on the deep throws too often misfired.

Defensively, former Iowa State linebackers coach Tyson Veidt takes over as coordinator of a unit with a rebuilt secondary. The defensive line is a concern, with two rotational players lost for the year due to injury and star defensive tackle Dontay “The Godfather” Corleone working his way back from blood clots that limited him this summer.

It feels like a toss-up. The schedule is manageable, with no Utah, Arizona, Oklahoma State or Kansas, and Houston, Arizona State and TCU at home. There is a path to a 4-0 start with Towson, Pitt, at Miami (OH) and Houston to open the season, which would be a nice boost to program morale and those bowl-game hopes with a stretch of West Virginia, at Iowa State and at Kansas State looming in November.

Avenging last year’s embarrassing home loss to Miami (OH) and clawing to bowl eligibility. — Williams

MVP: Corey Kiner, RB. Former LSU transfer had 1,047 yards in his first season as the lead back in 2023.

Offensive player to watch: Xzavier Henderson, WR. He led the Bearcats in receiving and at 6-3 is a massive target on the outside and over the top.

Defensive player to watch: Dontay Corleone, DT. Former All-American has been slowly working his way back from blood clots, and his return is key.

X-factor: Brendan Sorsby, QB. He could be the multi-year solution at QB and got in great shape over the offseason.

Impact newcomer: Joe Royer, TE. The Cincy native and Ohio State transfer is a big target at 6-5.

The bottom fell out in 2023, as Baylor went 3-9, lost its final five games and Dave Aranda had to convince the school to give him another year. Aranda is 23-25 in four years, with one winning season. But that one included a Big 12 championship in 2021, with BU finishing 12-2.

The 2023 defense was the worst in the Big 12, so Aranda takes over as defensive play caller. He also hired Jake Spavital as offensive coordinator with a completely revamped offensive staff.

Quarterback Blake Shapen transferred to Mississippi State, but Baylor added Dequan Finn from Toledo, the reigning MAC Player of the Year. The Bears return a lot of experience, but that’s not always a good thing from a 3-9 team. Baylor as a university is used to winning across the board. The football program can’t sit around and continue to lose games. It’s a make-or-break year for Aranda.

Forget the CFP, a bowl game is the goal. The conference schedule has some room for wins, but a trip to Utah is a tough nonconference game (even though Utah is in the Big 12), and Air Force is always tricky. You can find six wins in the schedule, but it involves winning a lot of coin-flip matchups.

The Bears must at least get back to a bowl game for Aranda to save his job. If not, this is a job that will get a lot of interest from coaches. — Vannini

MVP: Caden Jenkins, CB. Earned second-team Freshman All-America honors with three INTs.

Offensive player to watch: Dequan Finn. QB. The dual-threat Toledo transfer is very experienced.

Defensive player to watch: Matt Jones, LB. Led the Bears with 82 tackles and 11.5 TFLs last year, along with three sacks.

X-factor: Monaray Baldwin, WR. The speedster led the Bears with 38 catches for 623 yards in 2023.

Impact newcomer: JaQues Evans, LB. Was WKU’s best defensive player the past few years before a hamstring injury ended his 2023 early.

Deion Sanders’ first season in Boulder was characteristically chaotic. After a dramatic roster purge left the 2023 Buffs with 72 new players, he became the talk of sports when CU, 1-11 the year before, opened the season 3-0. But the Buffs won only once more after that, dropping six straight to close the season and infamously blowing a 29-0 halftime lead against 3-9 Stanford.

More offseason turnover followed, with 41 players transferring out and 43 coming in. Sanders has already replaced both of his initial coordinators, with former NFL head coach Pat Shurmur and Cincinnati Bengals assistant Robert Livingston now running the offense and defense.

But the Buffs coach insists a breakthrough is near, noting how much more competitive CU was in 2023 than the year prior. Star quarterback Shedeur Sanders and two-way sensation Travis Hunter are back for another run before their projected first-round selections. But the Buffs need to see massive improvement in pass protection after allowing 56 sacks in 12 games, as well as from a defense that ranked No. 130 out of 133 teams. Deion’s first season figured to be rough, but there will be no sympathy for excuses if the Buffs flounder again.

The Buffs could have reached a bowl last season had they managed to close out just two of their five one-score losses. Even modest improvement this season should get them across the finish line.

But they play just six home games and must face each of the top-five teams in the Big 12’s preseason poll (Utah, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Kansas and Arizona).

CU hasn’t won even five games in a season since 2016, so reaching a bowl would be a notable milestone. But given the outsized attention surrounding Sanders, anything short of eight wins may still feel like a letdown. — Mandel

MVP: Shedeur Sanders, QB. Despite little protection, he thew for 3,230 yards, and 27 TDs with just three picks.

Offensive player to watch: Jordan Seaton, LT. Sanders is banking on the five-star recruit from IMG Academy to become an immediate cornerstone.

Defensive player to watch: Travis Hunter, CB. He’s a full-time receiver who could also be the nation’s top cover corner.

X-factor: The entire offensive line. Colorado will go only as far as this unit can improve. It will trot out five new starters.

Impact newcomer: BJ Green, DE. Deion sees Arizona State transfer as a potential first-rounder.

Kenny Dillingham, 34, became the youngest head coach in the FBS last season when he was hired to replace the scandal-tarnished Herm Edwards. His first season was as challenging as they come, with the Sun Devils playing under a self-imposed postseason ban, breaking in 50 new players and dealing with a staggering degree of injuries.

At one point, a desperate Dillingham broke out the Swinging Gate for a late-season game at UCLA — and it worked. ASU’s 17-7 win at the Rose Bowl was the highlight of an otherwise forgettable 3-9 campaign.

Dillingham’s daunting rebuilding job continues. ASU is starting over at quarterback, naming redshirt freshman Sam Leavitt, a Michigan State transfer, as its starter. The front-line defense will be almost entirely new, with former transfers comprising the majority of the two-deep. Expectations remain modest in Dillingham’s second season, but fans at least want to see some progress.

They’re not great. The Sun Devils, picked to finish last in the 16-team Big 12, face SEC foe Mississippi State and visit Sun Belt darling Texas State before opening a Big 12 slate that includes league favorites Utah and Kansas State and a trip to Oklahoma State.

Anything that’s better than last season, when ASU lost 55-3 at Utah, 49-13 to Oregon and 59-23 to Arizona. The Sun Devils don’t need to reach a bowl, but they need to be more competitive on a weekly basis. — Mandel

MVP: Cam Skattebo, RB. Sacramento State transfer emerged as most exciting offensive player last season, with 1,069 yards from scrimmage.

Offensive player to watch: Jordyn Tyson, WR. Two seasons ago at Colorado, he broke out with back-to-back 100-yard games, only to tear ACL and MCL.

Defensive player to watch: Shamari Simmons, FS. The fifth-year senior transferred in from juco and became team defensive MVP last season.

X-factor: Sam Leavitt, QB. Redshirt freshman beat out former Georgia Tech and Nebraska starter Jeff Sims.

Impact newcomer: Keyshaun Elliott, LB. After leading NMSU with 111 tackles, Elliott quickly asserted himself as a much-needed leader for ASU.

Houston’s Week 2 loss to Rice, its first Bayou Bucket defeat in 13 years, was a sign of things to come in 2023. The Cougars finished 4-8 overall and just 2-7 in their first Big 12 season, even while taking Texas down to the wire.

Head coach Dana Holgorsen, who came from West Virginia with much fanfare and a giant salary, was fired after his third losing season in five years at the helm. Houston replaced him with Willie Fritz from Tulane, a veteran coach who has won at every level of college football.

Expect Houston to get back to running the ball, rather than finishing 123rd in rush attempts again. Defensive coordinator Shiel Wood built a top-20 defense at Troy and followed Fritz from Tulane. The Houston defense finished 108th in points allowed and 95th in yards per play allowed. The improvement has to start there as a program that got used to Top 25 finishes looks to get back there.

Making a bowl game could be tough, with games against Oklahoma, Utah, Kansas, Kansas State, and Arizona on the schedule, plus a tough opener against UNLV. But Fritz has just five losing seasons in 31 years as a head coach dating back to 1993.

Winning the Big 12 and making the CFP have little chance of happening.

Getting back to a bowl game and finding some future foundational players would be a good start for Fritz era. — Vannini

MVP: Donovan Smith, QB. Threw for nearly 3,000 yards and led the Cougars in rush attempts for another 428 yards.

Offensive player to watch: Joseph Manjack IV, WR. The leading returning receiver had 577 yards and a team-high six TDs.

Defensive player to watch: A.J. Haulcy, S. Just one of two returning starters, Haulcy led the Cougars with 98 tackles.

X-factor: Parker Jenkins, RB. Fritz likes to lean on his run game, and last year’s leading rusher should see even more work.

Impact newcomer: Maliq Carr, TE. Michigan State transfer is an elite athlete who received interest from the WWE.