On Tuesday night, the Milwaukee Bucks play the Detroit Pistons in their fourth and final East Group B game in the NBA Cup. If the Bucks win, they advance to the knockout round, but the tiebreaker scenarios can get confusing if they lose in Detroit.
Which three East teams will join the @ATLHawks in the Knockout Rounds of the #EmiratesNBACup?
The following scenarios are applicable for the final day of Group Play games on Tuesday ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/WflN2bP9cH
— NBA Communications (@NBAPR) December 2, 2024
So Bucks coach Doc Rivers has decided to keep it simple. During Tuesday’s game, the Bucks will not have an assistant coach on the bench worrying about point differential or the rest of the league’s results. Instead, they’ll just focus on beating the Pistons.
“I’ve never done that,” Rivers said of having a coach monitor everything else around the league. “Just win. That’s the only thought. Just win the game. It’s not like we’re going to try not to win. You know what I mean? I think most of the teams are playing at about the same time, so just focus on winning.”
That’s something the Bucks (10-9) have done a lot in the last two weeks, so keeping it simple might be for the best. We’ll keep it simple in this space as well with our weekly look at the micr0 and macro trends affecting the team, so let’s play some Ones.
Ten days ago, Giannis Antetokounmpo got excited talking about a play in which Damian Lillard prepares to set a screen for him and then slips out to the 3-point line. That setup has long been a great way to spring a shooter for a great look at a catch-and-shoot 3 in Milwaukee. But there is another option for Antetokounmpo’s partner in the inverted pick-and-roll: stand in there and set the screen.
On Saturday, AJ Green did just that:
Over the years, plenty of screeners have happily benefitted from Antetokounmpo’s gravity and slipped out for 3-pointers, but standing there as opposing bigs turn and sprint to keep up with Antetokounmpo is no fun. That screen will hurt in the morning, yet Green was ready to create a driving lane for Antetokounmpo by putting his body on the line as a roadblock.
“I mean, if I can get him open, that’s a win,” Green said on Saturday night. “Most of the time, if I can get a good screen, I turn around and he’s on the rim dunking it.”
Setting the screen requires a willingness to take a hit as well as a good bit of strength to deal with the ramifications of taking that hit. Becoming truly great at that job also requires learning how to set the screen for Antetokounmpo in different ways.
In the play above, Green displayed one of those more advanced techniques by flipping the screen at the last second. While he approached Alex Sarr’s left shoulder, Green jumped over to the right shoulder at the last second when he saw Corey Kispert attempting to pull off an aggressive show-and-recover move and essentially screened both players, opening up a hole big enough that NFL offensive line coaches would celebrate.
“It’s just knowing how they want to guard, whether they’re going to show and try and blitz him, whether they’re at the level and just the timing of it,” Green said when asked how he has started to master setting different screens for Antetokounmpo. “Letting the defense get out and then just flipping it at the last second, angles of screens, too.“
Pat Connaughton is an occasional playmaker for the Bucks off the bench by mastering all of the techniques and strategies that can be involved in the two-man game with Antetokounmpo as both the screener and the ballhandler. If Green can master those same things, he can be even more dangerous because of his deadly 3-point shooting. He’s off to a strong start in his first stint as a full-time rotation player under Rivers.
Four minutes into the Bucks’ 124-114 win vs. the Washington Wizards, Antetokounmpo drives baseline on rookie forward Alex Sarr as he did many times on Saturday night. When Sarr beats him to the spot and Antetokounmpo spins toward the middle of the floor, Bilal Coulibaly leaves Damian Lillard to double the two-time MVP. Stuck in a double-team with help shifted to the left side, Antetokounmpo turns back to the baseline and peeks to the opposite corner.
Who was there? Taurean Prince.
In the second quarter of Saturday’s game, Brook Lopez swats a Coulibaly attempt at the rim. Antetokounmpo corrals the loose ball and makes his way in transition. After speeding past a few defenders and making his way into the lane, Antetokounmpo jumps in the air and wraps an impossible pass around two defenders.
Who was there? Taurean Prince.
With a six-point lead late in the game to close out the Wizards, Antetokounmpo attacks the baseline from the left wing and encounters a double-team, just as he did in the first quarter. Rather than turning to the baseline, Antetokounmpo steps through the double-team and looks for a teammate to get himself open.
Who was there? Taurean Prince.
And as far as Antetokounmpo is concerned, it’s no coincidence that Prince always seemed to be in the right spot at the right time on Saturday night.
“He’s been incredible,” Antetokounmpo said. “He’s running to the corner. The first one that he hit, he bailed me out, I was almost out of bounds. The second one, he gave him so much space to operate and he went to the corner.
“He’s figured out ways to space the floor for me and Dame. And he knows that there’s gold in the corner and we’re going to find it.”
Rivers has not been afraid to make changes to his rotation this season. If a player is underperforming, that player has been removed from the rotation. If a player has regained their form, they have been given more playing time.
However, among those changes, Prince has remained a constant.
The 30-year-old forward is just one of two players, along with Lopez, to start all 19 games for the Bucks this season. He is averaging 28.8 minutes per game and played fewer than 20 minutes in just one contest this season. He has knocked down at least one three in 17 of the Bucks’ 19 games and hit a league-leading 54.2 percent of his 3-point attempts.
While his per-game averages — 8.7 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.8 assists — are modest, Prince is knocking down the open shots he has been given playing off of Antetokounmpo and Lillard and provided solid defense on the wing. It might not be the biggest contribution, but it has been consistent and that means a lot to Prince.
“That’s big,” Prince said of being one of the team’s most consistent players. “That’s something I’ve been on myself about throughout my whole career, even though I’ve had six different teams in nine years and however many coaches in those years. A lot of people tend to say I’m not consistent, but I mean, I think anyone given a consistent situation and able to find a home in a way, it brings everything into a consistent category.
“The mindset I have this season is different than the ones I’ve had in the past. … It’s not so much thinking about stats or what I need to shoot percentage-wise for the season. This is the first season I’ve come in with no expectations, and I just go out and let God use me as his tool. And whatever I have is whatever I’ll accept.”
One trend: Back-to-normal November
The Bucks’ 2-8 start this season was rough. Outside of their no-show against the Knicks in New York on Nov. 8, their worst performances — a 133-122 loss to the Chicago Bulls in their home opener, a 115-102 loss to the Brooklyn Nets and a 122-99 beatdown in Memphis — all occurred in the first five games of the season during October.
Since the calendar flipped to November, the Bucks have had the league’s eighth-best offense (115.4 points per 100 possessions) and 10th-best defense (111.3 points per 100 possessions), per NBA.com. The first five games of the season count, and the Bucks will pay for their inept start for the rest of the season. But the Bucks have been able to be the team they hoped they could be with top-10 units on each end of the floor since Nov. 1.
On offense, the path to success has been simple.
Antetokounmpo has been spectacular, currently averaging career highs in points (32.9) and assists (6.6) per game, while shooting 60.9 percent from the field. Lillard has been even better in his second season with the Bucks, averaging 25.9 points and 7.8 assists per game with improved accuracy from behind the 3-point line. And the rest of the roster, nearly to a man, has hit 3-point shots at a much higher rate after a frigid start to the season.
On defense, while they are far from perfect, the Bucks have cleaned everything up.
That process started with their transition defense. In the first five games, opponents were adding an extra 7.7 points per game in transition, per Cleaning the Glass. Since Nov. 1, that number has shrunk to only 2.3 points per game. That second number only ranks as the 19th best in the NBA during that period, but it is still a significant improvement from how the team was hemorrhaging points. The Bucks could still do better when teams attack off live rebounds, but this feels like a category that an older team like the Bucks will never end up dominating.
Because of their struggles in transition, teams were shooting an absurd 68.8 percent at the rim (22nd in the league) against the Bucks in the first five games of the season. On top of that, opponents were knocking down 45.5 percent from midrange (25th in the league). Since Nov. 1, teams are struggling to do much of anything inside the 3-point line against the Bucks. With Lopez and Antetokounmpo patrolling the paint, the Bucks are holding teams to 60.9 percent shooting at the rim, the NBA’s fifth-lowest percentage. And with Andre Jackson Jr. and Green playing more prominent roles at the point of attack on the perimeter, the Bucks are now allowing the third-lowest percentage (38.7 percent) on midrange looks.
Those first five games will always be a part of the Bucks’ season-long story. At this point, they are a large enough of the Bucks’ 19-game sample that they can drag down the Bucks’ season-long statistics. But if the Bucks can continue to sustain the level of play they’ve found since the start of November for the rest of the season, those five games will turn into a dramatic outlier.
For now, though, it’s a worthwhile warning of what can happen if the Bucks fail to bring the necessary level of focus and effort to any given game.
(Photo of Giannis Antetokounmpo: Gary Dineen / NBAE via Getty Images)
