The cars have been revealed, preseason testing is complete, drivers are showing off their new colors and the latest season of “Drive to Survive” has dropped. That means it’s time for Formula One to return.
This season begins with more uncertainty than normal and an unusually high amount of competition at the top. After years of dominance from Red Bull and Mercedes, it’s rare to enter a season without a clear favorite. Last year, Red Bull was coming off arguably the most dominant season in F1 history and Max Verstappen followed that up by taking pole position at the first seven races and won seven of the first 10, again making Red Bull a massive favorite at the start of last season. But McClaren closed the gap as the year rolled on, ultimately claiming the constructors’ championship on the strength of six combined wins from teammates Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri.
That late-season performance has made McLaren the favorite to repeat as constructors’ champions and Norris enters the season favored to win on the drivers’ side — but neither is a dominant favorite. Norris’ odds to win his first title are more than even money, which shows how wide open this season is compared to most. On the constructors’ side, McLaren is barely less than even money.
Despite a clear charge from McLaren after Verstappen’s dominant start, Norris was never really in the drivers’ championship last year. Verstappen ultimately finished 63 points ahead of the British driver by the end. How will Norris handle the pressure this season with expectations to win from the first race?
Verstappen has won four titles in a row and has experience in title fights. He famously got his first title on the last race of the 2021 season. Will Verstappen even be in the fight given the diminished performance of the Red Bull car in the second half of the 2024 season?
Verstappen has been pessimistic about the start of the season in recent comments and it will be interesting to see if the legendary driver was being honest or sandbagging a bit, as teams tend to do during preseason testing. At least for now, Verstappen is viewed as a main contender because he has won four championships in a row, not because there are high expectations for the Red Bull car.
The Dutch driver is second in the odds at +333 on BetMGM (as of Thursday morning), ahead of Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc (+450), Lewis Hamilton (+550) and Norris’ teammate, Oscar Piastri (+700).
Drivers’ championship odds
Red Bull is further down the pecking order in the constructors’ championship odds, a clear third behind McLaren (-125) and Ferrari (+120). Red Bull (+800) finished third last season and over the final 14 races was only fourth, also trailing Mercedes. Has Christian Horner’s team made up the ground since then?
Red Bull has an inexperienced driver in Liam Lawson replacing Sergio Perez and joining Verstappen. Lawson has only 11 races in his F1 career and none in a competitive car, so it makes sense for the energy drink team to be viewed as an outsider on the team level compared to McLaren and Ferrari, which have two far more proven drivers.
Constructors’ championship odds
Speaking of Ferrari, the pairing of Leclerc and Hamilton should be fascinating to watch this season. Will Hamilton immediately rejoin the championship fight in what is expected to be a more competitive car than what Mercedes was producing the last few seasons? The odds have Leclerc as a touch more likely to win the championship. Hamilton is a seven-time world champion but also 40 years old and has only two race wins in the last three seasons. This year could show if that was all the result of Mercedes’ mediocre cars or if Hamilton’s ability has diminished.
As for the teams lower down the pecking order, Aston Martin and Williams have matching +10000 odds, theoretically projecting them to battle for fifth. Then it’s Alpine (+25000), Haas (+50000), RB (+50000) and Sauber (+100000).
For predictions on the F1 season to come, Athletic F1 staff writer Madeline Coleman gave her picks for both the drivers’ and constructors’ championships.
Coleman: The 2025 season is anticipated to be highly competitive as the grid continues to converge during the final year of the current regulations. I anticipate numerous race winners, but it’ll be Lando Norris and McLaren who win the world championships this season. The Briton entered the title fight for the first time last season but ended the year 63 points behind Max Verstappen, who now has four titles to his name. Norris knows the driving level needed to take on a championship fight, and after preseason testing came to an end, McLaren seems to still be the team to beat. It has the strong duo of Norris and Oscar Piastri, both of whom are race winners, and to defend its title, the Woking-based team needs a solid all-around car again.
(Photo of Max Verstappen and Lando Norris: Clive Rose / Getty Images)
