The NBA Playoffs start this week with the Play-In Tournament beginning on Tuesday and the first round getting underway on Saturday. The Boston Celtics are the favorite to win the title after finishing the regular season with the best record (64-18).
The defending champion Denver Nuggets are next in the odds on BetMGM at +300. After that, it’s a big dropoff to the LA Clippers (+1200), Milwaukee Bucks (+1300) and Oklahoma City Thunder (+1600). That’s not a lot of love for the Thunder, who have the top seed in the Western Conference, but are making a first playoff appearance with this core. The Thunder were knocked out in the Play-In Tournament last year.
NBA champion odds
The Philadelphia 76ers are tied for sixth in the odds with the Dallas Mavericks at +1800 despite having to go through the Play-In Tournament. Joel Embiid missed two months due to injury but came back for five games in April and averaged 30.4 points and 9.2 rebounds in those games.
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NBA playoffs preview: Play-in predictions, first-round series guide
Play-In Tournament odds
The Play-In Tournament enters its fourth year in its current format. The first games in the Western Conference take place on Tuesday, with the Eastern Conference following on Wednesday.
No. 8 Lakers at No. 7 Pelicans
The New Orleans Pelicans host the Los Angeles Lakers in the first game, with the No. 7 seed going to the winner. Both these teams are familiar with the Play-In Tournament. This is the third straight year the Pelicans have been here, and the Lakers have now made it to three of the four play-in tourneys since winning the 2020 NBA title. The Lakers got the No. 7 seed the previous two times, but this is the first time they will go on the road. The Pelicans got the No. 8 seed two years ago.
No. 10 Warriors at No. 9 Kings
A year ago this was a great first-round series that the Golden State Warriors won in seven games. Now, both teams are just trying to stay alive in this elimination matchup. Both teams finished 46-36 and split four regular-season meetings. The Warriors are slight favorites on the road.
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No. 8 Heat at No. 7 76ers
The Miami Heat had a surprise run to the NBA Finals as the No. 8 seed last year but are back in the Play-In Tournament this year after winning only two more games than last regular season. The Heat are underdogs in this game for the No. 7 seed.
The 76ers come in with the longest active win streak in the league. Philly has won eight in a row, reinvigorated by Embiid’s return from injury.
No. 10 Hawks at No. 9 Bulls
The Chicago Bulls are back in the Play-In Tournament but get to host this elimination game after playing on the road twice last year. The Bulls are favored against the Atlanta Hawks.
Zach LaVine and Patrick Williams are both out for the season with injuries, but the Bulls got just 25 games out of LaVine this season and have a better record without him (29-28) than with him (10-15).
The Hawks have lost six in a row, the longest active losing streak in the league.
First-round series odds
No. 3 Bucks vs. No. 6 Pacers
Odds: Bucks -175, Pacers +145
The Indiana Pacers have been one of the most improved teams in the league this season and are making the postseason for the first time since 2020. The Pacers have been swept out of the first round in three of their last four playoff appearances, and last won a series in 2014.
Milwaukee was shocked in the first round as the No. 1 seed last year and brought in Damian Lillard to give Giannis Antetokounmpo more help. It hasn’t always been pretty, though. At 49-33, this is the lowest win percentage the Bucks have had since 2018. Adrian Griffin was fired in January, and the Bucks are 17-19 since Doc Rivers took over as coach.
Even with those struggles, the Bucks are solid favorites.
No. 4 Cavaliers vs. No. 5 Magic
Odds: Cavaliers -190, Magic +155
One of these teams will get a long-awaited playoff breakthrough. Cleveland hasn’t won a playoff series without LeBron James since 1993. Last year the Cavs got the No. 4 seed and lost in five games to the New York Knicks. They get another shot at it this year against the upstart Orlando Magic, which are in the playoffs for the first time since 2020. Orlando last won a playoff series in 2010.
No. 3 Timberwolves vs. No. 6 Suns
Odds: Suns -115, Timberwolves -105
The Phoenix Suns are a slight favorite in this series despite entering as the No. 6 seed. The Suns were 14-15 after losing on Christmas, but Bradley Beal had missed 23 games and Devin Booker had missed nine games by that point in the season. Since then, Phoenix is 35-18, which is a 54-win pace and would have put the Suns solidly in the top four of the Western Conference.
Minnesota lost in the first round each of the last two years but took a big step forward with 56 regular-season wins. Anthony Edwards will be out to prove he can carry a team past Kevin Durant and Booker in the playoffs.
No. 4 Clippers vs. No. 5 Mavericks
Odds: Mavericks -115, Clippers -105
The other Western Conference series that’s been set is also incredibly close in the odds. Also like Suns-Timberwolves, the away seed is favored. In this case, the Dallas Mavericks are given a tiny edge against the Clippers. The odds on this one contrast with where the Clippers line up in the overall title odds. The Clippers are a few spots higher than the Mavericks despite being a slight underdog in this series.
Kawhi Leonard’s injury uncertainty is a big reason why the odds favor Dallas. Leonard hasn’t played since March due to knee inflammation, and it’s not clear if he will need to miss time in this series. Injuries have devastated the Clippers in the playoffs in recent years. Is it happening again?
(Photo of Jayson Tatum: Stacy Revere / Getty Images)
