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First things first: LT Trent Williams, an 11-time Pro Bowler and three-time first-team All-Pro, has agreed to a contract extension with the 49ers, Dianna reports. His holdout is over. More on this tomorrow. Until then, let’s get into:
- ✍ 10 predictions for 2024
- 🎙 Surprise team of the year
- ➕ Week 1 waiver adds
10 Predictions for the 2024 NFL season
Labor Day has come and gone, taking the summer and the right to wear white clothing with it. (Unless you’re playing on the road or are the Cowboys or Dolphins.) In exchange, we get cooler weather, sweaters and NFL football.
With two nights until kickoff, I wanted to share my 10 predictions for this season:
- The Chiefs will not three-peat. The last team to chase a three-peat (the early 2000s Patriots) saw star corner Ty Law depart in the offseason before injury luck caught up with them. In Kansas City, they also lost a star corner (L’Jarius Sneed). But beyond personnel losses, there are plenty of reasons why we’ve never seen a three-peat in the Super Bowl era, especially because on any given Sunday, injuries, mistakes and luck change a game. I’m betting there’s a new winner. Mike Jones disagrees.
- Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans is between the Bengals and 49ers. When led by Joe Burrow, Cincinnati is 3-1 against Patrick Mahomes. Cincy has the offensive pieces, an improved defense and a schedule that could provide a first-round bye. And with San Francisco’s contract chaos resolving, Kyle Shanahan returns the most talented roster in the NFL — plus potential continued improvement from Brock Purdy.
- Aaron Rodgers reverts to MVP form. When we last saw a fully healthy Rodgers, he went 13-3, throwing for 4,000-plus yards, 37 touchdowns and just four interceptions, all at 38 years old. Yes, 2022 was rough and 2023 was worse. But on a Jets team built to win now, Rodgers returns to elite status. He’s Mike Jones’ most intriguing player to watch this season.
- The Jets sweep production-based awards. Plenty of primetime games keep New York stars WR Garrett Wilson and CB Sauce Gardner in the spotlight. Both have career-best seasons en route to winning Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year awards. Here are the odds on these awards.
- But Rodgers is not the MVP. That goes to Burrow, who quarterbacks the Bengals to a first-place finish while leading the NFL in passing yards and touchdowns. He also narrowly beats Rodgers for Comeback Player of the Year.
- Six rookie QBs start in 2024. No, I don’t expect a miracle return for J.J. McCarthy. But I do see Spencer Rattler taking over as New Orleans’ quarterback around midseason and Michael Penix Jr. starting in Week 18 (after Atlanta clinches a playoff berth), joining Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix and Drake Maye.
- Caleb Williams and Seattle DT Byron Murphy win their respective rookie of the year awards. Both thrived in August, and it’s clear their teams put the talented rookies in positions to succeed immediately in the NFL.
- Daniel Jones will do something that makes me laugh (though this will be hard to top) and eventually get benched for Drew Lock.
- The Raiders start 5-1. Despite rumblings of a Davante Adams trade request, this team is much improved from the Antonio Pierce unit that finished last year 3-1. A cake-walk early schedule and the Gardner Minshew upgrade transform them into deadline buyers.
- Worst record: Patriots at 2-15. They have uncertainty at quarterback and the second-toughest schedule based on projected win totals, plus their typically stout defense lost Bill Belichick and key players. The No. 1 pick is a nice consolation prize. Mock draft time already.
What Dianna’s Hearing: Anthony Richardson is still running
In addition to the San Fran news up top, here’s a note from today’s episode of the “Scoop City” podcast. My co-host, Chase Daniel, made the case for why the Colts will be the team that surprises the NFL this year.
I’ll be honest, I don’t entirely agree. But Chase and I can agree on this: With Anthony Richardson’s four rushing touchdowns in four games during his injury-shortened rookie year, plus his couple other long runs, we can all feel confident that his legs will be a powerful weapon in Shane Steichen’s offense.
Despite concerns that Richardson doesn’t protect himself sufficiently, a factor in the season-ending injury to his throwing shoulder, there are no plans to reduce his role as a runner. The Colts open up against the division-rival Texans on Sunday. Houston, along with the rest of the league, expects the ground game to be Indy’s offensive identity.
Click here to listen to the full episode.
Back to you, Jacob.
Week 1 Waiver Wire: Fantasy players to watch
Each Tuesday throughout the season, we’ll look at the best waiver-wire adds for your fantasy team.
Today, I’m sharing six players I expect to see rise in demand after this week’s games. They all appear in Jake Ciely’s Week 1 Streamers:
RB J.K. Dobbins. Healthy and competing against (his former backup) Gus Edwards in a Chargers offense that is a fair bet to lead the NFL in rushing attempts, Dobbins is a no-brainer stash for Week 1.
Deeper leagues: RB Dylan Laube, the Raiders’ pass-catching rookie who might be better than Zamir White.
RB Rico Dowdle. Jake writes, “Dowdle was better than Tony Pollard in nearly every metric last year. The Dalvin Cook signing could be more about Ezekiel Elliott than Dowdle, and they’re all worth stashing for now until we see things shake out.”
Deeper leagues: RB Ray Davis, who would fill in for James Cook in Buffalo if ever needed.
WR Marvin Mims. The Broncos created a larger role for Mims — who was Sean Payton’s first pick in Denver — by trading Jerry Jeudy this offseason. Mims could have a Brandin Cooks-like breakout after their comparable rookie seasons.
Deeper leagues: WR Malik Washington, the third receiver in Mike McDaniel’s explosive offense.
Around the NFL
49ers WR Ricky Pearsall was released from the hospital on Sunday and will miss at least four games. He was shot in the chest during an attempted robbery on Saturday.
Speaking of Dolphins HC McDaniel, he signed a new contract, keeping him with the franchise — and Tua Tagovailoa — through 2028.
Colts TE Kylen Granson will wear the Guardian Cap this season, calling the additional head protection similar to wearing a seatbelt.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes joked that pop star Taylor Swift is “already drawing up plays” and that the team “might have to put one in.”
For more on Mahomes, read “The secret of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid’s creative partnership“, by Rustin Dodd and Jayson Jenks.
Friday’s most-clicked: 49ers, Brandon Aiyuk agree to 4-year, $120 million extension.
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