This is an important time on the athletics calendar. Football’s in roster management mode, basketball’s in full swing in SEC play and the looming changes in college sports are always prevalent.
It’s a good time for an Alabama mailbag. We’ll get to that later in the week, but I thought one question stood out and deserved its own story.
How would you rate the likelihood of each candidate’s chances of being the starter at the first game of the season? — Lyle B.
The candidates are fourth-year junior Ty Simpson, third-year sophomore Austin Mack and true freshman Keelon Russell. Here’s the case for each, with a percentage chance of winning the job:
Ty Simpson: 60 percent
He’s the most experienced option by far and will be stepping into a bigger leadership position as the longest-tenured offensive player in the program, alongside running back Jam Miller. The conversation around Simpson and Jalen Milroe was polarizing. For all of Milroe’s shortcomings, two different coaching staffs chose him as the starter. What has held Simpson back, and how does he rectify it to become the starter in 2025?
Simpson’s shown some good things in limited game action. Finally pairing the mental aspect with his physical tools is how he wins the job. Competition isn’t new to Simpson, who battled Milroe and Tyler Buchner in 2023. He left fall camp third on the depth chart but got an opportunity at South Florida after Buchner — who was starting in place of a benched Milroe — struggled in the first half. Simpson completed 5 of 9 passes for 73 yards and added a rushing touchdown. He made some good throws but struggled with his internal clock, taking five sacks and leaving a few plays on the field. Ultimately he won the game and was elevated to the clear No. 2 QB for the remainder of the season.
He didn’t win the starting job but learned a valuable lesson.
“I was immature back then,” Simpson said in November via UA CTSN. “I was more worried about how people saw me and how I wanted to play the game and how the game should be played. I should’ve relaxed and played free and not cared about what other people think, and not tried to make a big statement about who should’ve been the starter.”
Simpson displayed the maturity to stay engaged a week later against Ole Miss, converting a key two-point play when Milroe was knocked out in the third quarter.
He remained at Alabama despite Milroe’s position as the clear-cut starter and through a coaching change. He’s a dual-threat but a different style quarterback than Milroe. Simpson’s limited reps over the last two seasons have shown growth in his internal clock, leading to faster decisions. He’s continued to flash as a runner too.
DeBoer’s history with the vertical passing game appealed to Simpson, as well as the staff’s style of coaching quarterbacks. It plays into Simpson continuing to work toward “playing free,” and if he does, it’s his job to lose.
“During my first two years I felt not robotic, but I didn’t play as free,” Simpson said. “Because I wanted to do things the exact way, but at the end of the day, it’s a game. That’s what (the coaches) have really emphasized and told me — just play.”
Austin Mack: 20 percent
Mack is the wild card. He and DeBoer have a deep history from his high school recruitment. DeBoer sold Mack, a former top-75 national prospect from California, on reclassifying to the 2023 class specifically to learn from Michael Penix Jr. in his final year at Washington.
Mack’s junior year of high school was prolific. He completed 269 of 382 attempts for 3,498 yards with 40 touchdowns and only five interceptions. He led Folsom High School in Northern California to a 12-2 record and a Sac-Joaquin Section D1 Championship. If he hadn’t reclassified and instead played out his senior year, there’s a good chance he would’ve been in five-star consideration in the Class of 2024 alongside players like DJ Lagway, Dylan Raiola and Julian Sayin.
Instead, he’s spent the last few years learning from Penix and Milroe. What if this young, talented player pops in his third year under DeBoer?
Mack made strides as Alabama’s scout team quarterback this season, mimicking players such as Carson Beck, Nico Iamaleava and Garrett Nussmeier. He earned praise from Deontae Lawson after the LSU game for how he performed as Nussmeier throughout the week (Lawson had an interception in the game).
Mack is held in high regard within the program.
“He’s one of the hardest workers on the team,” DeBoer said during ReliaQuest Bowl prep. “He’s doing stuff on his own pretty much every day. You pick an early morning time when we don’t have practice, he’s doing something in some facility here. You bounce around and all of a sudden hear a ball being thrown or something moving. He’s one of those guys. He’s a gym rat.”
Mack arrived in college as a 17-year-old needing to grow into his 6-foot-6 frame. He has two years of experience (on the practice field) and has added 26 pounds (according to recruiting sites and Alabama’s football roster). Is the next step starting? It’d take a pretty special spring to unseat Simpson. Mack’s brief showing against Mercer was strong — he threw a 31-yard touchdown pass — but for now, he’s a dark horse with promising upside.
If there was a high school football video game, Keelon Russell would be a 99 overall.
Absolutely sensational throw to fellow 5⭐️ Dakorien Moore for this 72-yard TD before the half.
➡️ https://t.co/LNqB4bvfPK#RollTide pic.twitter.com/JERDryMSDp
— Joseph Hastings III (@JosephAHastings) October 26, 2024
Keelon Russell: 20 percent
Russell feels like the future of the program. DeBoer and offensive coordinator Nick Sheridan identified Russell early as a three-star recruit. Now he’s entering Alabama as one of the most decorated high school players in the nation, ranked in the top three overall by multiple recruiting sites and the winner of the Maxwell National Player of the Year and Gatorade National Player of the Year awards.
“The relationship with Kalen DeBoer, the relationship with (offensive coordinator) Nick Sheridan were just phenomenal all throughout my recruiting process,” Russell told The Athletic at the Under Armour All-American Game. “When I came up there and they started talking about the quarterback room, how I could possibly be the No. 1 quarterback to actually start my freshman year if I come in and do my work, it’s exciting to me. You don’t see a lot of freshmen playing in the SEC and at Alabama on top of that.
“The main thing that me and Nick Sheridan were talking about — we’ve been on multiple Zooms, we’ve been answering FaceTimes — he’s more of (the mindset of), ‘We’re gonna help you adjust to the offense so anything that fits you, we’re gonna do. We’re not gonna put you in bad predicaments, bad situations where you’re not comfortable.’”
Russell’s as battle-tested as a high school quarterback can be, competing in Texas’ 6A division and producing one of the greatest prep careers of all time — a 42-2 career record, 10,000-plus total yards, 125-plus touchdowns and two state championships. He also excelled against his QB peers, winning MVP honors at Elite 11 Finals this past summer.
But he still has to overcome the knowledge gap compared to the rest of the quarterbacks, and he certainly has to add to his listed 175-pound frame. There’s no denying his talent, though, which makes him an intriguing candidate.
The spring will be interesting. Best case scenario: He dazzles enough in his reps (most of which will likely be against the second and third team) to earn a bigger opportunity going into fall camp.
This is going to be arguably the most high-profile quarterback battle in college football. Simpson sits in pole position, and if he’s unseated, it means a talented young quarterback is doing special things.
(Photo of Ty Simpson: Andy Lyons / Getty Images)
