Winnipeg’s third defence pair of Ville Heinola and Logan Stanley is a short-term problem that is supposed to provide a long-term solution. At the moment, it’s not looking good.
The Jets hope one or both first-round picks can cement themselves as everyday third-pairing defencemen. They are willing to endure growing pains to find out whether Stanley, 26, or Heinola, 23, can help higher up the lineup someday, too.
But both players struggled as Winnipeg coughed up two third-period leads Thursday. Heinola was benched; Stanley was on the ice for both Vegas Golden Knights goals and contributed directly to one of them. Thus, even as the Jets try to remain patient about each defenceman in a macro sense, Jets fans are losing patience — some with Heinola, some with Stanley, some with the coach — right here, right now.
It’s been eight years since Winnipeg traded up to take Stanley in the 2016 draft and five years since Heinola was taken with the first-round pick Winnipeg got back, in part, for Jacob Trouba. I don’t think the Jets feel like they know what they have — even if it can be argued they should know by now, particularly with the 26-year-old Stanley — but they’re trying to stay patient with both players. Scott Arniel has played the smaller, offensively inclined Heinola on his offhand side alongside the bigger, occasionally physical Stanley on Winnipeg’s third pairing.
Neither defenceman was particularly good Thursday night. It can be argued they haven’t been good as a pairing; whereas the Jets earned 53 percent of the shots with the veteran third-pair option of Haydn Fleury and Colin Miller earlier in the season, they’ve earned only 46 percent of shots with Heinola and Stanley together now. The Jets have a longer track record of Stanley’s struggles — both in previous seasons and before Heinola’s return to health this season — but no analysis of Thursday’s game should include a declaration of Heinola’s excellence versus Stanley’s struggles. But each player struggled. One was benched.
“Ville got stuck in our end a few times and we were kind of looking at five (defencemen),” Arniel said Friday. “We had a one-goal lead and we were just trying to stay over top of that.”
You have to squint a bit to make the logic hold, but it is possible to do so, and I’ll get to that.
First, some context within Thursday’s game. In the second period, Heinola and Stanley were caught on the ice for a two-minute shift, stuck in Winnipeg’s zone for extended periods on both sides of an icing call. Stanley started the third period with veteran Dylan DeMelo, but the duo were beaten on a one-minute, 45-second shift for the score-tying goal. Stanley’s breakout pass to Kyle Connor landed on the tape but put Connor in a tough spot with Golden Knights defenceman Shea Theodore over his shoulder. Connor might have done more to battle for that puck once it came to him; Stanley might have seen Theodore there and chosen a different play.
Keegan Kolesar pots a hometown goal to get the Knights on the board in the third period. pic.twitter.com/cjxZ4l5pIy
— Golden Knights Radio (@VGKRadioNetwork) December 13, 2024
Five minutes later, Heinola got stuck for a similarly problematic shift with Neal Pionk but escaped after 1:39 without giving up a goal. Josh Morrissey then scored, putting the Jets up 2-1, and Heinola didn’t play another shift in the game. Stanley was part of the PK unit that gave up the five-on-three goal that sent the game into overtime; Winnipeg went on to lose 3-2. Friday’s practice lines implied the Jets will sit Heinola on Saturday against the Montreal Canadiens, playing Stanley with Miller.
Make it make sense, Murat.
In the immediate context of Thursday’s game, I can’t do that — at least, not to a satisfying conclusion. Heinola was caught in his own zone for long shifts, as Arniel said — with and without Stanley — and it was not a good game from him. Stanley was caught in his own zone for long shifts, with and without Heinola, and I didn’t think he had a particularly strong night, either. Hindsight makes this even easier: If Winnipeg wanted to protect its one-goal lead, perhaps sitting both members of its third pair was the play.
In the medium term, I can make things make sense. Stanley is one game removed from receiving a player of the game jacket, in part because of his willingness to fight Mark Kastelic in the immediate aftermath of David Gustafsson’s injury. Stanley also fought the Buffalo Sabres’ Dennis Gilbert last week; to whatever extent that Stanley draws criticism for not being more physical, Arniel has asked him to be more of a pest this season and he’s tried to answer that bell. My own opinion of Stanley’s Gilbert fight is quite cynical; Stanley and Heinola had been torched for a three-on-two goal nine seconds before the tilt.
Dylan Cozens from Zach Benson 🙌#LetsGoBuffalo pic.twitter.com/tvSvq8cc0l
— Buffalo Sabres (@BuffaloSabres) December 6, 2024
Stanley was slow to react to the Sabres’ rush and didn’t take away Dylan Cozens’ stick in front of Winnipeg’s net. Whether it was done with this intention or not, Stanley’s fight immediately drew attention to an attribute he has that most Jets defencemen don’t. Stanley’s more veteran status, his physicality and his role on the PK made him the coach’s choice.
The long-term lens is probably the most important, given that I view Stanley and Heinola as a project at this point in their career. Stanley is 26; I’m more inclined to believe he is what he is — closer to Nathan Beaulieu in on-ice impact than Jamie Oleksiak. Heinola is 23, an age associated with more continued development, but has delivered similarly replacement-level results through his first seven games this season. (It should be noted their impact is difficult to separate, given how often they’ve played together, and Heinola is playing on his offhand side.)
If either player is going to break through their current bottom pair ceiling, it’s Heinola, even as early returns don’t look promising. The Jets’ long-term history makes his Thursday night benching — and Stanley’s continued minutes — worse than it is, though. Heinola’s NHL debut on an awful 2019-20 team as an 18-year-old created unrealistic expectations. The Jets’ awkward development of him during the 2020-21 season, at one point keeping him out of NHL or AHL action for over a month, has left a lasting memory.
Though Winnipeg had previously been able to keep Heinola in the AHL, Stanley lost his waivers exemption three years ago and has been in the NHL since that time. He’s also been protected by the Jets in multiple ways — first, from Seattle expansion, and then from waivers — at the expense of Johnathan Kovacevic and Declan Chisholm. Given that the Jets traded up to draft Stanley in the first place, it seems as though some of his extra opportunity could be perceived as chasing a sunk cost. The reality is that neither defenceman achieved results that imply a long-term, top-four solution.
Can Heinola, still 23, get there? And, if so, how does his benching fit in?
It’s easy to lose track of Heinola’s recent history when thinking about his long-term lack of NHL minutes with the Jets. Heinola’s ankle injury last year (and ensuing infection this year) has stopped the small, young defenceman from taking a big step forward. He missed all of training camp and the first six weeks of the regular season recovering from his ankle infection — this, after playing the entirety of his post-surgery 2023-24 season in the AHL. I don’t think it’s reasonable or realistic to expect instant excellence from any player in that position and the Jets have not received that excellence.
I’m sticking to my cautious long-term approach from before Heinola’s AHL conditioning stint.
Despite benching Heinola on Thursday, Arniel has given him and Stanley more opportunity than either has received in recent seasons. He’s gone to bat for both in the media, multiple times, whether calling himself Heinola’s “biggest fan” or saying he needs Stanley in the lineup, playing Stanley in all eight available games since his return from a “mid-body” injury suffered Nov. 9.
It’s clear to all observers Stanley is ahead of Heinola on the Jets’ depth chart, just as it’s clear to me Stanley is not on track to become a top-four defenceman on these Jets. My view is that Winnipeg’s best six defencemen, when healthy, are Josh Morrissey, Dylan Samberg, Pionk, DeMelo, Miller and then some combination of Fleury, Heinola, Stanley and seldom-used Dylan Coghlan.
Heinola is Winnipeg’s best bet to get a helpful, everyday defenceman from that latter group. He’d probably be in a better position to succeed playing alongside the more veteran Miller on Winnipeg’s third pair than skating on his offhand side with Stanley. The sit-down doesn’t change Heinola’s trajectory and might even be of service. He’s a gamer, trying to establish position to box out bigger forwards well in advance of a shot, and he has NHL-quality offensive instincts. I just can’t look at the AHL season he had last year or the time he’s missed now and get worked up about his minutes at this stage of the season.
Again, Winnipeg is trying to be patient with both players to learn more about them now than previous regimes did in past seasons. It should have close to all of the information it needs about its 6-foot-7, 26-year-old Stanley. Heinola isn’t a known quantity yet — and it’s not reasonable to expect him to be this soon after missing so much time to start the first full-time NHL season of his career.
(Top photos of Logan Stanley and Ville Heinola: Leila Devlin and Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)
