2025 NHL playoff preview: Winnipeg Jets vs. Dallas Stars

On paper, this is the closest Round 2 matchup, with just a plus-2 Net Rating separating these teams.

The Jets established themselves as a defensive powerhouse this season, giving Hellebuyck more support than he has had in years. At five-on-five, Winnipeg was stingy, only giving up 2.34 xGA/60. With Hellebuyck between the pipes, the team allowed a league-low 1.72 GA/60.

But a lot of that defensive zone stability slipped in Round 1. Technically, the Jets allowed a lower rate of expected goals against at 2.17 per 60, but there were more glaring slip-ups, especially on the road. Winnipeg allowed some dangerous looks off the rush and left their goaltender exposed to a lot of screened shots, which he responded to really poorly.

The Stars’ offense may create trouble for the Jets’ back end in Round 2. Dallas’ five-on-five offense was top-seven in the league in both expected and actual goal creation over the regular season. That slipped in Round 1 against the Avs, but could rebound as this group gets healthier.

Defense is a potential weak point for Dallas until Heiskanen returns. That became glaring after the 4 Nations Face-Off and remained a problem in Round 1, with the team giving up 3.24 xGA/60 in seven games.

The Stars’ penalty kill wasn’t perfect in terms of shot quality, but goaltending made up for it. The opposite was true for the Jets in Round 1; the team gave up very little but didn’t always get timely saves. That’s something to watch in this series, considering how high-octane the Stars’ power play was against Colorado.

The big question

Can Connor Hellebuyck bounce back?

Playoff reputations are not etched in stone. They can follow a player for years and get stickier with each new disappointment. Redemption, though, is always a possibility. Narratives can change.

There is no denying that Hellebuyck, over the last three playoffs, has not been good enough. That’s his narrative: He is not a big-game player, he can’t handle the heat. His work against the St. Louis Blues was particularly unfathomable; it was Hellebuyck’s worst series yet, with some truly unconscionable goals allowed.

But the Jets are still alive. They survived one of the worst goaltending playoff performances we’ve ever seen, and that’s a testament to the team in front of Hellebuyck. It’s what’s supposed to make Winnipeg different this year. It gives Hellebuyck the opportunity to change his narrative. Every new series is a chance for redemption, and no player needs it more than he does.

One year removed from allowing 6.5 goals above expected in five playoff games against the Avs (or 9.1 per seven games), Hellebuyck allowed 9.8 goals above expected against the Blues — the most he has ever given up in any given seven-game sequence ever. His previous low, minus-7.6, came back in 2017.

Over his last two Vezina seasons, Hellebuyck had 111 distinct seven-game sequences during the regular season. In those, Hellebuyck was below average just five times and his lowest mark is just minus-2.1 goals allowed. That’s who Hellebuyck should be. Who he’s been during the season and who he’s been in the postseason could not be more different.

What Hellebuyck offers to us is an extreme lesson in goalie volatility — and its ability to snowball to truly unbelievable places when the temperature rises. His playoff work goes well beyond general small-sample goalie wackiness. It is so extreme that it cannot be chalked up to ‘stuff happens.’ Stuff like this defies any ounce of logic. It should not happen.

But to Hellebuyck, it has. League-best regular seasons followed up by league-worst playoffs, to these extreme degrees, is not normal. And that makes for a very tricky conundrum regarding expectations for the Jets in this series. Winnipeg’s 50-50 shot against Dallas depends heavily on a Hellebuyck redemption, which does not feel like a safe bet.

While the model did downgrade Winnipeg’s Defensive Rating (from plus-46 to plus-39), it’s clear there is a wide range of possibilities for the Jets depending on which version of Hellebuyck shows up.

Hellebuyck’s projected Net Rating of plus-28 is the base case, one built on regressing his last five regular seasons (with more weight on the last two), where the expectation is he saves 0.37 goals above expected per game. If he can reliably be counted on to repeat this season’s 0.64 per game, Winnipeg’s odds shoot up to 64 percent.

If, however, Playoff Hellebuyck has another unfortunate performance and allows one goal above expected per game (his average over the last three playoffs), Winnipeg’s odds would drop all the way down to 9 percent. Yes, 9 percent.

More than any other team, Winnipeg’s success hinges greatly on the impact of one player — a player whose current impact could not be more unpredictable and whose downside looks tremendous. That the Jets got by the Blues was miraculous. The Stars — a loaded offensive team — are a different beast.

Stopping the high-flying Stars in their tracks is a great place for Hellebuyck’s redemption arc to start. It’s also where things can spiral further downward. It’s on Hellebuyck to decide where his narrative goes next.

The X-factor

How will injuries shift the balance of this series?

The key to winning a Central Division matchup in the opening round? Play Game 7 without one of your best forwards and No. 1 defenseman, naturally.

Credit to both the Jets and Stars for pulling that off — it’s no small feat. Especially given the circumstances both teams found themselves in, down by two in the third period. But pulling that off for a long stretch of time against better competition is a tall task.

In this series, at least to start, the Stars and Jets are in the same boat. The point at which either team will reach shore with a healthy roster is what makes projecting it so tricky. Without firm timelines on Mark Scheifele, Josh Morrissey, Jason Robertson and Miro Heiskanen, we’re left guessing on that return.

What we can tell you is the worst-case scenario for each team.

At full health, the Jets would be favored in this series at 52 percent due to their having home ice advantage. If Dallas starts fully healthy, Winnipeg’s chances would drop to 47 percent without Scheifele, 42 percent without Morrissey and 38 percent without both. That’s for the whole series, which feels unlikely. The more games Scheifele and Morrissey play, the better the outlook.

On the flip side, the Stars (starting at 48 percent) are at 43 percent without Robertson, 42 percent without Heiskanen and 37 percent without both.

None of that is to say neither team can manage without its stars, just that the road to the conference final becomes that much more challenging. We’re expecting the Stars duo back sooner, which is what gets the series to 50-50, but even that forecast is clear as mud.

Whatever happens, this series is so close that whoever returns first (and closest to 100 percent) could end up being the difference.

The rosters

The Stars had two primary problems heading into the playoffs. The right side of the defense was a liability without Heiskanen, and Rantanen, who they brought in to be The Guy at the top of the lineup, had yet to hit his stride, which was extra concerning with Robertson injured.

Rantanen came into this year with a Net Rating of at least plus-19 in each of the last three seasons. He was around a plus-17 at the time of the first trade, with an average Game Score of 1.27, but ended the year at about a plus-10. A few things contributed to that drop-off: a lack of scoring with the Canes despite promising underlying numbers, poor play-driving in Dallas and less ice time since leaving the Avs. With the Canes, his average Game Score plummeted to 0.66; in Dallas, it was 0.70.

But after an up-and-down season with a lot of change and adjustments, Rantanen came to play when it mattered most and eliminated his former team in the process. After scoring a Game 7 hat trick, he ended Round 1 with five goals and 12 points and an average Game Score of 1.37, and paced at a plus-24 Net Rating.

Rantanen is finally adjusting to his surroundings in Dallas and finding chemistry on an all-Finn line with Roope Hintz and Mikael Granlund. That could be a sign he is on track to return to his pre-trade caliber. If this is the Rantanen Dallas can expect going forward — the Rantanen they paid a lot for — we’re probably underestimating their chances here. Rantanen, at a plus-17 Net Rating, swings the series odds four percentage points in the Stars’ favor.

The Stars’ forward depth gives them their biggest edge in the playoff field, which helped them weather Robertson’s absence. Tyler Seguin’s return reunited a productive second line with Mason Marchment and Matt Duchene, which outscored Colorado 2-1 in Round 1.

After a slow start to the playoffs, Wyatt Johnston found the scoring touch that made him stand out last spring. If he can keep that up, he should help turn around a third line with Jamie Benn, who had mixed results against the Avs. Considering some of the Jets’ injury woes, the matchups may not be as daunting, either — the Stars’ third line got a heavy dose of Nathan MacKinnon’s line in Round 1 and had to fight through those minutes with Esa Lindell and Cody Ceci on the back end.

Not only does it hurt the Stars to be without Heiskanen’s two-way skill, but it also forces other defensemen out of their depth. Ceci has been tasked with playing matchup minutes, and in Round 1, the team gave up an xGA/60 of 4.0 with him and Lindell on the ice at five-on-five. Oettinger stopped the bleeding and kept their actual goal rate down to 1.75 per 60, but that may not be sustainable.

Heiskanen’s return will help reset the Stars’ defense and give Thomas Harley more top-four support, whether they are reunited or split across two pairs. But the team has to get by until then.

The Jets got reinforcements back in Round 1 with the return of Gabriel Vilardi and Nikolaj Ehlers, but Scheifele’s status is uncertain.

Scheifele and Connor were dynamic together to open the series. Connor, tied with Rantanen as the league leader with 12 points, comes into this series with a plus-11 Net Rating to lead the Jets forwards. But can he keep that up against the Stars without a true 1C? Connor started Game 7 with Vladislav Namestnikov, but ended up spending most of the night with Adam Lowry, whose plus-3 Defensive Rating leads all forwards in this series. Lowry doesn’t thread the needle offensively, but could help Connor win his minutes against the Stars’ best.

Year after year, Ehlers stands out as one of the Jets’ top forwards in the regular season but wilts in a playoff environment. He proved that wasn’t the case in Game 7, with a gutsy lateral pass to Connor that set up Cole Perfetti’s game-tying goal. It was shaky on the way there, but at the biggest moment, Ehlers delivered.

After being scratched through most of last year’s postseason, Perfetti is showing he can thrive in a playoff environment. He is a shooting threat and is driving to the quality areas, which helped set up both of his Game 7 goals. With Ehlers and Namestnikov, the Jets’ second line earned a 54 percent expected goal rate and outscored opponents 24-14 in the regular season — that’s the kind of production, at minimum, this team needs to counter the Stars’ middle six.

As long as Lowry stays with Connor, the third line won’t be as defensively sound. But if Sunday’s in-game tweaks hold, Vilardi could make it more of a scoring threat.

On the back end, the Jets must also prepare to play without Morrissey, whose status is uncertain.

In Game 7, Dylan DeMelo spent a lot of time with shutdown defenseman Dylan Samberg, and the two were lights-out in 10:37 five-on-five minutes. The Jets attempted 15 shots, limited the Blues to two against and earned 94 percent of expected goals. But that likely leaves the team’s defense too top-heavy against a deep opponent.

Samberg and Neal Pionk, who take on top competition, become the de facto top pair without Morrissey. But the bottom-four configuration is tricky, considering how much the third pair already burned the Jets in Round 1.

Logan Stanley and Luke Schenn were crushed in their third pair minutes against the Blues; St. Louis earned a 60 percent expected goal rate in their minutes and outscored the Jets 4-1. Haydn Fleury can help there and looked composed in Game 7, but he’s no savior — the third pair is still a point of weakness that can be exploited. Against a Stars team with a loaded top nine, it gets even dicier and creates even more problems for a shaky Hellebuyck between the pipes.

The key matchup