What should Arsenal do in this transfer window?
On the one hand, their need is obvious. Having lost Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Jesus to serious injuries, they are short of numbers in attack.
With Leandro Trossard needed on the flanks, Kai Havertz is their only realistic senior option at centre-forward. The Champions League debut handed to 22-year-old Nathan Butler-Oyedeji as a late substitute in the 3-0 victory over Dinamo Zagreb on Wednesday was a touching moment for an academy graduate, but also an illustration of the lack of options at Mikel Arteta’s disposal.
The Arsenal hierarchy recognise there is some urgency to the situation, and are actively seeking to augment Arteta’s attacking options between now and the February 3 deadline.
But doing so will not be straightforward. Like many clubs, Arsenal do not perceive January to be an ideal market. Many players are unwilling to move, and a combination of a compressed timeline and acute needs can lead to overpaying.
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Arsenal have long-term targets in attack. They explored a deal for Benjamin Sesko last summer, but the Slovenia international chose to stay with RB Leipzig.
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Alexander Isak remains high on Arteta’s wishlist, although there are considerable doubts about whether Arsenal could muster a fee that would tempt Newcastle United to sell.
Sporting CP’s Viktor Gyokeres has also been watched extensively, but Arsenal do not seem to hold him in the same regard as Isak or Sesko.
None of that trio appears a particularly realistic January signing. Newcastle parting with Isak as they push for a return to the Champions League is unthinkable.
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Arsenal have received little encouragement that bidding for Sesko this month would prove successful. He chose to stay at Leipzig last summer, signing a new contract. For Leipzig to sell their star player, late in the window, would be difficult for their fans to stomach — especially as they are also in a fight for Champions League qualification.
Arsenal do not have an unlimited budget. As well as the Premier League’s rules, they must also abide by UEFA’s spending regulations and €60million (£50m; $62m) may already have been earmarked for the pursuit of Real Sociedad midfielder Martin Zubimendi.
Arsenal are pursuing a deal for Zubimendi this summer (Juan Manuel Serrano Arce/Getty Images)
If their primary targets are out of reach, what are they to do? Do they turn to players further down their list of preferred targets, knowing that a significant purchase probably puts paid to any attempt to land a Sesko or an Isak in the summer?
Take the case of Matheus Cunha. Arsenal are admirers of the Brazilian’s talent and have followed him since he was at Atletico Madrid. Cunha is in a stand-off with Wolverhampton Wanderers over a new contract and could be available for the right price. The word in football is that it would take a fee of £70million (£86m) to prise him away from the Midlands. Is he worth that to Arsenal? Especially if it costs them a run at one of their main targets?
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Were Arsenal neck-a-neck in the title race with Liverpool, it might be different. Two years ago, Arsenal were front-runners in the Premier League and the club spent the best part of £60million on three January signings. With the big win in sight, the club stacked everything on red.
Arsenal still consider themselves to be in a title race. But in a year where it has felt like everything has gone against them, will they be as willing to push the boat out? If a player was available they believed could transform them into title-winners, they would doubtless do it. Whether such a player is available in January is another matter.
That January of 2023 could prove instructive — Arsenal lost out on their primary target, Mykhailo Mudryk, so pivoted to sign Trossard. He was a less-heralded but more proven Premier League player, arriving for a reasonable fee and making an immediate impact. Trossard has exceeded all expectations, making 100 appearances with 40 goals and assists.
Perhaps the challenge is to find a similar player — one who doesn’t break the bank, but can provide reliable depth. The debate over the centre-forward position has masked a strong first half of the season from Havertz, who has 14 goals in 30 appearances.
Havertz has almost everything Arteta wants from a centre-forward. There are strikers out there who could take them to another level but not many.
Havertz has 14 goals this season (Jacques Feeney/Offside/Offside via Getty Images)
If Arsenal are convinced that Sesko is one, it has to be worth one final concerted effort to sign him in January. If he truly is the guy, then perhaps Arsenal should consider offering the 21-year-old an ultimatum: we need you this season, so it’s now or never. It’s risky — but it’s how the biggest clubs behave.
If not, then Arsenal are back in that tricky spot: do they spend big on a player who is not quite what they want, or forego a signing and wait for the summer? Ethan Nwaneri is fit again, and Saka should return in time for the run-in.
Keeping their powder dry would bring its own risks: it would significantly reduce any remaining chance of silverware this season. What’s more, it would pile more pressure on the summer. Even in that scenario, landing Sesko or Isak is far from guaranteed.
Alternatively, can they find that Goldilocks player in what remains of the window: somebody who doesn’t break the budget, but can still contribute? Their best hope may be a short-term solution via the loan market. In the last week of the window, players can become available who were previously off limits.
Arsenal fans may feel frustrated that the club have entered the final 10 days of the window without yet landing on an answer. Saka was injured on December 21. The club have had to navigate a taxing January fixture list, with an ailing squad still awaiting the cavalry. It has arguably cost them a place in the FA Cup fourth round, and potentially the Carabao Cup final.
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Could the club have acted sooner? The reality is that until Jesus ruptured his anterior cruciate ligament on January 12, Arsenal were not particularly expecting to make an attacking signing. That injury has forced them to reconsider — at short notice. An already brief window has become smaller still. Arsenal’s leadership have to think and move quickly.
On the night of the Zagreb game, Arsenal fan and street artist Northbanksy made an amendment to his mural of co-chair Josh Kroenke. Underneath the monochrome portrait of Arsenal’s owner, he wrote: “Time to splash some cash, Josh.”
There has been a slight alteration to the painting of Arsenal’s co-chair, Josh Kroenke (James McNicholas/The Athletic)
It is a sentiment many Arsenal fans would concur with. But for Kroenke, Arteta, interim sporting director Jason Ayto and Arsenal’s other key decision-makers, it may not be quite so simple.
Arsenal do need something more, but what appears a straightforward requirement is actually a big moment strategically. Arsenal must weigh the urgency of their current need against the sanctity of their long-term plan.
(Top photos: Benjamin Sesko and Matheus Cunha; Getty Images)
