New CFP bracket projection looks rough for SEC, plus Brian Kelly's LSU trouble

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Happy Thanksgiving week! Let’s break down last night’s College Football Playoff rankings.

Rankings Review

The SEC’s nightmare

Here’s what the 12-team CFP bracket would look like if yesterday’s new rankings were the final ones:

Who’s in? The committee finally did SMU justice by taking the regular-season ACC champs — that should be a thing in football, shouldn’t it? — off the bubble and giving them the No. 10 seed. The Mustangs are joined by Oregon and Georgia as the only Power 4 teams to have clinched spots in their conference title games before rivalry weekend.

Also new to the field this week is No. 12 seed Arizona State. The Sun Devils are ranked 16th, but earn a spot as the hypothetical fifth-highest-ranked conference champions. That means ASU would earn a seed over South Carolina, Ole Miss, Alabama and Clemson.

First one out? Clemson, which has quietly risen each week in the committee’s rankings and comes in at No. 12 this week, is currently the first team out of the field. The Tigers don’t necessarily control their fate for the ACC title — they’ll need Miami to lose at Syracuse this weekend — but they could strengthen their at-large case with a win against No. 15 South Carolina. No. 13 Alabama is the second team out.

Biggest talking point: Not only was the SEC bumped down to three representatives in the field after last week’s chaos, but two of those teams (No. 8 seed Georgia and No. 9 seed Tennessee) could play a rematch in the first round! And the winner would get the second round’s toughest matchup: top-seeded Oregon. Could we have an SEC-less semifinals? That sounds like Greg Sankey’s nightmare.

Best hypothetical home matchup: No. 12 seed Arizona State at No. 5 seed Ohio State. What would the Sun Devils do … without the sun? Arizona State and Ohio State have played twice before — once in 1980 in Columbus (a 38-21 Ohio State win) and a second time in the 1997 Rose Bowl (a 20-17 Ohio State win). And even though No. 11 seed Indiana is likely out of the running to host, we still have three of four home matchups in the Midwest. Bundle up!

3 Big Stories

Whether you’re traveling for Thanksgiving this week or spending time on the couch after the big meal, here are three stories from The Athletic I’ve enjoyed recently that you can use to pass the time.

1. Why isn’t the Brian Kelly-LSU marriage working?

LSU’s last three head coaches all won national championships by the end of their fourth seasons. But as Brian Kelly approaches the end of Year 3, he looks further away than ever from the crown.

In hindsight, a staff clean-out two years removed from a national title looks more like an overcorrection than a fresh start. The culture isn’t working either, as evidenced by the scuffles on the sidelines between Kelly and the players. Charles Turner, who arrived at LSU in 2019, said he hardly had any personal interactions in two seasons playing for Kelly: “Just, ‘Hey, hi. How you doing?’ That was really it.” Yikes.

At 7-4 with a regular-season finale against Oklahoma on deck, what’s next for the Tigers?

2. Michigan’s big-time flip

Five-star QB Bryce Underwood’s flipped commitment from LSU to Michigan last week only added to the Tigers’ dread.

Underwood is the No. 1 recruit in the 2025 class, per the 247Sports Composite, and will sign in December as Michigan’s highest-rated QB of the modern recruiting era. What sparked the Belleville, Mich., native’s change of heart?

This was NIL-driven, which proves Michigan has evolved from its reluctance toward player bidding wars under former coach Jim Harbaugh. Two program sources said Underwood could earn more than $10 million from multiyear NIL agreements during his time at Michigan. As Wolverines writer Austin Meek detailed, this changes everything for coach Sherrone Moore.

3. The rivalry trophy nobody knows about

For years, the culprit behind the 2013 breaking of Minnesota and Penn State’s rivalry trophy remained anonymous. The snapping of the trophy served as a funny memory to the Golden Gopher faithful and a harsh lesson about the flimsiness of the trophy, one even Penn State starting quarterback Drew Allar couldn’t name last week, when the Nittany Lions claimed the Governor’s Victory Bell trophy in a one-score win against Minnesota last Saturday.

And before rivalry trophies get handed out in earnest this weekend, you have to read Audrey Snyder’s origin story behind college football’s least-known prize.

Quick Snaps

On Monday, Utah coach Kyle Whittingham was asked about his future leading the Utes after a disappointing 2024 season. The 20-year coach left his return in the air, saying his decision would be “based on what’s best for the program, not what’s best for me.”

In other coaching news, Mack Brown and UNC will part ways after this season. The Athletic reports that Tulane coach Jon Sumrall will get a “good look” to be a possible replacement.

The 24-team FCS playoff bracket was revealed on Sunday, with Montana State grabbing the No. 1 overall seed. Check out the full bracket here.

Don’t worry, 4-7 Northwestern, at least your new stadium is one year closer to being done. And for you, 1-10 Purdue, things can only go up from here. What do the Big Ten’s non-CFP contenders have to be thankful for this week?

The early signing period is just one week away. Why is it so early? And what happened to national letters of intent? Get caught up here before the busy recruiting week.

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(Top photo: Steve Limentani/ISI Photos/Getty Images)